Fantasy baseball price check on NL players: Buying Bryce Harper

Let’s continue our tour around baseball with the player on each team who intrigues me the most — good or bad. This week, we focus on price checks in the NL. Here are the AL players we addressed previously. Recommendations in this story are relative to ADP in Yahoo drafts at press time.

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Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (ADP: 172): Hit way better in the majors (.803 on-base plus slugging percentage) than in AA prior to his call-up (.744 OPS). It’s optimistic to bet that the lower number will translate to the majors this year. Prospect expert Joe Werner (2017 Prospect Digest Handbook) pegs Swanson as a .800 OPS hitter at his peak, which isn’t going to be 2017. I’d rather have cheaper Eduardo Nunez (see below).

Jonathan Villar, SS/2B/3B, Brewers (ADP: 45): The power was shockingly good last year (.172 isolated slugging) but expect regression to his career ISO of about .140. He’s 6-foot-1, 215 pounds so this could be real. And, yes, his big benefit is steals. He’s not adding much real-life value in getting caught 22.5 percent of the time. But manager Craig Counsell doesn’t seem to care. So 2016 seems like a career year all-around for Villar, who could again threaten 200 Ks.

Stephen Piscotty, OF, Cardinals (ADP: 126): Has just average power and at age 26 this year not much room to grow. He also won’t run. His homer range is 15-25. Take Kendrys Morales (ADP: 138) instead.

Addison Russell, SS, Cubs (ADP: 136): Pop-ups (17 percent vs. MLB average of 13 percent) and Ks (22.6 percent) make him pretty much hopeless in batting average. He’s also mildly fly-ball prone. Russell should again struggle to hit even .250.

[Price check on American League players in early drafts]

Yasmany Tomas, OF, Diamondbacks (ADP: 175): Crushes lefties but I can’t explain his superior performance on the road (.857 OPS vs. .785 at home). He always had power and it finally translated but he’s otherwise not a better hitter given his Ks and BBs showed so little progress. Bottom line: he’s a second-division player in reality but “cheap power” in fantasy. Buy.

Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers (ADP: 223): The price is so low now for one of our game’s most intriguing talents. But Puig seems too big for baseball and with a muscle-bound body type that historically has not been conducive to hitting baseballs. Plus the Dodgers have seemed to turn the page, reportedly considering him as a possible short-side platoon OF. Curtis Granderson (ADP: 229) is an unsexy but better pick.

Eduardo Nunez, SS/3B, Giants (ADP: 191): Nunez makes way better contact than Villar and thus has a higher batting average floor. His power is at least as projectable. Nunez hit in 2015, too, and never was given playing time prior to 2016. I’m fairly confident he can repeat 2016 (56 homers plus steals) and no one is making me risk much to find out.

Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins (ADP: 53): Fantasy baseball really wants Yelich to be great and that’s reflected in a lot of his projections. He’s never going to hit many homers due to his extreme ground ball ways (nearly twice the MLB average). And he’s not a base stealer. Jackie Bradley Jr. is likely to have equal fantasy value and goes 50 picks later.

Michael Conforto, OF, Mets (ADP: 219): For @wsjsports, I talked to Mets announcer Keith Hernandez about Conforto at length last September. Hernandez said he thinks Conforto still is one of the few guys who is a true No. 3 hitter, hitting over .300 with an effortless 25 homers with just some simple adjustments common for young hitters. If he’s right, Jay Bruce isn’t going to keep him out of the lineup. Conforto is likely an in-season pickup though given his remote chance to break camp with a starting job and likelihood he’ll end up in AAA.

Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (ADP: 11): You can’t draft Harper too high. A likely future Hall of Famer given only 13 had more offensive WAR than Harper through their age 23 season. And now you get him at age 24 when so many Hall of Famers had breakout seasons. Of course, Harper has already broken out and could win the Triple Crown while also stealing 20 bases.

Ryan Schimpf, 2B/3B, Padres (ADP: 262): He had a .316 ISO, which is insane. For context note that Babe Ruth’s career ISO was .342. Schimpf’s K percentage is also nuts at 31.8 percent. But he walks (12.7 percent). Add a flyball rate about three times the league average and you have to write off batting average without a doubt. But a possible 40 homers at 2B is definitely a path to winning a league. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t break camp in the everyday lineup and if I’m wrong, who cares since this price is free.

Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies (ADP: 143): Love the Ks and BBs. He says he’s healthy. Innings will be an issue but we’ll worry about that in August. Homers weren’t even a problem last year. His ERA in 2016 thus makes zero sense. Bet on positive regression.

Ivan Nova, SP, Pirates (ADP: 233): Looked like a fantasy ace last year in Pittsburgh, which has been a haven for pitchers. I can’t ignore 52 Ks and 3 BBs because the weight of that small sample is so great. Note the K rate is not going to help you but he has such a sweet WHIP floor given those walks.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds (ADP: 254): More cheap power. I’ll be surprised if homers don’t significantly regress this year, league wide. But 25 homers are a reasonable projection for Suarez in his age 25 season, too. His K/BB profile suggests a .260 average is well within reach.

Tom Murphy, C, Rockies (ADP: 242): Could be the Trevor Story of catchers this season in Colorado. Hit 24 homers in 347 at bats last year in AA and MLB combined. Also added 28 doubles and seven triples. Yes, he’s a gamble in that he may not have a job. But you’re being paid to gamble given this ADP.