Prospect Heat Check: Why baseball's draft takes so long to produce stars

Never will baseball's amateur draft pack even a fractional amount of the intrigue football's and basketball's do because of the delayed-gratification factor. The luckiest baseball players – not the best, but the most fortunate – bide their time for a year in the minor leagues. And the rest spend years of what amounts to letting their tannins soften.

Maybe – and a big maybe – one or two players drafted this week will arrive in the major leagues this season. And another couple next year. Baseball's development system is a long game, and the finest talents take their sweet time to arrive. Even someone as preternaturally good as Carlos Correa, the Houston Astros' new shortstop, spent nearly three full years in the minor leagues despite going No. 1 overall in 2012. While most of last year was lost to injury, Correa wasn't going to arrive in Houston even if he were healthy.

So the theme of this draft, and every draft, is patience. Stars will emerge over the next half-decade. For now, though, they join thousands of others in the minor leagues, many of whom headline the latest Prospect Heat Check.

1) Byron Buxton, Minnesota, CF, Double-A:

Might as well start with one of those stars-in-the-making. Despite a pair of injury-riddled seasons, Buxton never lost his uber-prospect sheen, and there is a clear spot for him in the near future with the Twins. He's still a tremendous presence in center field, and while his speed is ahead of the rest of his offensive game, the bat and power still profile to be well above average. Buxton's 11 triples and 19 stolen bases show the potency of his wheels, and unless Aaron Hicks locks down the job over the next two months, Twins officials have discussed summoning Buxton in August as Minnesota tries to steal the AL Central.

2) Lucas Giolito, Washington, RHP, High-A: Like Buxton, Giolito was thought to be a candidate for the first overall pick in 2012 who ended up dropping to No. 16. Now he's the best right-handed pitching prospect in the game. Do not let his 4.63 ERA fool you. Balls in play are dropping nearly 43 percent of the time, and the most important numbers – 46 strikeouts, seven walks and zero home runs in 33 1/3 innings – back up scouting reports that say Giolito is every bit as good as advertised and could rocket to Nationals Park by next summer.

3) J.P. Crawford, Philadelphia, SS, Double-A: Should Buxton join Correa, Addison Russell and Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor in losing his eligibility, the battle for No. 1 prospect in baseball going into next year might be between Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager and Crawford, a 20-year-old who went with the 16th pick a year after Giolito. (No, it is not some magical pick. See: Simpson, Hayden.) While Crawford's gap power could grow into 15-homer-a-year pop, his plate discipline gives the Phillies a potential dream left side of the infield to pair with the pop of Maikel Franco. Over two levels, Crawford is hitting .374/.478/.470 with 22 walks and 15 strikeouts.

4) Dansby Swanson, Arizona, SS, unsigned: Since this year was the draft of the shortstop, best to start with the No. 1 overall pick. Swanson is an older player, 22 before next spring training begins, which accelerates his timeline. And considering the Diamondbacks already have shortstop Nick Ahmed, whose glove they adore, the question of when and where Swanson fits in is legitimate. Such is life in a year without a clear-cut No. 1 pick. The Diamondbacks went with the best safe guy, for which it's hard to criticize. It was just a bad year to stink.

5) Brendan Rodgers, Colorado, SS, unsigned: The riskier pick would've been Rodgers, who by almost all accounts was the most talented player of this year's draft. Questions about his makeup percolated throughout the scouting community, and he did have a slight arm issue before his senior high school season, but the bat has a chance to be special, and if he can stick at shortstop, the ceiling is higher than anyone's. It was the right pick for the Rockies, who went with upside and added to a system already stocked with good bats (Raimel Tapia, Ryan McMahon, Forrest Wall, David Dahl, Trevor Story, Tom Murphy and the speedy Wes Rogers).

6) Alex Bregman, Houston, SS, unsigned: On the day the Astros brought up the best shortstop prospect in the game, they added another to the organization who, like Swanson, will be 22 before next season starts. He's even more blocked than Swanson, with Correa at shortstop, Jose Altuve at second and probably not enough bat for third. Of course, having too many good shortstops is like having too much chocolate: It's a non-problem problem.

7) Daz Cameron, Houston, OF, unsigned: Nobody games the draft quite like the Astros, and this year's incarnation was possible thanks to the clown show that was the Brady Aiken negotiations last year. After not signing the No. 1 pick last season, they received the No. 2 pick to go along with their fifth overall selection, giving them a honeypot of money to spend. Bregman and the fifth pick, Kyle Tucker, likely agreed to below-slot bonuses, giving Houston the $4 million-plus it's expected to take to sign Cameron. Scouts are mixed on him, with some worrying the hype exceeds the talent. If Cameron is even a reasonable facsimile of his father Mike, he's worth it.

