Scouting Notebook: Anderson takes charge in Broncos backfield

To paraphrase Tolstoy (though this is way better than anything he ever wrote), all NFL weeks are crazy but Week 11 was crazy in its own way.

If you would have asked me 20 questions about the week, I would have gotten 18 or maybe 19 wrong. But the one I got right arguably made up for all the misses because it was Jonas Gray and the Patriots desire to pound the snot out of the Colts with the run.

Yes, I meekly said “at least 80 yards and a touchdown” for Gray on Twitter @michaelsalfino. And, yeah, the writing was on the wall if you make any note of the postseason games after our fantasy years are over. The Patriots did exactly the same thing to the Colts last year. So clearly they were going to at least try it. So I played Gray in all my leagues on Sunday, though to be fair I don’t really care much about running backs so his downside was pretty meaningless.

Ranking Gray going forward is tough. I’ll say top 12, which is a very low bar this season. Alfred Morris is the 12th running back in half-point PPR (a great name for a baby, expecting fathers) in our Stopa 10K league (a terrible name for a baby). Morris doesn’t really catch either. And he barely gets touchdowns because the Redskins stink while Gray, who should at least be between-the-tackles back/clock-killer/goal-line back, plays in an offense that’s scored about 250 points the last six games. So how can you project him for less than a TD every week off of a four-TD game where he basically converted everything? Hat tip to ESPN Stats & Info for their note that aside from the Gray and the Chiefs, all other teams this week COMBINED for one rushing TD.

I’ll still take C.J. Anderson over Gray. Montee Ball looks like he’s done and Ronnie Hillman is reportedly done, too. Anderson also catches and is built for goal-line action.  The Denver beat guys are on board, so the coaches must be, too. It’s all systems go. Anderson is easily a top seven running back the rest of the way considering seventh is Andre Ellington. You trade Anderson for Ellington today and I’ll break stuff, I swear.

I guess I have to talk about Adrian Peterson. We should create a suspended roster spot for post-draft where the owner doesn’t have to drop him but doesn’t have to worry about him sucking up a roster spot. The idea that Peterson can come back and win someone a league off waivers doesn’t sit right to me, but I get that’s a minority view. But remember that the dynamics of this issue from a public relations standpoint are unchanged and there’s really no chance the Vikings can keep Peterson after this year given his $15 million cap charge. And the NFL doesn’t seem to want him back. I just can’t see Peterson playing this year, but I’ve been wrong on this stuff before, loudly. And let me finally note that this article says Goodell hears domestic violence policy appeals, assuming he gets the DVP suspension now. …

Speaking of suspensions, as buddy Patrick Mayo of The Fantasy Sports Network tweeted (@ThePME): “Merry Josh Gordon Week.” I’m a little worried because the Browns are one of the dumbest teams in the league in not finding out anything about Johnny Manziel this year in favor of an obvious low-ceiling type like Brian Hoyer and in losing receiver Charles Johnson off their practice squad to the Vikings. Johnson, who is big and fast, looked awesome yesterday. Gordon and Johnson catching passes from Manziel would have been amazing to watch. I can see Gordon “being worked in slowly” so as to “not disrupt the chemistry” the Browns have “developed” (ha ha) on offense. But Cleveland can’t hurt me anymore.

Mark Sanchez looked like he was back in the Football Follies again. It’s a good setup in Philly but not a great one. Chip Kelly isn’t quite “all hat, no cattle” but he’s at least “big hat, small cattle.” Kelly has designed an above average offense, period. You have to back out all the special teams and return TDs from their scoring when assessing their offense, remember.

This hit on Emmanuel Sanders was frightening. But Sanders may play this week or be out a month. There’s little to know this early in the concussion process.

Jordy Nelson has lost two TDs the past two weeks to pass interference. But how awesome can you be?

Alway dangerous to talk about a Monday night player on Monday afternoon but Martavis Bryant seems underrated rest of season to me. He should be in the top 20. He’s like Kelvin Benjamin if Benjamin couldn't be doubled and had a good QB.

Alfred Blue was another cheap RB pickup last week. Arian Foster’s injuries linger so don’t drop Blue until Foster starts and plays a whole game.

What better time to clear up some more ZeroRB misconceptions. I’ll do this in instruction manual format:

1) There’s always going to be anecdotal evidence that zeroRB works or doesn’t work. But the point is just increasing point probability with each draft pick.

2) ZeroRB guys aren't dogmatic about it. If the model says the RB has the higher projected points after adjusting for the historic risk in these projections (risks mostly associated with injury), they’ll take the running back.

3) That's why the "what if everyone drafts zeroRB" stuff is a joke. If everyone did, then the highest point-probability pick would be a RB way before Round 6, obviously.

4) So ZeroRB is just a shorthand for a draft strategy that attempts to draft the highest point-probability selection (excluding QBs, K, D/ST) with each selection. It got its name because the result at the moment in our RB-obsessed world is generally not taking RBs through five rounds not because it’s some religion, but only because other owners are overvaluing running backs by not risk-adjusting RB projections.

5 ) "What if everyone does zeroRB" is like worrying about everyone going to the same diner today for a cheeseburger. Yeah, there would be chaos, but that’s not going to happen.

Why don’t the Colts play Donte Moncrief, I wonder. Did they not get the memo this year that rookie wideouts are fine? Are they even watching football?

Travis Kelce is still bound and chained. This probably isn’t changing no matter how obvious it seems to us that he should be featured. But we have to keep playing him in case KC wises up.

Rob Gronkowski here was blocking the guy who broke his arm on the extra point in 2012.  … That Gronk block is so awesome it should be worth six fantasy points. And Gronkowski again showed he lays it out to get into the end zone no matter what the score. That’s why we love him.

Trent Richardson is a top 20 back the rest of the way, yes. But big deal. That’s not winning anything for you this year.