Searching for tight end value in Fantasy Football drafts

Let’s complete our analytics-based positional analysis this fantasy football draft season by focusing on tight ends and market share in order to hopefully find some sleepers and avoid some busts.

[Other positional analysis: zeroRB | Overlooked WRs | Finding QB value]

We’re basing our tight end analysis on the percentage of times that teams throw to the position. A key is that the offensive system in place is not different this year, which hurts, for example, the market-share projection for Delanie Walker given that new OC Terry Robiskie is coming from an offense that threw 15.9 percent of passes to Atlanta tight ends last year. So the absurdly high 37 percent of tight end targets that Walker benefited from and which we highlighted in our piece here last preseason will very likely regress much closer to the league average rate of about 21.6 percent.

Of course, the other factor is overall passing volume. So 27.1 percent of the Patriots’ 629 passes is way more valuable for Rob Gronkowski owners than 27.0 percent of the Chiefs 473-pass offense in which Travis Kelce operates. But I bet the rate stats more than last year’s attempts because the former is more static as long as the players and system haven’t changed. Volume is obviously influenced greatly by game script and thus less predictable.

So that means I like Kelce and Greg Olsen as values relative to their current ADP. I’m in on them and would even draft them both in say, rounds 5 and 6 in one-TE leagues where about 35 wideouts are off the board by then. You can fearlessly slide Olsen into your flex. Walker is in this mix, too, as I’d be surprised if his positional target volume dropped below 27 percent, which is still elite.

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While Adam Gase is gone, the Bears offense is reportedly still the same and their passing volume could spike closer to 600 (523 last year). That makes Zach Miller (sidelined by a concussion) a top-12 tight end when healthy and he’s somehow going TE26. If you want to ignore the position, you can still get winning value with Miller when teams are taking kickers and defenses.

Similarly you can find cheap upside perhaps with Lance Kendricks given that the Rams throw over 25 percent of passes to their tight ends, though it’s fair to say that this is one place where low passing volume seems bettable in 2016. But could the Rams be a 4-12 team? Absolutely. Even 6-10 might make Kendricks a 120-target player.

Kyle Rudolph might be a bit frustrating out there at times but a TE with a 25 percent market share is quite playable so he’s probably a value as the 18th one off the board, on average.

This model also likes Antonio Gates (24.4 percent and probably higher if Gates wasn’t suspended for a quarter of last season) and Julius Thomas (23.3 percent). As Scott Pianowski and I have noted on our Breakfast Table Podcast, Gates needs eight touchdowns to break the TE record and Philip Rivers said that is a team goal. Connect the dots.

I’d love to get a piece of the Seattle tight end market share but I am fading Jimmy Graham due to the historical trends with his patella injury and there is no clear backup, though Nick Vannett (third-round rookie) is reportedly impressing coaches. At least put Vannett on your watch list to start the season.

The model says two guys are being overdrafted: Tyler Eifert (20.6 percent TE targets for his Bengals) and Eric Ebron (16.2 percent). Eifert should not go inside the top 100 given his injury issues in a below-average TE-target environment. Yes, Ebron was a little banged up last year, but he’s banged up again, too.