Should Jameis Winston sweat? Don't believe hype on background checks spotting character at scouting combine

The NFL scouting combine begins this week and the activity that yields the least information compared to its hype isn't the 40-yard dash times of nose guards.

It is team executives posturing about how diligently and effectively they are determining "character."

Private investigators. Private interviews. Background checks. Psychologists. Blah, blah, blah.

There is nothing the NFL likes to do more than brag on its self-importance, and no time does the league lay it on thicker than when claiming it is "doing their due diligence" on a prospect.

You can't blame the teams for trying. While the likelihood of catching a clear warning sign of trouble is unlikely, if the guy bombs out, you want plausible deniability (especially with your owner) that you looked hard and were just fooled.

You can blame the rest of us for believing this is anything more than public relations; the NFL's annual hope and pray effort because it's proven it has no ability to accurately predict character.

A year ago it was Johnny Manziel, who was under the microscope over concerns of partying too much and lacking the proper mindset to be an NFL quarterback.

Manziel, well prepped and not dumb, aced the predraft process, of course.

As such, the Cleveland Browns took an undersized quarterback with the 22nd pick and that was only because Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones had been overruled so the team could stick to building through the offensive line. If not, Johnny goes 16th.

It's possible some teams saw Manziel's off-field issues (or figured he lacked the physical tools for the position) but others literally could not have been more inaccurate in their "character" assessment.

After a disastrous rookie season when he admitted he didn't take development and preparation seriously Manziel is in rehab.

So Jameis Winston? Don't worry about him this week; he'll do fine.

Yes, it is Winston's turn to watch everyone puff out their chests this week and talk about how they will finally be the ones who get tough with him. They'll grill him, and say how this is different because it's not the protective womb of college. The truth will supposedly come out, either in the brief media conference or one of those 15-minute team interview sessions that Winston will no doubt be professionally trained to roll right through.

It makes the NFL feel better, though, or maybe it makes fans feel better about the NFL.

The league is unable to judge what these guys are really like. And if talent evaluators insist they do, it is so desperate for talent that it uses confirmation bias to glom onto some kind of positive trait. It's a Hail Mary.

The NFL has been psychoanalyzing and investigating players for decades. Every year it's the same old spin. And yet current and former players have had or currently await trials on essentially the entire penal code: murder, rape, domestic violence, assault and battery, robbery, DUI, weapons charges, drugs, financial fraud and on and on.

The NFL can't predict this stuff. No one can predict this stuff. Every employer deals with it. The fact is, people change, for better and worse.

Jameis Winston will shine during interviews this week. That may be because he is a guy who has matured and is ready to become a Hall of Fame player, leader and community member. It may be because he has a team of advisers who prepped him perfectly. It may be because you'd have to be a complete moron to fail.

No one knows what someone is going to do. That includes the player.

You think Manziel thought he'd end up in rehab in less than a year? You think Winston doesn't believe he'll be a great NFL quarterback who will never again do some knucklehead (or worse) thing?

In 2007, JaMarcus Russell complained about some NFL team having a private investigator tail him and another digging through his personal life. Despite the supposed thorough look, he went No. 1 overall only to become the poster child for draft busts and "purple drank."

In 2012, the New England Patriots handed Aaron Hernandez a $40 million-plus contract. Forget the draft process, they'd had a couple seasons to get to know him. If you believe prosecutors, he'd already murdered two people at the time and would kill another the following summer (Hernandez is currently on trial for one and awaiting trial for the other two).

About a year ago, Ray Rice was a beloved employee of the Baltimore Ravens, their gold standard for community relations. Then video emerged of him knocking out his soon-to-be wife with a closed fist in a casino elevator.

No one knows anything.

In 2012 Vontaze Burfict fell completely out of the draft, mainly because of character and motivational concerns. He signed with the Cincinnati Bengals and appeared in 37 consecutive games before injuring his knee. He's been fined twice for on-field play, but overall has lacked neither character nor motivation, evidenced by his 2013 Pro Bowl season.

Peyton Manning went from boorish behavior in an interaction with a female trainer at the University of Tennessee to one of the NFL's classiest ambassadors. Tom Brady showed up at the combine out of shape. Via determination and dedication, he willed himself to four Super Bowl titles.

To repeat: No one knows anything.

What exactly is the success rate of the NFL's background checks? Is there anything less effective that each year gets repackaged as some serious pursuit?

Jameis Winston is now going to go through the NFL wringer? Please. The Florida State quarterback has been investigated every which way – and by real entities, not just the Tallahassee Police Department.

Pretty much every reasonable mind has concluded the same thing about the 2012 sexual assault allegation against him: Based on the evidence, there's no way to prove what happened one way or the other and thus doesn't warrant charges. You can curse shoddy police work but there isn't much new here.

So spare us the narrative that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or anyone else will conclusively figure out whether Winston is a "good guy" or a "bad guy." Ignore it. Forget it. They don't know. They'll never know. They can't know.

They could be right. They could be wrong. Let's just all admit it's nothing more than smoke and mirrors, just another combine crapshoot.