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Puck Lists: 5 goalies who are over- and underperforming

Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk (40) during the third period of a NHL hockey game against the Buffalo Sabres, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2016, in Buffalo, New York. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk (40) during the third period of a NHL hockey game against the Buffalo Sabres, Thursday, Oct. 27, 2016, in Buffalo, New York. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

The goaltending position is the most important in hockey by a pretty wide margin.

No single position is going to make or break your season more so than netminders, and now that we’re a quarter of the way through the season, some issues are starting to become pretty apparent. Some teams are getting reliably great goaltending even if the teams themselves aren’t that good (*cough*therangers*cough*) and others are getting bad goaltending we should have expected all along even though they’re actually pretty good (*cough*thehurricanes*cough*).

But then there are plenty of teams in the middle, for whom goaltending was always going to fall somewhere between the extremes of great and putrid. That is to say, lots of average-ish goalies can be either better or worse than they “should be” for big chunks of the season, and that’s certainly playing out right now.

As a result, I think it’s safe to say the league standings are a little weirder than many might have thought. So let’s have a look at five goaltenders who are playing above their heads, and five who really should have been better by now.

OVERPERFORMING

5. Chad Johnson (.930)

Not that Chad Johnson is necessarily a bad goalie, or anything close to it. His career average entering this season in Calgary was a solid .917, mostly in a backup role.

But he got the chance to start the bulk of Buffalo’s games last season and went .920, and this year he’s .930 in 13 appearances. He was supposed to form an effective battery with Brian Elliott, who hasn’t been any good at all (more on him in a minute).

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In fact, Johnson has been so good and Elliott so bad that what was previously a very clear Nos. 1-2 situation has now seen the No. 2 far surpass the No. 1. If Glen Gulutzan is approaching this wisely (big “if”) he runs with Johnson until he collapses again. If he does. Which, who knows?

4. Jonathan Bernier (.933)

The Anaheim Ducks are right in the thick of things in the Pacific Division, which is probably a smidge higher than they deserve given who their coach is and how they’ve played. A big reason for that is Bernier, an expensive backup, is playing well above his head.

He’s only gotten into nine games, but his record is 4-1-1 for a reason. He’s a career .915 goalie otherwise, after a rough couple years in Toronto, and maybe you say that being a backup suits him a little better. But as with Johnson, if he’s playing this much better than your starter (John Gibson has twice as many appearances) maybe you give him a bigger role, right?

3. Cam Ward (.915)

The Hurricanes are getting below-average goaltending overall, but that’s because Eddie Lack (.856) has been so far below replacement-level he dug all the way through the molten core of the earth and ended up in China.

Cam Ward, though, is .915, and buoying any chance the Hurricanes have of staying competitive. Don’t think too many people saw that train coming down the tracks, but here we are. Ward’s last four seasons are — hoo boy — .908, .898, .910, and .909. Awful. Statistically he cost them dozens of goals over that time versus what an average NHLer would have provided.

Is the contract suboptimal? You bet it is, but right now he’s playing the best hockey in recent memory. Long may it continue.

2. Jimmy Howard (.940)

Yeah, remember when everyone got Steve Mason Disease and based their expectations for Petr Mrazek’s future performance on like four good months? Turns out that wasn’t the best idea.

But at the same time, here’s nice Jimmy Howard playing literally the best he has since he left Maine — which was a long time ago now — to bail out an otherwise not-good Detroit Red Wings team while Mrazek shuffles along not-earning his new contract.

Weird fact about Howard: He’s 5-5-0 despite having a .940 save percentage, and only two of his starts weren’t quality (he gave up 5 on 25 and 3 on 26 a few weeks ago). The Wings have wasted performances in which he went 35 of 36, 13 of 14, 26 of 28, and 27 of 28. Which says a hell of a lot more about them than the guy behind them.

1. Devan Dubnyk (.946)

Yeah, sorry I like Dubnyk and everything. I’ve said it a lot before. Apart from that one awful year in Edmonton — which can happen to anyone — he’s regularly in the .916 range or better. He almost won the Vezina two years ago and it wasn’t as much of a fluke as you might think (but it was still kind of a fluke).

But .946? Yeah, this isn’t going to last. To be fair, even if he drops off considerably he might still be in the mid-.920s, which is incredible and Vezina-worthy. But also, the Wild only have one more point than the Ducks despite their starter being .946, so I don’t know what that tells you about how they’ve played. Probably nothing too inspiring at any rate.

Tampa Bay Lightning's Ben Bishop lies on the ice during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Boston Bruins in Boston, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2016. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ben Bishop lies on the ice during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Boston Bruins in Boston, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2016. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

UNDERPERFORMING

5. James Reimer (.896)

Reimer got a big contract this summer and looked like a smart bet to give Roberto Luongo the occasional night off. At this point you might have to just give someone else a shot because he’s doing the absolute polar opposite of “getting the job done.”

He’s a career league-average goalie, which is great for a backup. Sometimes he’s capable of even more than that. Right now he’s playing horribly, and that seems to be in the range of his performance (in 2011-12, he was .900 across 34 appearances).

Gerard Gallant got himself fired, for sure, but Reimer’s play hasn’t helped Florida at all.

4. Brian Elliott (.885)

Speaking of new deals that are garnering plenty of buyer’s remorse, this looked like one of the smartest contracts in the league this summer. Instead Elliott has been absolutely terrible. There’s no way to spin .885, no matter how bad the team in front of him has been, no matter what other mitigating circumstances might exist. No goalie should be this bad or even close to it.

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There’s plenty of reason to think he’s going to rebound, like, say, his entire career body of work before this. But right now? Probably one of the two or three worst goalies in the league.

3. John Gibson (.912)

Gibson was supposed to be The Guy in Anaheim this season. They chose him over Freddie Andersen — for what we thought were obvious reasons. And while Andersen has had issues of his own at times this season, Gibson hasn’t really made Bob Murray look like he made the best call.

Like the guys above, there’s plenty of reason to think he turns it around, but unlike the other two, we really don’t have a lot of data here. Gibson has only faced about 2,100 shots at the NHL level, and while he’s .917 overall in that time — and also very well-regarded as a prospect — there’s got to be some question as to whether a Randy Carlyle-coached team helps get him where he used to be under Bruce Boudreau.

2. Ben Bishop (.902)

Hey bud, don’t you know they’re trying to trade you? And you’re in a contract year?

It’s a good thing Andrei Vasilevskiy has been probably the best goalie in the league (in a somewhat limited 1a role, it should be noted), because otherwise the Bolts would be in a decent amount of trouble.

1. Steve Mason (.898)

Ah jeez, this isn’t going to get it done by any stretch, especially because unlike a few other underpeforming starters, his backup has been a lot, lot, lot, lot worse.

Mason’s only .898, which stinks to high heaven. Michal Neuvirth is .859, which is like an open grave.

The Flyers just do not have an answer in goal this season, and it comes after Mason turned in three-plus great seasons in Philadelphia, including one in 2014-15 that should have gotten him a lot more Vezina consideration. The Flyers really have to hope he hasn’t turned back into Columbus Mason (where he was .903).

Also: Hey bud, don’t you know you’re in a contract year?

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

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