Seven pitchers currently undervalued in Fantasy Baseball drafts

When it came to looking for bargain pitchers in previous years, I leaned heavily on one my favorite ratios (K-BB)/IP. But I’m pumping the breaks on that a little after working with some of the best football forecasters around who made me come at things in a different light.

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In learning from Cade Massey and Rufus Peabody, it’s wise to collect typically random factors into one bucket when possible, and weigh that bucket slightly, assuming that the group of things now has some predictive value.

Ironically, the stat that does this in baseball is the one that I and many others are quickest to discount: ERA. With that, here are seven undervalued pitchers to target. All recommendations are relative to ADP only.

Junior Guerra, Brewers (ADP: 254) — There are innings concerns, but he didn’t pitch in winter ball and he’s in his 30s. So why will the Brewers worry if he’s healthy? He was ninth-best in ERA last year (minimum 70 starter IP). I know the Ks were subpar barely at 7.4/9. But Aaron Sanchez is 7.5 and going 120 picks higher. Guerra throws 93+ mph and has a swinging strike rate of 10.9%, very good. He also has a top-notch splitter at about a run better than average per 100 pitches. That makes the fastball better and is pretty much all that’s needed to be good.

Tanner Roark, Nationals (ADP: 160) — Way more pricy than Guerra, but has a much higher win ceiling on a very good Nationals team and an easier division in which to pitch. Remember: That’s about half the schedule. He’s not getting you anywhere in Ks but he’s going to hold the fort. Here’s the key with Roark: He’s been better in ERA than in FIP ERA every year. Roark is probably not the luckiest pitcher on the planet.

Carlos Martinez, Cardinals (ADP: 89) — His ADP is exactly his (K-BB)/IP ranking. But you don’t have to worry about his walks hurting Martinez as with a normal pitcher because he is a ground-ball machine. His ISO allowed (slugging average minus batting average) is about .100 for his career — very good. A lot of stat guys will say pitching ISO is meaningless in season-long samples and they may be right in most cases but are almost certainly wrong here.

J.A. Happ, Blue Jays (ADP: 171) — Why is Happ going three rounds after Sanchez? He’s not sexy. But the Ks are about the same. Maybe Happ has evolved into a textbook crafty lefty. His secret seems to be a fearlessness in throwing fastballs (as he’s said in interviews), based on his outstanding strike percentage of 68% when firing them. Happ’s ERA alone says he should be no worse than an 11th round pick and you can wait until round 15 and probably still get him.

Aaron Nola, Phillies (ADP: 143) — He is a sabermetric darling but I would be inclined to be far more aggressive here because Nola is so inexperienced that his bad ERA may be due to inexperience. Meanwhile the Ks and BBs say the skills are elite. So what if it comes together? I can see Nola being a Top 20 starter. His 9.8/9 Ks ranked 20th last year and the control is top-shelf, too.

Vince Velasquez, Phillies (ADP: 172) — The Phillies Pitcher Strategy (PPS) is born. Velasquez was 12th in Ks/9. Maybe his arm falls off. His health was touch and go last year for a while. But he has signature skills, clearly (a 16-K, 0-BB game last year). Happ and Velasquez in rounds 14 and 15 is a nice cheap pitching strategy that balances both floor and ceiling.

Colin McHugh, Astros (ADP: 254) — Reportedly has a dead arm, which could be typical March stuff but stay on top of this. McHugh had 8.6 Ks per 9. Ranked 40th in (K-BB)/IP and 88th in ERA. And his ERA has actually been about a third of a run worse than his FIP the past two seasons. But let’s say half of that is bad luck. Then his projected ERA is 3.85 to 4.05 — call it 3.93. That’s playable along with a a plus K/9 and a reasonable path to wins. And his round 21 or 22 price is essentially free.

When ERA is radically out of whack with the strikeouts and walks that usually correlate, then there’s probably a reason for it. This impacts at most 10-to-20 percent of the pitching pool. For the purposes here, I’m not meaning to say that guys like Michael Pineda and Robbie Ray are definitely again going to be about a run worse in ERA than their peripherals project. But I do believe the odds of this are a lot better than the sharps are betting.

In other words, there is probably something wrong with Pineda and Ray that the strikeouts and walks are missing — but that ERA is capturing. So instead of radically upgrading guys like this and thinking they are truly top 15 pitchers, I’ll just take them at ADP if they fall to me and expect more mild positive regression. Maybe an ERA a third or at most a half of a run worse than their Ks and BBs (FIP ERA).

Conversely, when pitchers are a lot better in ERA than their Ks and BBs say they should be, there is probably something good about them that is predictive. So instead of burning these guys at the stake like many numbers crunchers, I’m assuming the big number (ERA) that we typically train ourselves to look right past actually is bettable with the seven guys mentioned above.