Shuffle Up: Positive regression for Matt Ryan

Shuffle Up season is here, my friends. Here’s the idea — how would we rank fantasy players if the season were starting right now?

A few caveats up front. The prices are unscientific in nature, merely used as a way to compare players within their position. I do not compare prices outside of position — a price of a quarterback is only meant to be considered within his positional class. I am generally far less expectant with injury-returning players, so don’t be surprised when I like them less than you do.

Every Shuffle Up is done from scratch. I think it’s counterproductive to justify an old, dated list. I want my current opinions. I considered a modified PPR scoring system for the field players.

And of course, you’ll disagree with plenty on this list — that’s why we have a game in the first place.

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I’ll do quarterbacks and wide receivers in the even weeks, running backs and tight ends for the odd weeks. You can figure out kickers and defenses on your own (keep streaming, streamers; those positions are rarely worth holding for extended periods, and matchups are critical in those streaming decisions).

Comments will follow later in the day. For now, here are your prices. I reserve the right to edit this list as the day goes along; win the debate, you might win the rank.

Catch me on Twitter: @scott_pianowski.

Quarterbacks

$31 Cam Newton
$30 Andrew Luck
$30 Drew Brees
$27 Aaron Rodgers
$24 Tom Brady
$24 Philip Rivers
$24 Matthew Stafford
$23 Matt Ryan
$23 Ben Roethlisberger
$22 Russell Wilson

Last year Ryan had the worst touchdown percentage of his career, a scant 3.4 percent. This year it’s rebounded all the way to 6.8, a personal best. Yes, it speaks to the schedule Atlanta has seen thus far, a highly favorable slate for fantasy production. It’ s about to get significantly harder. But Ryan has a strong chance at Circle of Trust privileges all year, so long as Julio Jones can stay healthy (and to be fair, that isn’t a sure thing). Whatever you paid for Ryan in the summer, it was likely a major bargain.

It crushes my soul to have Wilson this low; he’s one of my favorite players. But with a bad ankle and balky knee, who’s to say when Wilson will be back to his mobile, improvisational self? Seattle has to be happy with an early bye, Week 5 — Wilson needs it as much as anyone. But it’s not like I’m burying Wilson with this rank, and the Doug Baldwin slot, below, shows that I’m still fairly optimistic, even if the Wilson price doesn’t come close to the August number.

$21 Jameis Winston
$21 Kirk Cousins
$20 Eli Manning
$20 Carson Palmer
$18 Blake Bortles
$17 Andy Dalton
$17 Derek Carr
$15 Ryan Tannehill
$15 Tyrod Taylor
$14 Marcus Mariota
$14 Ryan Fitzpatrick
$13 Carson Wentz
$12 Dak Prescott
$12 Alex Smith
$12 Joe Flacco
$11 Trevor Siemian

I’m not sinking the price on Cousins yet because the Redskins are designing home-run plays every week. Cousins just needs to work on his ball position. They’ve been leaving chunks of yardage on the field every week, but so long as Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson stay healthy, those plays will return . . . You’re never as bad as your worst day, and you’re never as good as your best day. Fitzpatrick surely is a player with some fleas, but give him a pass for the mess at Kansas City . . . Tennessee’s offense sure worked wonders in the summer, when opponents were scarcely game-planning or running anything exotic. September, look out below . . . I have Wentz a buck higher than Prescott in part tied to long-term job security; we might see Tony Romo this year. But if you’re only looking at these values for 2-4 week clumps, I wouldn’t fault you for ranking Wentz higher. Both players get high marks for their poise, pre-snap recognition, and overall crispness to this point. I’m reluctant to compare this to 2012’s ridiculous class, but I do think the Browns will regret the Wentz decision for a long time, and most teams will recognize Prescott was absurdly underrated in the spring.

Bortles might be getting worse, as absurd as that seems. And it’s utterly ridiculous that he’s managed just three first-quarter touchdown passes in his career. But I can’t go that low on Bortles for two reasons: any receiving group with Allen Robinson has a chance to put volume on the board, and the Jags have shown they’ll keep pushing the pace, and won’t bench Bortles, even when games become lopsided. London, this is our gift to you: the Jacksonville Jaguars . . . Taylor’s missing his one elite weapon, and Buffalo throws less, on percentage, than any other team in the red zone. Taylor’s rushing ability is nice, sure, but he’s been overrated for a year and change.

$8 Brock Osweiler
$7 Sam Bradford
$6 Cody Kessler
$5 Brian Hoyer
$5 Blaine Gabbert
$4 Case Keenum
$3 Tony Romo
$3 Jay Cutler
$2 Colin Kaepernick
$1 Jimmy Garoppolo
$1 Shaun Hill

Wide Receivers

$50 Antonio Brown
$45 Odell Beckham
$45 A.J. Green
$45 Allen Robinson
$44 Mike Evans
$42 DeAndre Hopkins
$42 Julio Jones
$40 Jordy Nelson
$38 Doug Baldwin
$38 Brandin Cooks
$38 Amari Cooper
$36 T.Y. Hilton

