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Pressing fantasy questions: 2017 New York Mets

The Mets’ enviable, yet oft-injured, starting rotation. (Getty)
The Mets’ enviable, yet oft-injured, starting rotation. (Getty)

The Mets allowed an average of 3.81 runs per game in ’16, a mark that was bettered by just two clubs (Cubs and Nationals). Unfortunately, the Mets were also adept at limiting their own runs scored, finishing with the fifth-fewest runs in the league. The result was an 87-75 record that was good enough for a Wild Card berth, but a loss to the Giants in the one-game WC playoff quickly dashed the team’s postseason aspirations.

Of course, the ’16 season might have lasted a while longer if not for the failing health of the team’s vaunted pitching staff down the stretch – Jacob deGrom (elbow) and Steven Matz (shoulder/elbow), who combined for a 3.21 ERA, spent much of the second half of the season on the disabled list, with neither healthy enough to pitch the final month of the season. Both deGrom and Matz are expected to be full-go for training camp, as is another vaunted member of the rotation, Matt Harvey, who is coming back from mid-season surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which begs the first pressing question …

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Q: What is Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, and what does it mean for Matt Harvey?

Simply put, Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS) is the compression of blood vessels between the collarbone and rib cage. Repetitive stress in that area is known to be among the potential causes of TOS, which is why pitchers can be at higher risk than others – in recent years, notable pitchers that have dealt with TOS include Phil Hughes, Tyson Ross, Jaime Garcia, Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, and Chris Young. TOS surgery involves removing the player’s top rib to relieve pressure (which apparently sounds worse than it really is). The difference between Harvey and the others listed here (and many of those not listed here that have also dealt with TOS) is that Harvey is dealing with recovery from TOS surgery at a younger age (27).

One pitcher who went through this process at a younger age than Harvey is Tampa Bay’s Alex Cobb, who had TOS surgery in November of ’11 at age 24. Said Cobb about how he felt coming off surgery:

“When I woke up from that surgery, I felt like a shotgun went off in my shoulder. It felt fine once I started pitching again, but I just didn’t regain my velocity right away until later in the 2012 season … I had the best season of my career in 2013. Every once in a while now, I just have a little tightness in my neck.’’

A perusal of Cobb’s PitchF/X data on Fangraphs shows that his average fastball velocity in that ’12 season was 90.0 mph (he posted a 4.03 ERA and a 7.0 K/9), while his velocity in ’13 averaged 90.7 mph (he posted a 2.76 ERA and a 8.41 K/9).

Harvey, who sat out the ’14 season after Tommy John surgery, was averaging nearly 96 mph on his fastball in 2013 and 2015, but dipped to 94.5 mph last season before being shut down. It seems reasonable to expect Harvey to be able to rebound from TOS and boost his fastball back over 95 mph, especially given his relative youth and bulldog demeanor. But it might be wise to use Cobb as a reference for expectations as to Harvey’s timetable for getting back to top form. There’s a reasonable chance that we won’t see the best of what we’ll get from Harvey in ’17 until sometime in the second half. As the No. 31 starting pitcher being taken on average in Yahoo drafts, I won’t be an active Harvey buyer on draft day, but I’d certainly be interested if he fell into the mid-to-late 30s.

Q: What’s the story down on the hot corner?

Jose Reyes played pretty well after joining the Mets in early July, finishing the final three months of the ’16 campaign as a borderline top 70 offensive player in roto leagues. His 162-game pace was for 21.6 home runs, 24.3 steals and 121.5 runs. So it’s clear that the 33-year-old still offers intrigue if he can find his way into more regular playing time, something that could very well happen at third base, where David Wright is trying to stave off back issues and hold things down in ’17, something he hasn’t managed to do since ’14 – he’s played less than 40 games each of the past two seasons. Coming off of neck surgery, Wright is just starting to partake in the simplest of baseball activities (playing catch), which is to say he remains a major question mark heading into the spring.

The Mets also have a considerable question mark at first base in Lucas Duda, who has been fighting back issues for the past couple seasons and was limited to just 47 games last season. With that in mind, in addition to Wright’s health, there has been some thought to giving Wright some time at first base in ’17. All of this is to say that there’s a very good chance Reyes, who can also fill-in at shortstop and even second base (in a pinch), ends up with something close to 500 at bats, especially if he proves to be able to keep up his run-scoring pace from last year (again, the Mets scored the fifth-fewest runs in the league in ’16). As a 3B/SS-eligible player being drafted in just 42 percent of Yahoo leagues, and going well outside the top 200 on average, Reyes could end up being one of the better deep sleepers in ’17 drafts.

Q: How is Michael Conforto going to find meaningful playing time?

The quick answer is that he’s probably not. The former Oregon State standout and ’14 top 10 overall draft pick quickly ascended to New York, making a splash in his 56-game Mets debut in ’15, hitting 9 home runs and posting an .841 OPS. Unfortunately, his ’16 campaign saw his OPS dip to .725 and his K% jump to 25.6. His power numbers leveled off (12 HRs in 109 games) and his issues with left-handed pitching became more glaring (.336 OPS vs LHP in 62 career ABs).

Mets right fielder Jay Bruce was thought to be an obvious candidate to be traded this past offseason, which would have opened up a starting spot for Conforto. But with the team deciding to hang on to Bruce (at least for the time being), Conforto looks like a candidate to open the season with Triple-A Las Vegas. He’s had no problems crushing minor league pitching up to this point, but he can go there with a clear directive to work on a plan against southpaw pitching while also cutting down on strikeouts in general.

Given the current shaky nature of Conforto’s fantasy prospects, it’s curious to note that he’s still being selected just a handful of outfielders behind Bruce, and ahead of centerfield teammate Curtis Granderson, both players that have guaranteed playing time and a much more bankable track record of fantasy success than Conforto. Bruce and Granderson certainly deserve to have their names called on draft day, but Conforto is probably better suited for your Watch List, an interesting talent that you want to be prepared to add if/when things trend back in the right direction.

Mets Projected Lineup

Curtis Granderson, OF

David Wright, 3B

Yoenis Cespedes, OF

Jay Bruce, OF

Neil Walker, 2B

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS

Lucas Duda, 1B

Travis d’Arnaud, C

Mets Projected Rotation

SP Noah Syndergaard

SP Jacob deGrom

SP Steven Matz

SP Matt Harvey

SP Zack Wheeler

CL Jeurys Familia

MR1 – Addison Reed