Ranking every fight and picking every winner at UFC 205

It was only four months ago that everyone was buzzing about UFC 200 being the greatest card the UFC had ever put together. It turned out to be not so great, but all the hype came before Jon Jones dropped out of a potentially memorable light heavyweight title bout with Daniel Cormier after a failed drug test.

It not only wound up being just another show, but Jones and Brock Lesnar each had failed drug tests. Jones on Monday was given a one-year suspension for that failure.

On Saturday at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan, UFC 205 will become the company’s first card in New York City and the first since a nearly 20-year ban on MMA in the state was lifted in April.

This card has three title fights, the first time in UFC history that three championship bouts were held on the same card. It also has a series of fights good enough to be the main event on lesser shows.

With that in mind, here is my ranking of each bout on the card, from least interesting to most. I take into account the potential for an exciting fight, the probability of a finish, the significance to the sport and fan interest in putting these rankings together. As a note, Rashad Evans fell off the card on Tuesday because of a medical issue and won’t fight Tim Kennedy, as scheduled.

12, Vicente Luque versus Belal Muhammad, three rounds, welterweights — Luque is a late replacement for Lyman Good, who was yanked from the card because of issues with a drug test.

Luque is a powerful striker who has won three in a row after losing his UFC debut in The Ultimate Fighter Finale.

A wrestler, Muhammad lost his debut to Alan Jouban but came back to defeat Augusto Montano.

Prediction: Luque by knockout.

11, Rafael Natal versus Tim Boetsch, three rounds, middleweights — This is a battle of two veterans who are middle-of-the-road type guys. Boetsch ended a three-fight losing streak in July when he defeated the late Josh Samman, while Natal was beaten by Robert Whittaker in April, ending a four-fight win streak.

Neither is a star-caliber fighter and won’t overwhelm anyone with their skills, but they’re solid veteran fighters. It will come down to whoever implements his game plan and makes the fewest mistakes.

Predicition: Natal by decision.

10, Liz Carmouche versus Katlyn Chookagian, three rounds, women’s bantamweights — This is a striker versus grappler match, and ends a long layoff for Carmouche.

Carmouche hasn’t competed since ending a two-fight losing streak by defeating Lauren Murphy. Chookagian made her UFC debut on July 13 with a decision victory over Murphy.

Carmouche will try to get the bout to the ground where her grappling ability and physical strength could carry her to victory. Chookagian is a decorated striker who is known for punches as well as kicks.

Prediction: Chookagian by decision.

9, Jim Miller versus Thiago Alves, three rounds, lightweights — Miller is one of the most consistently exciting fighters in the UFC. He’s won eight fight night bonuses and in 24 UFC fights (which includes one no-contest), he’s been involved in 12 finishes.

He’s got great submissions and is a willing stand-up fighter. But that may not be a wise move against the powerful Alves, who is a massive fighter moving down in weight.

A caveat on this is that Alves has had great difficulty making weight in a higher class, so he’s no guarantee to make it here.

There are no real title implications in this fight. It’s simply a fun bout between two offensive fighters with contrasting styles, both of whom need a win.

Prediction: Alves by TKO, with the asterisk being if he makes weight without issue.

8, Miesha Tate versus Raquel Pennington, three rounds, women’s bantamweights — Tate will be fighting for the first time since she lost the title to Amanda Nunes in an inexplicably poor performance in July at UFC 200.

Tate has the better resume and the more complete game, but Pennington has quietly been improving. She’s won three in a row since losing a close decision to Holly Holm and can’t be overlooked.

Tate, though, is among the finest female fighters in the world. She’s got wrestling, stand-up and submissions and is as tough as there is. If she wins, she’ll once again be in the title picture and may get the winner of the title match between Nunes and Ronda Rousey at UFC 207.

Prediction: Tate by TKO.

7, Kelvin Gastelum versus Donald Cerrone, three rounds, welterweights — This is a battle between fighters who have the look of future welterweight title contenders.

Cerrone moved up to welterweight after a loss to Rafael dos Anjos in a lightweight title fight on Dec. 19, 2015, and he’s won three in a row, all impressively. He’s also won 11 of his last 12 and finally has matured into the consistent fighter he never could become as a young fighter.

Gastelum, who has had trouble making weight on occasion, is coming off an impressive win over ex-champion Johny Hendricks.

Cerrone has a varied game and is good in all positions, and has seemed better fighting at the higher weight.

Prediction: Cerrone by decision.