Beckham’s had to share more than usual this year, but eventually that should swing back in his favor a bit — more protection in the offense. Mind you, when faced with a choice between wide receiver opportunity or protection, I’m going to side with opportunity every time. But it’s not like the Giants are ever going to make OBJ a bit player in their offense, even if Ben McAdoo keeps doing some of the nutty things he’s wont to do . . . My injury-careful nature is going to cost me some hits now and then, with Nelson looking like one of those guys. I can live with that. Overall, I still expect a net gain from the approach, and it’s not like some other Round 2 players can’t beat Nelson. But he’s looked close to 100 percent lately. If only the Packers had more receivers we could feel good about . . . I didn’t understand why Baldwin’s target history was held against him, given that the Seahawks clearly unlocked something in the second half of 2015. Through three games, Baldwin is on pace for 144 targets. Even if he doesn’t get to that number, he’s going to, health permitting, smash his career high of 103 . . . Hilton’s Week 3 spike is a good reminder: one strong cornerback is not a reason to bench a foundation player. If the opposing team has a formidable secondary, okay, evaluate further. One good corner? You can scheme away from that. Mind you, the assumption here is that you trust the offensive coordinator and the team’s general approach; Indy doesn’t always get the check mark there, but maybe the talent of Luck and Hilton cancels that out.

$35 Jarvis Landry
$34 Marvin Jones
$33 Kelvin Benjamin
$33 Stefon Diggs
$32 Alshon Jeffery
$30 Eric Decker
$29 Larry Fitzgerald
$27 Brandon Marshall
$26 Julian Edelman
$26 Emmanuel Sanders
$26 Jeremy Maclin
$24 Demaryius Thomas
$24 Willie Snead
$23 Michael Crabtree
$22 Jordan Matthews
$20 DeSean Jackson
$20 Sterling Shepard
$20 Travis Benjamin
$18 DeVante Parker
$18 Randall Cobb
$17 John Brown
$17 Golden Tate
$17 Terrelle Pryor
$16 Tyrell Williams
$15 Michael Floyd
$14 Phillip Dorsett
$13 Sammy Watkins
$13 Mike Wallace
$12 Will Fuller
$11 Allen Hurns
$11 Quincy Enunwa
$11 Tyler Lockett

Lockett wasn’t even targeted in Week 3. I’m all for stashing plausible upside, but it’s a league contextual thing. In many leagues, you don’t have time, or the roster space, to mess around . . . Floyd has looked lost for three weeks, though he gets a pass for Week 3’s concussion. He’s been just about impossible to project for his entire NFL career, no matter that a few big games have come around . . . I’m still not completely sold on Trevor Siemian, but Sanders and Thomas benefit from the most lovely of fantasy WR concepts, the skinny usage tree. The Broncos don’t throw it to many different players, which means Sanders and Thomas can hold onto relevance even if the Broncos hide their quarterback and use a reactive, not proactive, passing game most weeks . . . Yes, Gordon could be great. Everyone I have ranked above him is someone I have confident projections on. It’s not like Gordon has never let us down before.

$10 Tavon Austin
$10 Michael Thomas
$10 Mohamed Sanu
$10 Jamison Crowder
$9 Tajae Sharpe
$9 Victor Cruz
$9 Chris Hogan
$9 Kevin White
$7 Kenny Britt
$7 Dorial Green-Beckham
$7 Steve Smith
$6 Torrey Smith
$4 Anquan Boldin
$4 Brandon LaFell
$4 Nelson Agholor
$4 Cole Beasley

The creative and proactive way Washington has used Crowder in the opening three weeks, I get the idea Jay Gruden & Company have realized Crowder is a better player than even they realized . . . I’d love to link up with a San Francisco wideout, given Chip Kelly’s insistence on playing at a speedy pace. But Blaine Gabbert simply can’t press the ball downfield. I hope you got a good laugh when Gabbert was the No. 2 quarterback in QBR (junk stat) through one week . . . Green-Beckham still frustrates me on a near-weekly basis, but this Philadelphia staff seems to know what its doing. On the downside, it also strikes me as an offense that’s going to be about design and matchups, not necessarily about forcing the ball to specific players. Thus, DGB’s volume could be difficult to trust for a while. This is another case where an early bye week should help a player; remember, Green-Beckham didn’t join the Eagles until Aug. 16.

$3 Adam Humphries
$3 Sammie Coates
$3 Pierre Garcon
$3 Donte Moncrief
$3 Markus Wheaton
$2 Davante Adams
$2 Corey Coleman
$2 Eli Rogers
$2 Devin Funchess
$2 Breshad Perriman
$1 Marqise Lee
$1 Rishard Matthews
$1 Kenny Stills
$1 Chris Conley
$1 Terrance Williams
$1 Brian Quick
$1 Vincent Jackson

Maybe Coleman will make a strong and impactful return from his broken hand. I’m not going to wait for it. Keep in mind, there’s an uncounted week as part of the rehab process, the “prove it” week you usually need to see before you can trust a non-elite player again . . . I’ve called players cooked and regretted it later on, but everything from Jackson through three weeks screams out “game over.” He’s doing just about nothing in an offense that’s playing with its hair on fire and posting weekly volume. Keep in mind, he was not an impactful player last year, either.

*$NP Dez Bryant

I had Bryant at $33 before the Wednesday injury news broke. Until we know more, he’s impossible to price. I know that isn’t going to help anyone at the moment, but it would be a mistake to pretend we had a clear diagnosis yet.