Prospect Heat Check: Astros have a crown jewel

The countdown for Carlos Correa is on, the excitement palpable for the Houston Astros to deploy the game’s best middle infield. That’s not being presumptuous. It’s the truth in 2015, when offense has degraded to the point Zack Cozart has the best OPS among qualified shortstops by nearly 100 points.

Correa is a marvel, an almost-unfair complement to Jose Altuve, two anchors around whom the Astros can continue to build their grand experiment. By this time next month, Correa may not be in the minor leagues anymore, so allow us the opportunity to lead off the season’s first Prospect Heat Check with him. It’s a look around the minor leagues at who’s hot, who’s not and, in Correa’s case, who’s next.

1. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros, Triple-A: The Astros spared the Texas League any further indignity after Correa torched it for a month to the tune of .385/.459/.726 with seven home runs, 32 RBIs and 15 stolen bases in 15 tries. His promotion to Triple-A sets the stage for his arrival at 20 years old, a latter-day Alex Rodriguez as a 6-foot-4 shortstop with a chance to stay there. Once he comes, he’s not going back.

2. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers, Triple-A: Correa hopes his promotion to Triple-A goes better than Seager’s has. He’s hitting .189/.268/.297 in 10 games there after putting up Correa-like numbers at Double-A. The plan hasn’t changed: If Seager isn’t the shortstop for the Dodgers by the end of next April, it will be an upset.

3. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins, Double-A: Absent injuries, Buxton probably would be in the major leagues by now. Instead, he’s toiling two levels down, still hitting for power, still running, still with a great glove, still throwing lasers. The timetable, not the talent, changed. And even if he’s not the flavor of the moment, give it time. He’ll be so again soon enough.

4. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Double-A: It’s Urias’ third year in a full-season league, and he’s still the 10th-youngest player in all of the minors right now. Because of his age and performance, he is the best pitching prospect around, a combination of polish, performance and promise unmatched otherwise. Urias’ numbers are unfair for anyone and unbelievable for an 18-year-old: 2.48 ERA over 32 2/3 innings with 26 baserunners and 39 strikeouts. Urias, Seager and Joc Pederson arriving to the same team within a year or so doesn’t seem fair, and with Yadier Alvarez expected to sign with the Dodgers on July 2 and a monster international class joining him, the rich are only getting richer.

5. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis, High-A: The breakout star of 2015 has 52 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings and, better yet, is controlling his walks, issuing just one each in his last two starts. If Reyes develops even a modicum of control, he’s got No. 1-starter upside, with a fastball that sits in the 100-mph range. One scout has his doubts. “I think he ends up a closer,” he said.

6. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto, High-A: Hoffman still hasn’t thrown a pitch in an official game. He’s set to debut May 20 in his first appearance since Tommy John surgery last year at East Carolina. Still, one scout said, “The buzz is insane.” There are the reports of Hoffman hitting 99 mph in side sessions and this video of his curveball, which was immediately banned in 31 states and Puerto Rico.

7. Blake Snell, LHP, Tampa Bay, Double-A: One of these days, he is going to give up a run, and that will be all well and good. Starting a season with 40 consecutive scoreless innings, as Snell has, gives the ERA a decent-enough cushion. The 22-year-old Snell is perhaps the best hope for one of the Rays’ 10 first-round picks in 2011 to pan out. Tampa Bay almost always takes prospects slowly, especially pitchers, and Snell, in his fifth year of professional baseball, is no exception. He still needs to work on his command, but the stuff will play, especially for a lefty, and with Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb out for an extended period, Snell should get a call sometime next year.

8. Steve Matz, LHP, New York Mets, Triple-A: “I like him better than Syndergaard,” one scout said, comparing Matz to Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ farmhand making his major-league debut Tuesday. Drafted in 2009, Matz didn’t pitch regularly until the 2013 season due to injuries. Now, he gives an already deep Mets starting cache even more firepower. Said another scout: “Matz is a No. 2 for me.”

9. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston, Low-A: One of the nine players younger than Urias, the 18-year-old Devers continues to floor scouts with his pure hitting ability. “Might be the best DR bat since [Robinson] Cano, with similar swing,” one scout said. “If I were to pick a future batting champ from the low minors, it’s him and it’s not close.” Devers may soon have some competition for best teenage hitter on his team. The Red Sox plan on Yoan Moncada playing with Devers in Greenville.

10. Trea Turner, SS, San Diego Padres/Washington Nationals, Double-A: His trade to Washington will be official in mid-June, ending the farce that has kept him with San Diego because players can’t be traded within a year of a team drafting them. Turner has been a pro, hitting .321/.398/.491 and playing passable-enough defense at shortstop that when Ian Desmond leaves this offseason, the Nationals will have a ready-made replacement.

11. Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Chicago Cubs, Double-A: Catcher or outfielder? Catcher or outfielder? The answer, quite simply, is hitter. Schwarber is slashing through the minor leagues like he did last year, and the Cubs will keep riding his 1.000-plus OPS behind the plate even if the industry sees him roaming the outfield grass eventually. “If he’s a catcher three years into his career,” one scout said, “I’ll eat this phone I’m talking into.”

