Pitching by the Numbers: Well hits and misses

Let’s look at well-hit data via the cross-checking of multiple video scouts of MLB stat provider, Inside-Edge, who actually watch every at bat. We’re focusing on pitchers’ rates of well-hit average allowed.

These rates are as a percentage of at-bats. So they include strikeouts and homers. This makes the well-hit stat far better than line-drive percentage, which is only calculated based on balls in play. So if you strike out 10 guys, those count. With LD%, they don’t. So being absurd for the purposes of illustration, if you strike out 98 of 100 hitters but one hits a line drive, your LD% is 50%.This way, your well-hit average is .001, as it should be.

Let’s set the averages. MLB pitchers allow well-hit balls on 15.4% of at bats. I’ve also included Inside-Edge’s swing and miss rates as a percentage of strikes. All the sites seem to do variations of this. This DOES NOT count a first-strike foul ball though. You have to miss the pitch. And its not a percentage of pitches, either, it’s a percentage of strikes. So know the league average — 16% — and work from there.

Obviously we’re looking for guys with low well-hit and high swing-and-miss strikes, relative to the average rates of .154 (we want lower) and 16% (we want higher), respectively.

Now here is where things get tricky and my debates usually start with buddy Scott Pianowski. How much should you ding a guy with a high well-hit rate? Is it all his fault? Or, as xFIP foolishly stipulates, is it all bad luck? I’m going to split the difference, recognizing that batters typically control about 60% of the batter-vs.-pitcher outcome. I’m being more conservative (harder on the pitcher) and saying that these numbers are 50% skill and 50% luck to the degree they vary from league average. So while the current number describes how well the guy has fared in contact, the “predicted” column assumes the current rate is half luck/batter-based and half skill/pitcher based. Of course, this dings the positive outliers, too, assuming that a good chunk of their success is just running into more of their bad share of bad hitting.

Gray has been insanely good in generating weak contact. And we’re giving him half credit for that. So we’re predicting that he will still be good in generating weak contact but that his rate will regress to .111 (again league average is .154). This is conservative. Maybe Gray has some special magic to his pitches this year that will allow him to continue to force hitters to hit powder puffs. But we’re not going to EXPECT this (or pay for it).

With strikeouts being factored into these numbers, it’s not surprising that the top of the list includes many top names. But let’s focus on the few that seem out of place given their fantasy performance, while also being better than average at missing bats.

Here’s a pretty convincing case to pick up Clay Buchholz and Jimmy Nelson. They seem to have been unlucky in really paying for the well-hit balls. The first concern is that maybe they are fly-ball pitchers and thus their well-hits allowed are more damaging. But neither is. They’ve popped up on enough lists where I’m going to just straight up say to buy both. I know Buchholz is in the bad league and division. But he’s possibly free in mixers. He’s certainly cheap.

This model also really likes Tyson Ross. I hate Ross’s slider percentage and his reliance on it really boosts his swing-and-miss stats. But it’s probably not going to cost you much to speculate on Ross. Remember, none of these guys are going to make you want to race in and jump into the water. It’s going to be a little scary.

Conversely, we don’t want guys who aren’t good at missing bats and who are getting well hit at an average rate or worse.

To be clear, I’m not saying to cut the ones with the higher perceived value or saying to trade them for the cheapies I advocate getting above. Don't accuse me of recommending trading Zack Greinke for Buchholz. This is NOT what this is about. Greinke is .157 now, but you can view the full list here, starting at the bottom.

Greinke is being hit pretty hard for a guy who is viewed as a fantasy ace. This suggests his ERA is likely to be significantly worse going forward, though still better than league average. Let’s call it 3.25 ERA prospectively. Do you want to hold that or sell the 1.95 if someone is buying it? The well-hit model says you should lock in those profits and sell high.

Remember, these well-hit averages include strikeouts. So a guy like Danny Salazar (.164 well-hit) is really getting pounded when hitters make contact. Again, you can’t dump Salazar but don’t expect him to be a true ace, either. Maybe there is someone in your league who does expect that. If so, make a deal.

John Lackey is the other quasi-big name that people are very happy with thus far in mixers. But I’d just flat out dump him before the correction happens given his poor well-hit rate of .168. I’d take various prospects who are emerging. Maybe you can drop Lackey for Lance McCullers (.133 well-hit but unlisted because of pitch total). Most experts have Lackey ranked way higher.