Pitching by the Numbers: What have you done for me lately?

You never get a second chance to make a first impression. But this rule of relationship building can be a handicap in fantasy baseball. We wait so long for the season to begin that how our players perform during it can become the pole to which we tether our season-long perceptions.

Of course, the first five weeks of the season is a significant sample. But we’ve now had five weeks since then. So let’s back out the first five weeks entirely and look only at the five weeks since, taking us from May 7 through Wednesday (June 10).

I believe this is a far more important exercise with pitchers than with hitters. Pitchers are more prone to turning on a dime for reasons that we detailed before training camp even began. While you don’t want to chase a five-week sample with a hitter, necessarily, I do think it can be smart to do this with a starting pitcher. There’s just a lot more data with pitchers over five weeks than with hitters, in addition to pitchers having so many more ways to make seemingly small adjustments that can have very big results.

We’re sorting the pitchers since May 7 in our big stat: (K-BB)/IP. Anything approaching 1.0 is elite. Anything over 0.60 is good. Of course, ERA does not always correlate to this stat but it very often does, which means that you should buy low on the guys who have an ERA much higher than the stat suggests is warranted and vice versa for the big names or elite ERA guys who struggle in the strikeout and walk metric. (And you should believe the elite ERAs of the guys who are elite in the stat.)

There are three classes of pitchers to review at the top of the list: the guys who weren’t pitching the first month, the ones who pitched much better as of late than they have overall and the ones who, again since May 7, have (K-BB)/IP numbers that are much better than their ERAs.

McCullers and Syndergaard qualify in the first category. Both have been good. McCullers has been great. Syndergaard should have a much lower ERA, especially pitching in the National League and, at least going forward, mostly in the NL East. Both are holds, assuming that they are both rostered in your leagues as they should be. Syndergaard’s ERA seems about a run higher than his Ks and BBs deserve. McCullers does not seem the least bit flukey. There are long-term innings concerns with these pups but let’s worry about today. Avoiding guys who are cheap because of innings concerns in mixed leagues seems dumb to me. In September, if you’re still in it, it’s not hard at all to find pitching.

Guys pitching way better of late than they are overall include Hutchison and Martinez. While you have to pay up for Martinez, Hutchison so traumatized owners and the fantasy community in general that he was available today in our Yahoo! Friends and Family 14-team league. I grabbed him. Hutchison (50% owned) has been better the past five weeks than Martinez (81% owned).

The last category is more challenging: guys who have good K-BBs but who still have killed your ERA: Kennedy, Sabathia, Heston, Foltynewicz, May. Heston is probably trendy now off the no-hitter and his Ks and BBs in that start have skewed his stats. The other three are easily gettable. I think we can justify staying away from Sabathia due not just to his age but the AL and AL East. But grab Kennedy and Foltynewicz in that order if you have the need for a sixth starter (and have the nerve). Kennedy’s homers allowed are at a minimum half bad luck (half skill).

Again, see the entire list here but let’s now focus on the bigger names pitching poorly the past five weeks.

Shelby Miller I do not believe in one bit. Trade him now to the guy who needs ERA and who won’t realize you’re actually hurting him.

Jordan Zimmermann has generally struggled in Ks. Unlike Miller, he’s not even a ground-ball specialist. He also is regarded as a second-tier fantasy pitcher, which I think is madness. Get rid of him at that price, pronto.

Gio Gonzalez is another overrated pitcher, tied with Wandy Rodriguez in the stat despite all the league and division advantages. He also was bad last year. So sell him now for any hitting upgrade and just replace him on the waiver wire with, say, Kennedy.