Pitching by the Numbers: Weak contact

Let’s talk about the starting pitchers who were best last year in limiting hit quality while also having playable K rates in 12-team mixers.

First a couple of caveats. There is a lot of sabermetric controversy about using ISO allowed, much of it lined up against the stat (and me). ISO allowed is simply a pitcher’s slugging percentage allowed minus their batting average allowed. It ignores the singles, which are most susceptible to the vagaries of batting average on balls in play luck. The controversy is whether we should use these stats because they take so long to be reliable — multiple seasons if you believe the statheads.

But what is reliable? For me, it’s the direction, meaning can you bet on a guy who was elite in the stat the prior year will be good at it the next year? I think the answer is yes and it’s easy to prove by just looking at seasons where pitchers have ISOs allowed well better than league average (about .140). So I set the bar signficantly below that — .130 and under.

Tim Hudson has done it 11 times, Joe Nathan 9, LaTroy Hawkins 9, Felix Hernandez 8, Justin Verlander seven in a row before last year, Clayton Kershaw every year, Luke Gregerson every year (if it’s so random and takes so long to stabilize, why are relievers with limited innings so predictably good at it). The list goes on.

We have 16 pitchers who have done it every year since 2011 and they’re almost all relievers, pitching as few as 50 innings. We have 14 starting pitchers who have done it three of the four seasons, that’s out of 87 pitchers who possibly could have done it (meaning they were starters who pitched at least 100 innings in three of the last four years). Those pitchers: C.J. Wilson (4), Clayton Kershaw (4), Hernandez (4), Zack Greinke, Alex Cobb (3 of 3), Verlander (again, not last year and he’s getting up there, so….), Charlie Morton, Justin Masterson, Francisco Liriano, Matt Latos, Tim Hudson, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister, Johnny Cueto (3 for 3 in qualifying seasons).

This could happen randomly, I suppose. But I don’t think there’s a high probability of that. Let’s call ISO allowed half luck and half skill (like most things involving pitchers). So again, the stat guys may be calling .100 one year and .125 the next a miss in predictive reliability. I call it a hit because both those numbers are better than average — meaning winning numbers. And with the relievers with the limited innings posting so many seasons better than average, it’s really case-closed in favor of my argument that ISO allowed is not random and does not take forever to stabilize to a degree that’s useful to us in fantasy.

For this list, I’ve set the innings at 50, with the caveat that most games had to be starting. And I’ve also required a K% that we can roster — above 20% (remember, league average in 2014 was 20.4%).

[Baseball 2015 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]

Notice first that the ERAs of these pitchers seem to have less connection to BABIP. And 15 of 25 outperformed their FIP ERA, which is really hard to do. While BABIP is not technically a part of the FIP formula, the practical result is focusing on BABIP because it assumes league average performance in converting balls in play into outs. But I don’t like how BABIP ignores homers and how FIP ignores double and triples. So if I’m going to pick one of these stats to supplement my (K-BB)/IP, it’s going to be ISO allowed.

Again, we’re looking for cheap, so if we’re wrong about the pitcher repeating his performance from last year, it’s not going to break us or even significantly alter our season. In other words, buy your pitching at a cuttable price.

I don’t think deGrom is cheap anymore, given I like to start taking my starters in Round 11 or so (well after I’ve secured two of the five dominant K minus IP closers). Having no chance at deGrom breaks my heart, given how hard I pushed him last summer. But Fiers, McHugh, Richards (given his injury and the league leader in ISO allowed), Ryu, Quintana, Archer, Kazmir and even Wacha can all be had late enough for me, according to average expert ADP. Pineda shows up on all my good lists. He’s obviously an enormous health risk but if you can get him at 173. Go for it. Who cares if you whiff on pick 173?

Jesse Hahn? His ADP is 370. I wish I took him now in the Yahoo Friends and Family League (drafted this past Wednesday) over Shane Greene, who I still really like. But Hahn given his ability to limit hard contact, albeit in a small sample size, seems like am even better bet. Heck, get Hahn and Greene. If there’s possibly a price cheaper than free, that’s all that the world is making you pay for both of these probable mixed-league assets.