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Giants at Packers: Can New York's D slow down Aaron Rodgers?
New York Giants (11-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET on Fox
GIANTS AT A GLANCE
Key player: All due respect to Big Game Eli Manning, but the Giants will live and die based on the performance of their elite-and-he’ll-make-sure-you-know-it receiver Odell Beckham Jr. No player on the Giants, and few players in sports as a whole, has the ability to turn an entire game on its head the way Beckham does. If Beckham busts out one of his sixty-plus-yard touchdown runs, he’ll energize his team in a way a methodical dink-and-dunk drive simply can’t do.
Why they’ll win: Manning. Sure, go ahead and clown Eli for looking more lost than a dog watching C-SPAN. He’ll just throw another TD right over your head. Manning had another strong season, throwing for 4,027 yards, and he now ranks seventh all-time with 320 career touchdown passes. In his past four playoff games, he’s averaged 305 yards, with nine touchdowns and one interception. Oh, and he’s 2-0 versus the Packers in the postseason. Combine Manning with the rejuvenated Giants defense, which is one of the few units that won’t be cowed by Aaron Rodgers. Olivier Vernon fit in well with the Giants right off the bat, notching 8.5 sacks, while Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie snared six interceptions. The Giants defense ranked second in scoring, allowing only 17.8 points per game.
Why they’ll lose: The defense is the key here. If the Giants D can keep the Packers under three touchdowns – good luck with that, by the way – the offense can scramble its way to a victory. The defense allowed at least 23 points in every loss, including a 23-16 defeat at the hands of Green Bay earlier this season. Part of the problem with relying on a receiver as mercurial as Beckham is that when the mercury’s running in the wrong direction, it’s tough to reroute. Beckham caught his first touchdown of the season against Green Bay … a game that took place in Week 5.
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Keep in mind: Put aside all the nonsense about the Giants emerging to win Super Bowls every few years, like they were football cicadas or something. If they were going to do an every-four-years run to wallop the Patriots like they did in the 2007 and 2011 seasons, they would’ve done it last year. No, the big issue for the Giants will be whether partying with Justin Bieber in South Beach the week of a playoff game will affect their performance. (Short version: if the Giants win, no; if the Giants lose, IT’S ALL THE BIEBS’ FAULT.)
PACKERS AT A GLANCE
Key player: Aaron Rodgers, forever and ever, amen. Rodgers is not just the heart and soul of the Packers, he’s the bone, the marrow, the connective tissue, and whatever weird gut organ that is that scientists just discovered. Rodgers is one of the finest quarterbacks of his generation, which, by association in these QB-rich times, means he’s one of the finest quarterbacks in NFL history. He made the proclamation back when the Packers were 4-6 that they’d run the table, and lo and behold, they’ve done just that, winning the NFC North with a decisive stomp on the Lions to close out the regular season. During that six-game stretch, Rodgers has thrown 15 pass touchdowns and zero interceptions, posting a 121.0 QB rating.
Why they’ll win: Because Aaron Rodgers could grab you and three of your pals and turn you into a receiving corps capable of competing in the NFC North. And he’s got even better than that in Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. Combine that with the where’d-he-come-from running game of converted WR Ty Montgomery, the big-game experience of the Packers, and the wintry hell of Lambeau Field in January, and everything sets up nicely for Green Bay.
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Why they’ll lose: Even with Montgomery, the Packers’ running game remains suspect. So Rodgers needs his receivers to catch the damn ball, and despite Nelson’s resurgence, all too often the Packer receiving corps flinches like the ball’s on fire. Rodgers generally isn’t the problem, but if his receivers start coughing up passes, particularly red zone ones, that’ll give the Giants secondary even more confidence than it already has. That, in truth, is the only hope that the Giants have: that the Packers will do something to beat themselves, be it turnovers, drops, or poor clock management … all of which, we must note, are on the table.
Keep in mind: The temperature at kickoff is projected to be a balmy 11 degrees – just a wee bit cooler than Beckham et. al. enjoyed in Miami – and the temperature will drop even faster than the sun as the game wears on. The teams played in the infamous “Ice Bowl II” game on Jan. 20, 2008, which had a minus-1 temperature with minus-23 (!!!) wind-chill – though it’s worth remembering the Giants won that one, 23-20, on a field goal in overtime. That game also marked the final outing of one Brett Favre in a Packer uniform; it was Favre’s interception, his final pass as a Packer, that set up the game-winning field goal. Don’t expect Rodgers to make that kind of mistake, but don’t be surprised at a low-scoring affair, either.
[Related: Frigid weather could affect multiple NFL playoff games this weekend]
OUTLOOK
This matchup gets the marquee treatment for the first week of the playoffs, and deservedly so: big market vs. big star, recent champion vs. recent champion, legendary franchise vs. legendary franchise. (This is the 32nd playoff appearance for both franchises, tied for most in NFL history.) The weather tilts the matchup a bit more in the Giants’ direction simply by flattening the Packers’ big-play advantages a bit, but Aaron Rodgers is a locomotive rolling downhill. He may not make it to Houston, but it’ll take a bigger obstacle than the New York Giants to stop him.
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Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports and the author of EARNHARDT NATION, on sale now at Amazon or wherever books are sold. Contact him at jay.busbee@yahoo.com or find him on Twitter or on Facebook.