12. Billy McKinney, OF, Chicago Cubs, High-A: Hell of a throw-in. The second piece along with Addison Russell in last summer’s Jeff Samardzija/Jason Hammel trade gives the Cubs another outfield option – or some elite trade bait. McKinney’s .340/.432/.544 is pretty. The best part: In a whiff-happy era, he actually has walked (17) more times than he has struck out (13) at High-A. Worth mentioning that Dan Vogelbach, the professional DH for a team that doesn’t need one, has put up almost identical numbers to McKinney’s: .333/.432/.552 at AA.

13. Daniel Mengden, RHP, Houston, Low-A: Sleeper alert. While Mengden is old for the Midwest League at 22, one scout said the stuff is legit: fastball topping out at 94 with a plus changeup for the Quad Cities River Bandits, who have won 12 in a row. Mengden is part of the Astros’ maligned 2014 draft, and even though the Brady Aiken debacle unfolded, they could easily salvage it with him, outfielder Derek Fisher (.337/.422/.607 at Low-A) and A.J. Reed (.266/.388/.578) and J.D. Davis (.339/.390/.569) at High-A Lancaster.

14. Lance McCullers, RHP, Houston, Double-A: Another gem in the Astros’ organization. Big, strong, throws hard, strikes guys out (37 in 25 innings) and keeps getting better. The only question is starter or reliever and, like Schwarber, the Astros are going to keep him at the more valuable position until his performance forces otherwise.

15. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado, Triple-A: Onto the ugly portion of the proceedings. “I’m not panicking,” Gray told the Denver Post, even though the No. 3 overall pick in 2013 – one slot behind Kris Bryant – sports an 8.16 ERA and is allowing nearly two baserunners an inning. His last two starts have been promising, if not dominant, and scouts are waiting to see the triple-digit fire that made him such a valuable commodity out of Oklahoma.

16. Alex Jackson, OF, Seattle, Low-A: Contact issues are haunting the No. 6 pick in last year’s draft, with 34 strikeouts in 104 at-bats. The good news: He’s 19 and has plenty of time to figure things out.

17. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado, Double-A: Should Troy Tulowitzki go anywhere in a deal, his replacement is biding his time in the Eastern League, dropping a .361/.466/.639 line. The power is there – Story hit 18 home runs during his first full season in the South Atlantic League – and he has cut down on the strikeouts, though whiffing in 30 percent of his at-bats remains a monstrous red flag.

18. Peter O’Brien, OF/1B, Arizona, Triple-A: Evan Gattis 2.0. Older than preferred (O’Brien turns 25 in July). Stupid power (eight home runs and a .644 slugging percentage). Awful plate discipline (four walks against 25 strikeouts in 118 AB). Definitely not a catcher (the left- and right-field experiments aren’t going particularly well, either). The power will get him to the big leagues. The other stuff will help him stay.

19. Michael Conforto, LF, New York Mets, High-A: The Mets are taking their sweet time with last season’s first-round pick, and one scout wonders why. Conforto “could come quick,” he said, because the Florida State League is a “very tough place to put up numbers,” and that’s just what Conforto is doing: .281/.343/.461 with six home runs. How deep does the respect run for the 22-year-old? He’s already been intentionally walked a minor-league-leading five times.

20. Luis Ortiz and Ariel Jurado, RHP, Texas, Low-A: The Rangers are babying Ortiz, their first-round pick last year, while stretching out Jurado, who’s actually younger but in his third pro season. They’re different pitchers – Ortiz a power guy and Jurado more polish than stuff – but have combined for a pretty strikeout-to-walk differential: 48-to-7. As the Rangers know from the last two seasons, there’s never such a thing as too much pitching, even if it’s a long way from the major leagues.

21. Adam Plutko, Cleveland, RHP, Double-A: During the spring, one pitching evaluator said to keep an eye on Plutko, a 23-year-old taken in the 11th round out of UCLA in 2013. “Guys swing at his 88 like it’s 97,” he said. The lesson: Listen to people who know pitching. Because even though Plutko’s profile sounds ugly – right-hander who struggles to crack 90 – the stuff does play. His 31-to-3 strikeout-to-walk differential is among the best in the minors, and his 1.23 ERA ranks in the top 10. Another Indians starter to watch: right-hander Cody Anderson. “Might be the biggest surprise of the year,” one scout said of the 14th-round pick from 2011 in his second go-around at Double-A.

22. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels, Low-A: Time for the 15th overall pick in last year’s draft to move up a level. He leads the minor leagues in strikeouts per nine at 11.8 because he’s far too good for the Midwest League.

23. Oliver Drake, RHP, Baltimore, Triple-A: Mitch Harris is in the big leagues already. How about another midshipman? Drake is in his eighth season with the Orioles’ organization and off to his best start, with 24 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings. He broke out after a move to the bullpen in 2013 and could break with Baltimore in case of bullpen emergency.

24. Josh Ravin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Triple-A: As if the Dodgers need another power arm out of the bullpen. In his 10th minor league season, Ravin is almost sure to get a call to the major leagues at some point, with his high-90s fastball leading to 19 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings.

25. Pedro Severino, C, Washington, Double-A: Sleeper alert. The bat is starting to play a little (.291/.333/.405) and the arm is deadly, with a 60 percent caught-stealing rate. Severino looks the part at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds. “The defense is near-elite and the body is athletic,” one scout said. “If he can keep making progress with the bat, he could be ... legit.”

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