Rams' pick of RB Todd Gurley is biggest risk/reward of draft

CHICAGO – Todd Gurley's mouth curled into a sly smile when he was asked Thursday afternoon at the Palmer House here about breaking the running back jinx.

"It would mean a lot," he said. "Just to running backs period."

A few hours later, he changed from a sweatshirt and jeans into a suit, and changed from a draft hopeful to the biggest risk/reward pick of the year. Gurley became the first first-round running back selected since 2012, and he became a litmus test for the whole position.

Skeptics can say Gurley's injured knee makes him damaged goods, but no one can argue how good the goods are. His college stats line up favorably with Adrian Peterson's, his blend of power running and pass-catching lines up favorably with Marshawn Lynch's, and his track-and-field-to-Athens background lines up favorably with the great Herschel Walker. Put him on the turf, in St. Louis' domed stadium, and there is potential for Gurley to be the best player chosen in any round this year.

Running backs have been devalued lately, but their worth has been unjustly minimized. Good playoff teams almost always have good rushers, as Seattle, New England, Green Bay and Dallas show. All four of those teams had power runners who could control the pace of a game in January, and the lone exception, the Indianapolis Colts, went out and got Frank Gore this offseason.

Behind the devaluing of running backs is a devaluing of the pure rusher in college football. The spread offense has created more opportunities for the east-west back, and fewer showcases for the north-south basher. So the blocking schemes are evolved, the quarterback strategy is evolved, and the running back prototype is evolved.

But the prototype at the next level is not different. A big runner with explosive speed and soft hands will always be valuable in the NFL, and Gurley is that. So is Melvin Gordon, and the San Diego Chargers showed their need for a top rusher when they traded up to grab the Wisconsin back with San Francisco's pick at No. 15. That makes two running backs in the top half of the first round – one fewer than the number of wide receivers.

The takeaway is this: running backs still matter. It's just harder to find the right one than it used to be.

Rams head coach Jeff Fisher told reporters that Gurley, "comes around only once in a great while."

Of course Gurley brings risk. He said Thursday there is no timetable for when his knee will be 100 percent, and although there's no reason to think he won't get there later this summer, one ACL tear can lead to another. That's what happened with Robert Griffin III, and we don't yet know if he'll ever find the world-class speed he had as a prep.

"It's been looking pretty good," Gurley said of his knee. "I'm looking forward to [training] camp, but I'm not going to rush anything."

For every Robert Griffin III, there's a Frank Gore. The former Miami rusher, like Gurley, came from a run-happy system with a traditional pro-style offense. And, like Gurley, he had an ACL tear in college. (Gore actually had multiple tears.) The chances of Gurley turning out like Gore, or better, make him worth a top-10 pick. His 3.9 yards-after-contact last season before his injury is as close at it comes to statistical proof.

Then again, there's even better proof that the running back jinx was always overrated. Just look at the power rushers in the NFL, and the playoff shares in their bank accounts.