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Power Rankings: Should Carl Edwards be No. 1?

Nick Bromberg
·College football and motorsports writer
These two drivers are at the top of our Power Rankings. But in what order? (Getty)
These two drivers are at the top of our Power Rankings. But in what order? (Getty)

Welcome to Power Rankings. As always, Power Rankings are far from a scientific formula. In fact, it’s the perfect blend of analytics and bias against your favorite driver. Direct all your complaints to us at happyhourmailbag@yahoo.com and we’ll try to have some fun.

1. Jimmie Johnson (LW: 1): Let’s put Johnson’s Texas dominance into perspective. His 11th-place finish (after pitting on the final caution in a no-lose strategy in case the race went back green) was his worst finish at the track since the spring race in 2014.

And if you want to go back in Johnson’s career at Texas, it’s a really bad finish too. His average finish in 27 starts at the track is 8.4. Sunday night’s finish ties for his sixth-worst among those 27 starts. Absolutely crazy.

2. Carl Edwards (LW: 8): Edwards’ Martinsville finish is why we can’t vault him up to No. 1 this week. But it’s still good enough for a six-spot jump and a deserved second in the standings.

Edwards needed to reverse his summer and fall performance to have a shot for the championship. And he’s done that. Sunday’s win was his first since Richmond in April and his second top-five of the Chase. From Richmond to the Chase — a span of 17 races, Edwards had finished in the top five just twice.

He hasn’t been exceptionally excellent in the Chase with just three top-10 finishes in the eight races so far. But he’s won at the right time. And that’s more important than sustained performance in this Chase format.

3. Joey Logano (LW: 2): Will Logano rue Texas as the one that got away? It’ll be impossible not to if he misses out on making it to Homestead by a point or two. It’s a four-way battle for the final spots in the Chase at the moment, and it could just be for one spot if Kevin Harvick wins at Phoenix.

Logano led 178 laps Sunday night and ended up finishing second after he lost the lead on a green-flag pit stop cycle.

4. Kyle Busch (LW: 6): Here’s the man tied with Logano in the points standings. Technically, they’re also tied with Jimmie Johnson at 4,074 points, but since Johnson has the Martinsville win he’s irrelevant to the discussion. They’re just one point ahead of Matt Kenseth and two points ahead of Denny Hamlin.

If it matters — and it could if Busch finishes a spot ahead of Logano but Logano leads a lap at Phoenix — Logano has the tiebreaker over Busch currently with that second-place finish at Texas.

5. Matt Kenseth (LW: 4): Kenseth gets the No. 5 spot in Power Rankings because he finished seventh at Texas and is between Busch and Hamlin in the points standings. We’re all about order here.

The race among Logano, Busch, Kenseth and Hamlin entering the final race of the third round is the closest it’s been since the elimination Chase was implemented in 2014. Last season, the final three spots in the Chase were separated by 13 points and Nos. 2-4 entering Phoenix.

It was a little closer in 2014. Jeff Gordon occupied the fourth spot heading into Phoenix and Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth were a point behind while Brad Keselowski was four back.

6. Denny Hamlin (LW: 3): As the closeness of the points standings gets trumpeted throughout the weekend at Phoenix, it’s important to remember that NASCAR’s points system artificially creates the closeness. There’s been absolute craziness if the race among the top eight is not close heading into the final round.

This close race is a bit different, however, because three of the four drivers are teammates. It’s going to be fun if these Joe Gibbs Racing cars are all near each other on the track late in the race. How do you race a teammate for the shot at a title?

Can Kevin Harvick join Carl Edwards in the final round of the Chase? (Getty)
Can Kevin Harvick join Carl Edwards in the final round of the Chase? (Getty)

7. Kevin Harvick (LW: 6): Maybe we need to have Harvick higher in the standings because Phoenix is coming up? As we said Monday, Harvick winning at Phoenix is no sure thing, but it’s about the closest you can get to a sure thing in the Cup Series these days.

And given Harvick’s position in the standings, he’s going to need to win to advance. He’s 18 points back from the top four. That’s not insurmountable. But it seems quite unrealistic for Harvick to jump over two of the four drivers ahead of him.

8. Kurt Busch (LW: 7): Busch is in a much more tenuous spot than Harvick. He’s 34 points back. And he has to beat Harvick as well. Yeah, it’s not good.

Busch hasn’t led any laps at Phoenix since he led two while driving for James Finch in the 2012 spring race. He’s finished in the top 10 in each of the last four races, but a top 10 isn’t going to be good enough unless all the cars ahead of him in the standings wreck each other on lap five.

9. Martin Truex Jr. (LW: 10): Truex would be in a pretty good position in the standings if he advanced out of the second round. Finishes of seventh and third would have Truex tied for the points lead with Johnson, Busch and Logano.

Alas, there’s that Talladega blown engine to ruin things. At least Truex has a good shot to finish fifth in the standings. We’re trying to look on the bright side here.

10. Brad Keselowski (LW: 9): Keselowski finished 14th on Sunday night, 10 spots lower than where he qualified in fourth. Keselowski struggled with the handling of his car all day and couldn’t keep up with teammate Logano who was the class of the field for most of the race.

11. Chase Elliott (LW: NR): Elliott has continued to show similar speed to teammate Johnson during the Chase. But as Johnson won at Charlotte in the second round, Elliott was saddled with the restart crash that screwed everything up. He finished fourth at Texas on Sunday night and will likely be a contender at Homestead in two weeks.

How crazy would it be if Chase won at Homestead to prevent the winner of the Chase from winning the Chase’s final race?

12. Kasey Kahne (LW: NR): Kahne has picked up his pace in the Chase. Alas, he’s not a member of it. He finished eighth at Texas on Sunday, his fifth top-10 finish in the Chase. And two of those finishes outside the top 10 are an 11th at Martinsville and a 12th at Dover.

Kahne now has 13 top-10 finishes in 2016 and continues his grip on the top spot among all non-Chase drivers.

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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!