Pitching by the Numbers: Believe in Rays' Archer

This is the worst time of the year for a guy like me because we don’t have enough numbers. But that doesn’t mean we just shut our eyes.

Two stats that I pay particular attention to always are ground-ball percentage and strikeout rate. Strikeouts don’t risk bad breaks on balls in play and grounders, even if they sneak through, are almost always singles. Trying to string together three baserunners is tough and even then it’s one run. So pitchers who combine these skills are good bets to avoid bad innings and, especially, bad starts.

And it’s a rare combination as most ground-ball pitchers tend to pitch to contact. The ground-ball specialist who can also ring up Ks is fantasy gold.

So let’s at least see who these guys are so we know who to target in early season bidding and who to watch to see if these trends continue. Here are the top 20 pitchers in combined ground-ball rate and strikeout rate. But this doesn’t mean that a corresponding percentage of batters either walk or hit a ground ball. The K% is the percentage of all batters faced who strike out and the GB% is the percentage of the REMAINING batters who hit the ball on the ground. Combining them shows who is strongest in both categories but don’t use that number by itself. If you can think of a more elegant yet simple way to convey the strength in both statistics, I’m all ears — let me know in the comments and on Twitter @michaelsalfino.

I’ve said that Cole can win the Cy Young Award this year, he’s that talented. The Ks were always coming because the stuff is just too good.

Archer is the real deal. My stats didn’t like him that much in March but if you own him, do not sell. That’s an order. He also has elite velocity, of course.

Nelson is the real deal and should be rostered and active everywhere. I caution you that Bradley’s Ks are not really playable at the moment. But he’s the poor man’s Keuchel. Or is Keuchel the poor man’s Bradley? Keuchel has about as high a floor as any non-obvious fantasy ace. Pineda keeps getting results despite the velocity woes. I wrote about this recently in the Wall Street Journal. If you believe in velocity outliers, Pineda is your man. It’s hard to trust either of those guys though given this. Heston is mixed-league worthy. I’m not falling for Lincecum. McCarthy actually has the highest K percentage in the league.

Clay Buchholz deserves special mention. That GB rate alone deserves consideration but the K-rate is far, far above average at 28.7%. Buchholz is maddeningly inconsistent and unreliable but he is now also free. He was also once viewed by many as a generational pitching prospect so the talent is there. The trick with these up-and-down guys is to not punish them for the occasional bad start that almost every hurler has at some point.

Now let’s look at the GB% + K% trailers.

The way this chart is designed, you end up penalizing the pitchers with extreme fly-ball rates who actually have good K rates. But that would only be Travis Wood on the bottom here and maybe Santiago, too. I’m not that concerned about Hughes given he’s dealt with fingernail issues and has not been able to throw his spike curve, a big K pitch. This is hurting his overall pitching, too, of course. Hughes looked to be in 2014 form on Friday in Seattle and is now at 22 Ks and 2 BBs this year in 26.2 innings. Even with a league-leading 30 hits allowed, his ratio is still 1.20.

Don’t worry about Price. His terrible outing in the brutal cold and wind this week has distorted his numbers. Another Tiger hurler deserving concern but only viewable via the entire chartis Shane Greene. I’m getting tired of making excuses for his poor strikeouts. This must change. It was actually a strength in his limited starts last year.

Zimmermann is a sell. He’s always a sell for me. He’s fringy in mixed leagues because you can never trust his K rate. I guess Teheran is the biggest name of the remaining pitchers in the bottom 20% of this stat. I’ve never been a fan, as long-time readers have known. I’d sell him, too, if you can get ace-level return. I think that’s a winning move because people treat Teheran like he’s mixed-league money and I don’t think that’s quite true.