Pitching by the Numbers: Harvey climbs the charts

We did our draft do-over at Roto Arcade and were limited to two starting pitchers each. Let’s look at some of the pitchers whose value has changed the most since our Friends and Family draft back in March.

Here’s how they came off the board for us this week, and in parentheses is where they were drafted in March among starting pitchers. (Also, the asterisks indicate the starters I selected in our do-over draft).

1. Clayton Kershaw (1)
2. Max Scherzer (2)
3. Felix Hernandez (4)
4. Matt Harvey (11)
5. Johnny Cueto (14)
6. Corey Kluber (9)
7. Madison Bumgarner (7)
8. Chris Sale (6)
9. Gerrit Cole (15)
10. Zack Greinke (8)
11. Stephen Strasburg (3)
12. Jake Arrieta (20)
13. Sonny Gray (36)
14. David Price (5)
15. Jacob deGrom (19)
16. Cole Hamels (12)
17. Chris Archer (52)
18. * Danny Salazar (51)
19. * James Shields (18)
20. * Carlos Carrasco (23)
21. Jon Lester (13)
22. * Dallas Keuchel (64)
23. Michael Pineda (53)
24. Shelby Miller (77)

Now let’s more closely examine some of the pitchers whose values changed the most.

Harvey was top five for me all along. I thought his March ADP was insanely low. Note that we drafted him then way higher than where he typically went, according to his ADP. There’s nothing to say about Harvey quantitatively because his excellence is so obvious and pronounced. If not for the innings concerns, he should be drafted first. And innings concerns in mixed leagues, with all the September callups and the lack of interference from most of the league if you’re a contender, are no big deal.

Cole is another one I loved and he’s up six spots. The big issue with him was whether his stuff would result in strikeout dominance like it did when he returned in 2014. He’s at a career best 9.8 per nine innings plus he’s a ground-ball machine. The innings concerns some have for Harvey would also apply to Cole, who has never topped 138.

Strasburg is just missing something, hence his drop eight places among just starting pitchers. His (K-BB)/IP is still very solid but not spectacular and a step back from earlier years. Nothing jumps out at you as a problem. His FIP, which is basically a strikeout and walk ERA, is 3.45, which is more than two runs better than his actual ERA. But is 3.45 what we think we’re buying with Strasburg? Why is he never the guy who can go really low with the averages? The homers hold him back in ERA but do not fully explain his issues.

Arrieta is up eight slots, and that’s at least 2-3 rounds. What we are saying is that Arrieta is a fully-certified top fantasy starter now. He’s not a reach and hope. But the one thing that is holding him back from being in the mix as one of the handful of best pitchers in baseball is his command. His first-strike percentage is good. But he’s below league average in throwing one of first two pitches for strikes, two of three for strikes, 0-1 counts that become 0-2 counts and 1-1 counts that become 1-2 counts. He’s not far off in any of them. But he should be better than average at everything and this is all that’s stopping him from being in, say, Harvey’s class.

Gray is better than I thought but the foundational numbers don’t support him being this good. I’d like to see better swing and miss numbers  and a higher percentage of strikeouts in four pitches or less. Those numbers are not bad but they are not dominant either. For example, Harvey is 19% Ks in four or less pitches and Gray is average, at 13%. Tyson Ross leads the majors in this stat, at 22%.

Archer jumped all the way from 52nd starter to 17th. He has gotten a lot better on my lists, too, jumping from a B-level hurler in the stats I track to an A-minus. Does that make him the 16th starter? Probably not. The big problem for me is the headwinds of not just the AL but the AL East. Why buy that problem? It’s about a 5-10% drag. Archer doesn’t have elite bat-missing ability, either.

Salazar was drafted by me in both places but I foolishly dropped him in a roster crunch that’s common in Friends and Family with our silly short benches. I chose to keep Carlos Rodon instead, figuring Rodon would be up sooner and had equal upside. It appears I was wrong on both counts. Salazar is the big-league leader in (K-BB)/IP at a silly 1.2.

Lester went from 13th to 20th. It’s hard for me to find any area in which he shines now. Why is he struggling? Inability to work ahead of hitters as referenced above with Arrieta and ineffectiveness of off-speed offerings, which are getting hit harder and not chased as much.

Finally, I note that Shields is only up one spot compared to March. And that’s strange given that he’s been so dominant in strikeouts. Ironically, that’s why I did not like him in March but why I love him now (I drafted him in this mock). Shields is using his curveball more as an out pitch and he’s finishing off hitters with it. His swing and miss is up from 17% to 25% — shocking. And Ks in four or less pitches have climbed from 11% to 18%. Those stats have crossed the stabilization threshold already, too.