6, Frankie Edgar versus Jeremy Stephens, three rounds, featherweights — This has the potential to be an incredible slugfest. Edgar, a former lightweight champion, is like the UFC’s version of Rocky. He seems on the verge of being stopped and roars back to turn the fight around.

Stephens is a big, powerful hitter who has been wildly inconsistent. He’s lost three of his last five, but his two wins were massive, over Dennis Bermudez and former bantamweight champion Renan Barao.

Edgar has a complete game, but he does get hit a lot and Stephens is a powerful puncher. Edgar is coming off a disappointing loss at UFC 200 to Jose Aldo. He needs a win to stay in the title picture.

Prediction: Edgar by decision.

5, Joanna Jedrzejczyk versus Karolina Kowalkiewicz, five rounds for the UFC strawweight championship — This fight is a match of two fighters from Poland, and figures to be a stand-up match for as long as it lasts.

Jedrzejczyk appears to be on the verge of stardom. She’s been as dominant as any active champion and despite being a striker, proved in her win in July over Claudia Gadelha that she can handle wrestlers.

Kowalkiewicz scored an impressive victory over Rose Namajunas to earn the shot at Jedrzejczyk, but Jedrzejczyk is on an entirely different level.

Prediction: Jedrzejczyk by knockout.

4, Khabib Nurmagomedov versus Michael Johnson, three rounds, lightweights — Nurmagomedov came close to fighting Eddie Alvarez for the lightweight title, and produced signed contracts for bouts at UFC 205 and UFC 206 in Toronto.

Nurmagomedov is 23-0 and one of the best submission artists in the game. He’s well-rounded and relentless and keeps coming and working for submissions.

Johnson is a great athlete with speed, power and explosiveness, but he’s also inconsistent. When Johnson is on top of his game, he’s as good as anyone in the division. He was spectacular in a KO of Dustin Poirier in September.

If Nurmagomedov wins, he’ll likely be next for the lightweight belt, but that is no guarantee, particularly if Conor McGregor wins. Johnson almost certainly wouldn’t get the title shot but he’ll help himself immeasurably.

Both will go hard for a finish and it should be a frantic, high-paced fight.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by submission.

3, Tyron Woodley versus Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, five rounds for the welterweight title — This is a fascinating matchup. Thompson is the highly touted fighter who is one of the hottest fighters in the UFC. Woodley is the star wrestler who happens to have one-punch knockout power.

Woodley hasn’t been active, as he sat out for 17 months in order to wait for a title shot. It was worth the wait as he knocked out Robbie Lawler to win the belt.

Thompson, who trains with former middleweight champion Chris Weidman, has been devastating recently. He’s won seven in a row and has looked increasingly strong in doing so.

There are many potential big fights for the winner — How about potential matches with Georges St-Pierre, Nick Diaz and Lawler, to start out with? — and it figures to be a great action bout.

Prediction: Thompson by decision.

2, Chris Weidman versus Yoel Romero, three rounds for the No. 1 contender’s spot in the middleweight division — This is another outstanding fight with great signficance. Weidman is the hometown boy who figures to get a massive ovation from the hometown crowd. Romero is an Olympic silver medalist wrestler who is unbeaten in the UFC and has great knockout power.

The winner will become the No. 1 contender for the belt, currently held by Michael Bisping.

It’s a nearly dead-even bout, but it could swing Weidman’s way because Romero has shown a tendency to fade late in fights.

Prediction: Weidman by TKO.

1, Eddie Alvarez versus Conor McGregor, five rounds for the UFC lightweight title — It’s always difficult to pick against a McGregor fight as the one to look forward to the most, given that he always delivers exciting performances and no one hypes a bout better than he does.

This bout has the makings of a classic. Alvarez has been on the scene for years, but hasn’t always gotten the respect he’s sought. He’s fought elite opponents everywhere and more often than not, he’s come out on top.

He has good hands, like McGregor, but he brings the added dimension of top wrestling. If McGregor has shown a weakness during his time in the UFC, it’s that he’s susceptible to the takedown.

McGregor not only has good hands, but his kicks can be lethal. He hasn’t had to go deep in fights too often, which could favor Alvarez, but part of that is because he’s finished his fights quickly.

The fight has great significance, with it being for the lightweight title and could make McGregor a two-division weight class champion. There is a high likelihood of a finish and it could be of the highlight reel variety. The intensity in the arena is going to be through the roof. This was an easy choice.

Prediction: McGregor by TKO.