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Packers-Falcons preview: Can Aaron Rodgers outgun Atlanta’s high-flying offense?
Green Bay Packers (12-6) at Atlanta Falcons (12-5)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET on Fox
PACKERS AT A GLANCE
Key Player: RB Ty Montgomery. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is the key player in any game that he plays — maybe for either team. But the Packers have added a dimension few could have seen coming when Montgomery switched positions midway through the season, and they probably aren’t here without him. Montgomery’s two rushing TDs got lost amid Rodgers’ fireworks display in the win against the Dallas Cowboys, although his blitz pickup in that game left a lot to be desired.
The last time the Packers and Falcons met, Montgomery was still a wide receiver — and he was out injured for the game, along with fellow offensive contributors Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, James Starks and Jared Cook. That led to fullback Aaron Ripkowski playing 32 of the Packers’ 62 offensive snaps, and Don Jackson and Knile Davis combining for 18 snaps in the backfield. Lacy and Jackson are on IR, Davis has since been released, and Starks has been inactive the past five games.
Now Montgomery can help add a dimension with his running and receiving that has changed the makeup of the offense. He’s been quietly efficient in the two postseason victories, even if he’s not a big-play threat. But can he pick up free rushers? Montgomery struggled with that against Dallas, and the Falcons might change their defensive strategy in this meeting. Back in Week 8, they blitzed very, very selectively but had much more success going after Rodgers than when they let him sit back in the pocket and pick them apart.
Why they’ll win: With Rodgers, anything is possible. He has played at a nuclear level over the past eight games after losing four straight. Rodgers has thrown 24 TD passes to one interception (which came in the win over the Cowboys) and now has done so for the better part of two games without Jordy Nelson (ribs). We don’t know Nelson’s status yet for Sunday, but the Packers have generated 72 points in the 100 or so game minutes in the playoffs against the second- and fifth-ranked scoring defenses during the regular season.
Even if Nelson can’t go, Cook, Cobb, Montgomery, Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison have stepped up, and the Packers’ offensive line has done its job protecting Rodgers, who hasn’t been hit much at all the past six quarters. The Falcons’ perimeter coverage is sub-par, as each of their top three corners (Robert Alford, Jalen Collins and Brian Poole) can be worked over. Additionally, the Falcons’ limited pass rush might have trouble against Rodgers’ mobility and the line’s good pass blocking.
Does anyone like their chances against Rodgers in a shootout?
Why they’ll lose: One of the quiet keys to victory against the Cowboys was the Packers getting an early lead and forcing the Cowboys out of some of the things they wanted to do offensively. That will be critical again vs. the Falcons, who have the most diverse offense in the NFL and who are tough to beat once they get up. The Falcons this season outscored opponents 139-68 in the first quarter, and even last week they showed they can overcome an early deficit as they outscored the Seattle Seahawks 36-10 in the final 41 minutes.
Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and a devastating run game could run roughshod over a Packers defense that is running out of players in the secondary. Is Morgan Burnett (quad) going to play? Does either Damarious Randall or Ladarius Gunter have a chance at slowing down Jones? And really, the Falcons have proven they can score and win games without Jones going off — as they did in the 33-32 win over the Packers in Week 8.
Can the Packers make enough big plays defensively? One hidden key: Their turnover ratio since Week 12 is plus-16 with 18 takeaways and two giveaways. The Falcons have a league-low 11 giveaways in 17 games this season.
Keep in mind: In addition to the Packers not having the offensive players we mentioned in these teams’ first matchup this season, they were also without linebacker Clay Matthews, Randall and cornerback Quentin Rollins. The Falcons played the game without running back Tevin Coleman and Collins, and they lost tight end Jacob Tamme — one of their leading receivers at the time — to a season-ending shoulder injury on the fifth play from scrimmage.
The Falcons later lost top cornerback Desmond Trufant for the season, too. Heading into this game, they’re mostly healthy although Jones (foot, toe) left Saturday’s win over the Seahawks early and might be less than 100 percent. The Packers might not have Nelson or Burnett available, and Adams (ankle), left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) and Rollins (neck, concussion) are questions as well.
ATLANTA AT A GLANCE
Key Player: DE Vic Beasley. The Falcons have an MVP candidate in Ryan and an offense that is humming and should continue to do so against a shorthanded Packers defense. So it will be paramount that they make plays on the other side of the ball to prevent Rodgers from having his way — and the ball in his hands last.
Beasley is the Falcons’ most impactful defender, even though if you saw the way they hit and attacked the Seahawks, this is also a unit that is growing confidence. Rushing Rodgers will be crucial, as he has the patience to either sit in the pocket and wait for a receiver to get open, or roll to his right or left and destroy defenses that way. Beasley had a big sack in the teams’ first meeting but otherwise had a moderately quiet game by his standards. He’s peaking at the right time in a breakout season with 15.5 sacks and six forced fumbles, following a Seahawks game in which he started heating up once the Falcons shifted momentum and played from ahead.
The challenge increases dramatically this game, as Beasley goes from facing one of the worst pass-blocking units in the NFL to one of the best, led by Bakhtiari and right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Granted, Rodgers’ movement helps the Packers avoid pressures on his own accord, but this group is very good in forming a nice pocket. The Falcons also like to stunt up front, and they’ll drop Beasley into coverage also just to show different looks.
Why they’ll win: The Packers have few coverage options to slow down Jones, Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu and Devonta Freeman in the passing game, and if they overcommit to that, Freeman and Coleman can gash them with a diverse run game for four quarters. Two playoff opponents have rushed for 5.1 yards per clip against the Packers, and the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott might have done even more damage had they not fallen behind two and then three scores in the first half last week.
Good quarterbacks also have had plenty of success this season against Green Bay, and with the Packers so shaky on the back end it’s going to take a special effort from them in terms of pass rushing. It’s very hard to slow down this Falcons offense right now, and with this set to be the final football game ever at the Georgia Dome — and with only the Falcons’ second-ever Super Bowl berth at stake — the place is going to be loud.
Keep in mind: Special teams might not play a huge role with two track-meet offenses on the field, but both teams have had their shaky moments this season in terms of punt and kickoff coverage. The Falcons got undisciplined on a few Devin Hester returns last week, and Giants returners Dwayne Harris and Odell Beckham got some nice field position on kickoff returns against the Packers.
The Packers did not have to defend a Cowboys kickoff last week, and Mason Crosby could opt to just knock it out of the end zone after every score. But the Falcons scored on 57.7 percent of their drives this season (36.5 percent TDs) starting at their own 25-yard line. In a 10 to 12-possession game, that could mean conceding at least 30 points easily.
OUTLOOK
We’ve spotlighted the big-name players, many of them on offense, so far. And it’s possible that there are other disruptive and productive players who have their say in this NFC championship game.
For instance, Packers defensive lineman Mike Daniels had a terrific game the last time these teams met and could be a handful for the interior of the Falcons’ offensive line. Matthews and Julius Peppers are both capable of taking over games, as well, so it’s not all about the Green Bay coverage.
On the Falcons’ side, Beasley is not alone rushing the passer, as Brooks Reed and Dwight Freeney have both had their moments down the stretch. Three rookie defenders also figure to be highly involved, with linebackers Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell stepping up in coverage and pursuit and safety Keanu Neal capable of changing a game with one big hit.
This game also very much boils down to Rodgers and Ryan, and could give viewers an epic shootout. The who-has-the-ball-last theory certainly applies, although Rodgers has been in a different stratosphere of special lately. The Falcons have to do everything in their power not to give him the ball with time on the clock at game’s end with anything less than a 9-point lead. It seldom ends well for Packers opponents otherwise.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!
