Rangers vs. Senators: 8 keys to victory in Stanley Cup Playoff series

(Ed. Note: Welcome to Round 2 coverage of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, where we flip the format and get right to the point with eight keys to each series. Enjoy!)

It’s been five years since the New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators met in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but here we are, only this time they’re playing for a spot in the Eastern Conference Final.

The Rangers grabbed the first wild card after a 102-point season and dispatched the Montreal Canadiens in six games. Ottawa finished four points behind the Habs for second in the Atlantic Division and dispatched the Boston Bruins after winning three of the six games in overtime.

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Both scored about the same in Round 1, but just as important did a good job keeping the puck out of their net. The play of Henrik Lundqvist and Craig Anderson may be the number one key for each team that determines their survival this round.

On that note, here are 8 keys to victory for the Rangers and Senators.

1. Stopping Karlsson.

Despite playing with hairline fractures in his heel, Erik Karlsson was otherworldly in Round 1; so much so that apparently some writers just discovered that he’s really, really good and maybe deserved another Norris Trophy along the way. He was the only player in Round 1 to play 30 minutes a night (30:23) and four of his six assists either tied the game or led to a game-winning goal. So, yeah, he made an impact.

Karlsson says he’ll be fine when Game 1 arrives, which isn’t good for New York because as Travis Yost pointed out, the Swedish blue liner has had a lot of success in his career against the Rangers.

2. Trade pieces leading the way.

Derick Brassard and Mika Zibanejad were traded for one another last July. It was a move where the Rangers went younger and the Senators took on three more years at $5 million with Brassard (Zibanejad is RFA this summer) because the feeling was they needed a veteran forward up front to contend. Through one round, both players are the leading scorers for their respective clubs. Zibanejad has a goal and four points while Brassard scored twice and assisted on six others.

Putting up big numbers in the postseason is nothing new for Brassard, and with both helping their respective clubs through Round 1, that will need to continue to further define why both general managers went out and acquire these players.

3. Putting the power in power play.

The Rangers ended their power play drought as they finished off the Montreal Canadiens in Game 6. Entering the series-clincher, New York was fruitless in 14 opportunities before Mats Zuccarello’s second period tally. That could be the start of the unit moving back to its 20 percent success rate it had during the regular season. At least that’s what the hope is.

Ottawa meanwhile went 5-for-23 against the Boston Bruins, up from their 17.7 percent rate from Games 1-82. They were much better away from Scotiabank Place than at home (33.3 percent vs. 9.1 percent).

The penalty kills were fine in Round 1 (85 percent for New York and 81.3 percent for Ottawa) and both teams have the personnel to counterattack for shorthanded opportunities. New York scored nine shorthanded goals and Ottawa tallied six during the regular season.

4. Anderson, MacArthur writing their Hollywood scripts.

Craig Anderson played only 40 games during the regular season as he took two leave of absences to be with his wife Nicholle, who’s been battling nasopharyngeal carcinoma. MacArthur suffered another concussion during training camp and didn’t return to the Senators’ lineup until April 4.

Both have been great stories to root for this season and they’ve also been key factors for Ottawa. Anderson was stellar when he played, posting a .941 even-strength save percentage and five shutouts. That continued into Round 1 with a .938 ESSV versus the Bruins. Meanwhile, MacArthur scored his first goal in nearly two years during the Senators’ Game 2 win over Boston and followed it up with the overtime series-clincher in Game 6.

Anderson will have his work cut out for him trying to best Lundqvist, while MacArthur will continue his comeback on a line with Brassard and Bobby Ryan.

5. Beating Lundqvist.

The King was third among goalies in Round 1 with a 5-on-5 high-danger save percentage of 90.24 percent, per Corsica. He was also a .952 at even strength, helping to suffocate the offense-starved Canadiens. The Senators will find it difficult to score this series. For as good as Anderson’s been, Lundqvist, when he’s on his game, can carry a series.

New York allowed 34 shots per game in Round 1. Ottawa fired 31 shots a night on Tuukka Rask. The Rangers defense allows for chances for opponents, which Lundqvist was able to bail them out of against Montreal. He’ll likely have to do that again.

6. Which Bobby Ryan will we see?

In a long list of early Conn Smythe choices, Bobby Ryan has to be included. He scored four goals (two game winners) and posted seven points in six games. That’s a heck of a return after a regular season where he scored 13 goals and 25 points in 62 games.

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His production has returned playing with MacArthur and Brassard on the top line – the line that carried the Senators in Round 1. That’s important for Ottawa, as they’ll need as many scorers as possible to step up in this series beyond the usual suspects.

7. Shot suppression.

Only the Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild suppressed more 5-on-5 shots in Round 1 than the Senators (103). The Rangers, meanwhile, allowed the most (161). Thankfully for New York, Henrik Lundqvist is behind their defense and only allowed seven goals at even strength, per Corsica.

You can rely on “Stupid Sexy Lundqvist” at times, but hoping he can stop everything isn’t a good strategy. The Rangers’ defense will have to aid their goaltender especially since their team possession numbers haven’t been positive. Puck in, puck out is vitally important for that unit in their own zone and much be improved.

8. Prediction.

Rangers in 6. Lundqvist may return a little bit back down to earth this series, which would help Ottawa, but New York improved after some changes following their Game 3 loss against Montreal. They’ve been a much better possession team and heir speed was evident. Their defensive unit will be tested, but they were able to find a way to get a goal when they needed it.

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