Who is buying that the Patriots are reportedly 'not expected' to trade Jimmy Garoppolo?

The NFL scouting combine got underway in Indianapolis on Tuesday, with the first groups of players arriving in the city for their rigorous four-day job interviews. From a media/viewer standpoint, the action really got underway on Wednesday morning, with new Denver Broncos head coach Vance Joseph appearing in front of cameras and reporters.

Over Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, general managers and/or head coaches from 29 of the NFL’s 32 teams (Washington, New Orleans and New England are the exceptions, at least according to the schedule the league circulated) are expected to be at a podium to discuss the draft and their respective teams.

But one of those three podium-holdout teams, the Patriots, is already part of the buzz this week, thanks to a couple of tweets. It began with ESPN’s Adam Schefter, who reported that the Patriots will not trade backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo:

As others, naturally, saw this as a bargaining tactic by the Patriots and that maybe they weren’t being offered a sweet enough deal to trade Garoppolo, former New England coaching staff assistant and longtime friend of Bill Belichick Mike Lombardi, tried to squash that notion:

Lombardi said the report about the Patriots holding onto Garoppolo isn’t about trying to get more in return from trade partners, but because he’s a “really, really good” player.

New England may well hang on to Garoppolo, a second-round pick in 2014, but we have a hard time believing that’s what happens in the end. Garoppolo’s rookie deal is up after the 2017 season, at which point the Patriots would either let him walk (and get maybe a fourth-round compensatory pick from the league in return), sign him to a generous deal to stick around as the No. 2, or perhaps franchise him.

But who believes the Patriots will pay a backup player the $20 million franchise amount or $8 million to $10 million a year over a few years? Yeah, us either. And why would Garoppolo settle for maybe $8 million when he can make twice that as the starter elsewhere?

Which brings up another probability: would New England hang onto Garoppolo and trade Brady? That seems highly unlikely. Belichick has shown a willingness to trade anyone, but it would seem that Brady is the one player to whom that rule might not apply.

So if the odds are seemingly against the Patriots letting Garoppolo walk for a relatively small return or signing him to a big-money deal to sit as Brady’s backup for a few more years or franchising him or trading Brady, what’s the natural solution? Trade Garoppolo this year, when several teams are desperate for a quarterback, the draft class at the position is poor, and you can almost certainly get a first-round pick in return.

It makes too much sense not to happen. Then again, I still distinctly remember the Sunday morning in 2009 when I had to pull over to the nearest Panera Bread and use the free wi-fi to report that New England had traded franchise stalwart Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders.

Moral of the story: Belichick can be full of surprises.

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