8) Joe Musgrove, Houston, RHP, High-A: The perfect example of why baseball takes years to judge. Musgrove was a relatively unknown part of the 10-player deal between the Astros and Blue Jays in July 2012. Now he might be Houston's best pitching prospect, with 66 strikeouts and two walks – yes, two – over 55 2/3 innings between Class A and High-A. Another promotion to Double-A could come soon for Musgrove, whose fastball hits around 91-94 mph, tops out at 96 and complements a wipeout slider and average changeup. His command alone screams future big leaguer. With that sort of stuff, he could be far more.

9) A.J. Reed, Houston, 1B, High-A: Last Astros prospect. Promise. It's just difficult to narrow it down considering just how great their system has been. Jon Singleton is crushing home runs at Triple-A, one behind Reed's minor league-leading 15. Another high pick from last year's supposedly wasted draft, Derek Fisher, drove in 12 runs in his first game as Reed's teammate in the Cal League. Outfielder Brett Phillips is doing the same there, as is Domingo Santana in Triple-A. Second baseman Tony Kemp is straight from the Jose Altuve starter kit, between the height (5-foot-6) and slash line (.348/.450/.408). Vince Velasquez is up. Lance McCullers looks like he won't be going back down. Correa is here to stay. The future in Houston isn't just now. Jeff Luhnow is doing in Houston what he did in St. Louis, and that's scary for the AL West.

10) Brady Aiken, Cleveland, LHP, unsigned: Enough questions about Aiken's elbow existed that he dropped below where Tommy John cases Jeff Hoffman and Erick Fedde were taken in last year's draft. Considering how adept Cleveland is at developing pitchers, Aiken provides a tremendous opportunity: get a frontline-type starter for a mid-first-round price.

11) Carson Fulmer, Chicago White Sox, RHP, unsigned: He's short. His delivery won't be taught in baseball lessons anytime soon. He doesn't have exquisite command. What Fulmer does have is stuff in spades and a proven ability to start and go deep into games. He should move quickly, and even if he's not Sonny Gray or Tim Lincecum, he's a big league starter and a good one.

12) Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser, Los Angeles Dodgers, RHPs, unsigned: The best starting pitching in the minor leagues now belongs to the Dodgers, as though it didn't already before. Among Urias, Jose DeLeon, Grant Holmes and three soon-to-be-signed right-handers – Buehler out of Vanderbilt, Funkhouser out of Louisville and Cuban teenager Yadier Alvarez – the Dodgers are building the sort of depth needed to combat the injuries and ineffectiveness sure to hit at least a few of them. Buehler can be a solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation guy, while Funkhouser, if the rediscovery of his fastball holds, may be the steal of the draft.

13) Stephen Gonsalves, Minnesota, LHP, High-A: Between Gonsalves and Jose Berrios, the Twins have among the best pitching-prospect duos in baseball. Gonsalves dropped to the fourth round of the 2013 draft following a seemingly innocent weed incident, and the Twins scooped him up for $700,000. They've now got a 6-foot-5, 200-pound left-hander with four double-digit strikeout games this season and a sub-1.00 ERA since his first start of the season.

14) Steven Matz, New York Mets, LHP, Triple-A: Outside of Urias, Matz might be the best left-handed pitching prospect in the minor leagues. How the Mets slide him into what's already an overcrowded rotation should be fascinating, but he'll be a nice left-handed complement to the right-handed heavy rotation of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler the Mets hope will come together as soon as next season. It's like Generation K, only with five instead of three.

15) Mychal Givens, Baltimore, RHP, Double-A: Pop-up alert. The converted shortstop hits the mid-90s from a sidearm delivery and has racked up 46 strikeouts in 33 2/3 innings. He's not on the Orioles' 40-man roster, and Baltimore's relief corps has been solid this season, so a call-up isn't imminent. At 25 and with three years of pitching under his belt, Givens is almost a finished product.

16) Adam Plutko, Cleveland, RHP, Double-A: All the same caveats apply to Plutko that did last Heat Check. He doesn't throw hard. He doesn't throw hard. And … he doesn't throw hard. Hitters at High-A had trouble picking up his stuff, though, and if he's going to succeed without more velocity, Double-A is his proving ground. So far, so good: 10 innings, 11 strikeouts, zero walks, bringing his season total to 58 strikeouts against five walks.

