Scouting Notebook: Pocket presence

So much for running quarterbacks being the kings of fantasy football at the position. We seek these running bonuses, but in Week 9, we paid the price in volatility as Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson ranked 17th, 18th and 21st in QB scoring.

Meanwhile, six of the top seven were passers that hardly move outside the pocket in Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Carson Palmer. Ryan Tannehill is the new hybrid flavor of the month, averaging 22.1 points per week the past four, which is sixth best and slightly better than Drew Brees.

The running quarterbacks are explosive, for sure, but so up and down. When the run is taken away by opposing defenses, schematically, they don’t have much to fall back on because they play on low-volume passing teams that lack the talent and chemistry needed to succeed in a more structured offense within the pocket. So if you don’t need the QB position to win, and you really should not, it’s generally the best practice to pick a pocket QB who will give you the floor you need to claim more wins through more consistent scoring.

[Related: Top fantasy pickups for Week 10]

Many people went off of Brady and Manning because of the weather in Foxboro. I’d say it was due to the forecast, but it was mainly due to some Twitter hysteria fueled by the pregame shows just looking for a story. Kickoff was at 4:30 p.m. EST so why people were worrying about live weather at 11 a.m. is a mystery. And the forecast, as I noted @michaelsalfino, was always for sub-20 mph winds.

We need a chart that we could save and reference that would tell us exactly how much varying wind speeds impact a thrown pass. Hey, I did that over at the Wall Street Journal. So save this link and capture this chart to have a handy guide that basically says that unless the winds are over 20 mph, ignore the weather completely.

And here’s more advice that I owe to Wharton professor Cade Massey, part of the great Massey-Peabody team that ranks NFL teams and makes picks for the Journal. This applies to everything from Ebola to the wind at Foxboro yesterday: Fade the hype.  

I told everyone Sunday morning that I was going to make fun of their hysteria when it proved false and then I did and people got annoyed. There was no god-like power involved here. First of all, I just searched for the forecast for game time. Then I researched the impact of wind on passing (okay, it was research I initiated but, still, publicly available). And then, as I said last week, I remembered the many weather mistakes I’ve made with lineups over years. Four out of five times benching players for weather has been an overreaction by me. That’s why there won’t be a sixth time unless there’s a hurricane. And snow and rain are meaningless, too, when it comes to scoring (and, thus, fantasy).

If I own Arian Foster, I go out of my way to get Alfred Blue. Otherwise, I pass.

I know Charles Sims is the flavor of the month now because we like guys who make a debut and have a path to carries.  But I think Bobby Rainey is the guy to own in Tampa Bay. He’s really good. Sims has the benefit of having the current regime invested in him. But he also has a path to touches as a third-down back. I do note that the Bucs front office reportedly believes Sims is the only three-down back in their roster. But that was before Rainey posted another good game. He’s now averaging 4.6 per carry. Doug Martin is at 2.9. You rarely see a head-to-head, same-team comparison this one-sided. Plus Rainey was the third-down back.

As an angry Jets fan, I’d like nothing more than for Mark Sanchez to tear it up in Philadelphia. He’s a good guy who never had NFL-caliber receiving weapons in New York. But he’s a turnover machine. And talk about fading hype, this Chip Kelly offense is just that this year — 11th in yards per play and 19th in yards per pass attempt. One guy in the Philadelphia offense has been a non-disappointment: Jeremy Maclin. Sanchez did have two picks Sunday. There’s a good chance that, like with most backup QBs, the first time we see him when the defense didn’t have time to prepare is the best we’ll see of Sanchez this year. Sanchez to me is a streaming option who I’d probably rank top 12 this week (Panthers) but I make no bets going forward.

Come on, Jeremy Hill was a layup this week. But this is bad news for Gio Bernard owners as Hill has played his way into more touches. The Bengals running game for our purposes is now weaker.

I’d have bet on Chris Ivory in Week 9. I’m still betting on him. But the Jets coaching staff does not seem to like touchdowns. Chris Johnson is a total waste of time. Many readers know I’ve always liked Bilal Powell, who should be Ivory’s running mate. There is zero chance that Chris Johnson will be a part of the next good Jets team so I don’t get why he gets any carries at this point.

I have no idea what to make of Percy Harvin’s day. He’s probably a WR3 going forward in PPR though. He’ll have a very hard time finding the end zone. Oh, and no targets for Jace Amaro on Sunday is inexcusable.

Don’t cut Branden Oliver. Get him now cheaply. Most backs have games like this and the Dolphins are a top-flight defense. Who is Oliver’s threat? I’ll believe Ryan Mathews is back close to 100 percent when I see it.

This is my weekly Michael Floyd apology and stubborn refusal to drop him. We all have blind spots, I guess. Floyd’s season, especially now with Palmer back, makes no sense to me.

I’d get Kenny Stills. The last three games, he has hauled in 14 of 17 targets for 232 yards and a score. He’s the best vertical receiver Brees has. And he’s getting better still at only age 22.

Hope you listened to me and played Mohamed Sanu. Again, the return of A.J. Green is going to help him because he’ll have less attention. Plus Green is not likely to be 100 percent all year. So Sanu will be a top 20 WR.

Andy Reid is just a horrible person for giving Anthony Fasano 56 snaps and Travis Kelce 30. We know Kelce is the most dynamic receiver by a 100 miles in Kansas City but he’s also the sixth-best run blocker among tight ends, according to ProFootballFocus. Fasano is 38th. Same deal with Amaro (10th best run blocker) and Jeff Cumberland (54th).

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