Scouting Notebook: Donte's inferno

Week 13 was a breakout for a select class of young wideouts. What DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills and Keenan Allen all had in common entering this year was producing at an all-time level for a 21-year-old receiver in their rookie season of 2013.

So the expectation, from me at least, was that we have to age-adjust their stats like we would a super-young baseball player and thus expect star-caliber performance going forward. Unfortunately, going forward is a long time, as much as we’d like that to mean “from Week 1 of the upcoming season forward.”

It’s been rocky at times with all three guys. Hopkins has mysteriously not been given the lion’s share of targets despite elite yards-per-target production all year. Stills entered the season hurt and and afterthought given the new, 21-year-old wide receiver in town, Brandin Cooks. Allen went seven games without a touchdown and, in fairness, was doing very little with his targets. But in Week 13, the trio combined for 25 catches on 30 targets for 521 yards and five touchdowns. Let that sink in for a moment. It’s is truly jaw-dropping.

Stills and Hopkins are elite assets going forward this year given that there’s nothing terribly fluky about their performances. Stills has 691 yards on 57 targets, which works out to 12.1 yards per target. And Stills was 10.4 yards per target before Sunday, a figure that’s super elite. Hopkins is 11.6 yards per target for the year and has been north of 10 all year. Allen does not measure up this way even now but he’ll join Hopkins in becoming only the fourth and fifth wideouts ever to crack 2,000 receiving yards by age 22 (Randy Moss, Josh Gordon and Larry Fitzgerald, excellent company).

This brings us to the current 21-year-old receivers, one of whom broke out yesterday. Yes, the Redskins blew a bunch of coverages and stink. But Donte Moncrief is someone to bold, highlight, underscore and ALL CAPS on your 2015 cheat sheets. He’s 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds (weight correlates to touchdowns as well as height, but obviously are often linked). And he can jump through the building while also posting a 4.4 in the 40. Plus he’s in a high-volume passing offense with Andrew Luck as his quarterback. Forget about T.Y. Hlton, who is a nice little player. Luck to Moncrief is going to be the combination everyone talks about the next 10 years.

Johnny Manziel can win a championship for you if you have been streaming quarterbacks. But don’t stream Manziel. I’ll believe he’s starting when I see it confirmed, however. If he does, with Josh Gordon, I can’t think of many things more exciting on the fantasy football landscape. Brian Hoyer is so bad. But the announcers just want to throw Gordon under the bus and prop up Hoyer, for some reason. Hoyer missed a wide open Gordon right in front of his face for a touchdown that could have turned the game  and this interception was Hoyer’s fault because Gordon should run a nine route with the safety facing him.  He’ll blow right buy that guy. I do not claim to be Mr. Xs and Os but this seems pretty rudimentary. Johnny Football is not going to check down out of home run plays, I can guarantee that.

Week 13 was one of the highest-scoring fantasy weeks ever. Let’s look at some of the other stars.

Tre Mason had the benefit of playing a team that was in give-up mode - the bad teams that are going to have new coaches lay down the second it seems like they’re going to lose. We have to factor this into our calculations, especially when assessing run defense, which is mostly “want it.”

I love Le’Veon Bell but he has one of the all-time pitiful yardage-to-TD ratios. He has 1,686 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns, or one TD every 337 yards. We’ll have more than this in Splitsville later in the week. Do not use this to inform your rankings for the rest of the season or in 2015. The touchdowns have to catch up a little bit, right? RIGHT?!?

I still want nothing to do with Calvin Johnson next year at his ADP. Again, the tall receivers age poorly. There have been 18 players 6-foot-5 or over who had 50-catch seasons before age 30 and just seven did it at age 30 and the numbers get worse from there. Large players age poorly because their knees and other joints take a beating. There is a lot of risk to price into them far earlier than for shorter, smaller players. And don’t think of all the exceptions and even basketball players who’ve aged well. We know some do. But most don’t.

What can you say about C.J. Anderson? He’s a beast. And finally the Broncos have a back who can take full advantage of this insanely good environment in Denver. But why did the coaches tell NBC that they can’t wait to get Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman back in the mix, and that Ball is their best guy in pass protection. Was this an elaborate practical joke? I refuse to even consider it.

Coby Fleener is a good downfield weapon with good athleticism but really only valuable the further you get away from the line of scrimmage. This is a tough way for a tight end to make a living. Fleener’s one of the stranger players I have seen.

Jordan Reed is valuable when healthy, though often volatile. I think Colt McCoy is a good fit for him, though, especially with DeSean Jackson very questionable now. Get him off the waiver wire if he’s available.