17) D.J. Peterson, Seattle, 3B, Double-A: On the other hand, Double-A is treating Peterson rather miserably. For a bat-only player to be hitting .202/.287/.288 in the Southern League is a giant red flag, especially after Peterson slashed .261/.335/.473 in about as many plate appearances there last season. Double-A was supposed to be a quick stop-off where Peterson could put up some numbers before his inevitable shift to first for Seattle. Those plans hit the skids. First he needs to figure out where his swing went.

18) Dalton Pompey, Toronto, CF, Double-A: Speaking of complete messes, Pompey is now at Double-A after the Blue Jays demoted him to Triple-A, where he hit .209/.294/.253. It's almost as though the mountain Pompey scaled last year, going from High-A to the major leagues has another side down which he's falling. The good news: Pompey is still just 22 all season. It's been a brutal one, though, especially with the Jays' center field job ripe for the taking still.

19) Yoan Moncada, Boston, 2B, Class A: The Red Sox's $63 million man has started about as well as the major league team's season. He's got eight errors over 11 games in the field, and while his left-handed swing looks solid, one scout said he looked "lost" from the right side. Moncada should hit, and if the concerns in the field precipitate a move to third base, so be it. Moncada just turned 20. The Red Sox have plenty of time, and the last thing they want to do is rush him.

20) Tyler Kolek, Miami, RHP, Class A: Seattle's Alex Jackson is far from the only high pick in the 2014 draft struggling. Kolek, chosen No. 2 and given a $6 million bonus, isn't throwing nearly as hard as his 100-mph-plus outings in high school, isn't striking hitters out at a strong clip and is walking them at far too high a rate. Live arms like Kolek's can take years to pan out, but considering Carlos Rodon already is dealing in the big leagues for the White Sox and cost just $580,000 more, the Kolek pick has a chance of looking even worse.

21) Kyle Zimmer, Kansas City, RHP, Class A: Pitchers, man. Can't live without 'em. Can't trust 'em, either. Zimmer went fifth overall in what could prove a superlative first round – Correa, Buxton, Giolito, Russell, Seager, Berrios, McCullers, Joey Gallo, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, among others – and looked every bit their peer before arm troubles turned him into a perpetual tease. After his latest of three appearances in which he threw 4 2/3 shutout innings, Zimmer was shut down again with shoulder problems. He could be the solution to Kansas City's rotation woes. Instead, he's just another arm acting like so many arms do.

22) Brad Zimmer, Cleveland, OF, High-A: Too good for A-ball at .320/.421/.528 with nine home runs and 23 stolen bases, Zimmer should soon be in Akron and on the cusp of arriving in Cleveland next season. That Kyle's younger brother would make it to the big leagues the fastest is a bit of a surprise, but then so is Brad's performance. He is the classic toolsy college outfielder who blossoms when he gets to pro ball, and he's got All-Star ceiling as a fast, power-hitting outfielder who can acquit himself in center but may be better suited to a corner-outfield spot.

23) Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs, C (?), Double-A: Speaking of ready to move up, Schwarber almost certainly could hold his own in the big leagues now with his bat. A .324/.445/.580 slash line speaks to that, as does the plate discipline. Ultimately where he plays is the question, and for now, the Cubs are sticking with Schwarber at catcher despite doubts about his ability to stick there. The longer Chris Coghlan struggles to get on base 30 percent of the time, the more a temporary move to left for Schwarber makes sense, if only to see whether he can handle it. If so, add him to the brigade of kiddies and help make October a reality.

24) Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays, LHP, Double-A: Snell still hadn't given up a run all year this time last month. His ERA stands at a robust 0.99 now, and a move to Double-A barely slowed him down. He's striking out nearly as many and walking fewer, and Snell is taking the path of another Rays lefty, Matt Moore: take a few years to figure out how to command the ball, strike lots of dudes out and bring it all together as the big leagues beckon. And for the 22-year-old Snell, they're not far.

25) Trea Turner, soon-to-be Washington Nationals, SS, Double-A: It can't feel good for the Padres to have nurtured Turner along all year, seen him hit .322/.389/.478 and know they're going to have to trade him in June, especially with Alexi Amarista and Clint Barmes manning shortstop. Turner is the odds-on favorite to replace Ian Desmond at shortstop should he depart Washington this offseason, and in the coming days, the Nationals finally will get to call him theirs, as the player to be named later in the three-way trade that landed Wil Myers in San Diego and sent Turner and Joe Ross to Washington. Ross alone has made that deal, in which Washington gave up Steven Souza, look good. Turner could make it a blockbuster win for the Nationals.

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