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Pac-12 primer: Surprises, disappointments, tiered rankings and more
January is just around the corner. Conference play is finally here. And that means it’s time to reassess college basketball’s top teams and players, as well as its most competitive leagues, as the season kicks into gear. We’ll highlight surprises, disappointments, and player and freshman of the year candidates before ranking teams by tiers and making one bold prediction for the next two-and-a-half months.
The next of our six conference primers looks at the Pac-12, which is headlined a resurgent UCLA team and a strong trio of challengers to the Bruins.
Biggest surprise: UCLA and USC both being undefeated
Two of college basketball’s six remaining unbeaten teams are separated by just 15 miles of gridlocked Los Angeles freeway. Second-ranked UCLA and 22nd-ranked USC both enter the start of conference play Wednesday night with matching 13-0 records.
The return of four starters and the arrival of heralded freshmen Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf have helped UCLA bounce back from last season’s 15-17 debacle. Fueled by an efficient, freewheeling offense that has eclipsed 100 points five times already this season, the Bruins own an impressive road win at Kentucky and solid neutral-court victories over Texas A&M, Michigan and Ohio State. Ball is second in the nation at 8.3 assists per game and five UCLA rotation players are shooting 39.3 percent or higher from behind the arc.
USC’s schedule has been less formidable, but beating Texas A&M, SMU and BYU is impressive considering all the talent the Trojans lost last spring. Point guard Julian Jacobs and forward Nikola Jovanovic both turned pro with eligibility remaining and rotation players Katin Reinhardt and Darion Clark both transferred, forcing other players to take on bigger roles. Jordan McLaughlin has thrived as USC’s primary point guard, Elijah Stewart has enjoyed a breakout season at wing, DeAnthony Melton and Jonah Mathews have made an instant impact as freshmen and Chimezie Metu has emerged as a defensive anchor.
Biggest disappointment: Washington
One year after LSU’s Ben Simmons became the No. 1 overall draft pick despite not leading his team to the NCAA tournament, Washington’s Markelle Fultz could repeat that feat. Fultz averaged an impressive 22 points and 6.3 assists in non-conference play, yet the Huskies (7-5) suffered losses against the likes of Yale, Nevada and TCU and did not defeat a single team in KenPom’s top 150.
Helter-skelter offense and lackluster defense have been Washington’s biggest issues. The Huskies surrender points in bunches because they make too many simple mistakes, from going under screens against shooters, to losing sight of their man on backdoor cuts, to rotating over late on help defense and resorting to fouling. They have the firepower to make up for it offensively, but they waste too many possessions with ill-advised shots or turnovers.
Washington’s poor start increases the pressure on embattled coach Lorenzo Romar, who led the Huskies to two Pac-12 titles, three Sweet 16s and six NCAA bids from 2004-2012 but has missed five straight NCAA tournaments since then. Romar has continued to recruit and develop NBA talent, but the Huskies have finished .500 or worse in league play each of the past four seasons.
Player of the Year favorite: Lonzo Ball, G, UCLA
So much for any lingering doubt whether Ball could transition from an unorthodox, high-speed style of play in high school to a more conventional college system. So far this season, the heralded point guard is averaging 13.7 points, 8.3 assists and 5.8 rebounds, a huge reason why UCLA has finished non-conference play without a loss for the first time since the 1994-95 season. While Ball’s pinpoint passes and impeccable court vision typically draw the most praise, that undersells his impact on the UCLA program. The Bruins have adopted Ball’s personality, from his fast pace, to his competitiveness, to his unselfishness. Ball’s presence has also enabled two of UCLA’s best scorers to shift to their more natural positions. With Ball and Aaron Holiday excelling at point guard, seniors Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton are able to play off ball and do what they do best — run off screens and look for daylight to shoot.
Freshman of the Year favorite: Lonzo Ball, G, UCLA
Ball is a slim favorite for both Pac-12 player of the year and freshman of the year, however, there are a few other freshmen in contention for both awards. High-scoring Markelle Fultz may produce the best numbers of any player in the Pac-12, but will Washington win enough games to elevate him into awards consideration? Versatile 7-footer Lauri Markkanen is a multifaceted scorer who has helped keep shorthanded Arizona afloat, but will his usage rate decrease if Allonzo Trier returns? And skilled forward T.J. Leaf has been UCLA’s best player in some of its biggest wins, but can he sufficiently emerge from Ball’s shadow to vault into the conference player and freshman of the year race?
PAC-12 TIERS
TIER 1: AHEAD OF THE PACK
1. UCLA (13-0)
While UCLA’s defense is merely competent rather than elite, its high-powered offense more than makes up for it. Surrounding Lonzo Ball with three shooters and a skilled center has been a recipe for success. The Bruins are averaging 95.8 points per game, second only to the run-and-gun Citadel. They play at the sixth fastest pace in the country and shoot 62.7 percent as a team from inside the arc and 42.3 percent as a team from behind it, both among the top five in the nation.
TIER 2: TOP CHALLENGERS
2. Oregon (11-2)
3. Arizona (11-2)
4. USC (13-0)
If UCLA falters in Pac-12 play, it will be one of these three fellow contenders who takes advantage. Oregon fell out of the preseason top five with early losses to Baylor and Georgetown, but the Ducks have since reintegrated Dillon Brooks into their rotation and won nine in a row against a manageable schedule. They’ll get a barometer of where they stand immediately as UCLA and USC both visit Eugene this week.
Three freshmen have kept Arizona afloat despite Ray Smith’s ACL tear, Parker Jackson-Cartwright’s high ankle sprain and Allonzo Trier’s indefinite suspension. The Wildcats are 11-2 with solid victories over Texas A&M and Michigan State thanks largely to another formidable defense, the multifaceted scoring of Lauri Markkanen and the perimeter slashing of Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons. Unbeaten USC may also be a factor if it can weather an injury to stretch forward Bennie Boatwright and handle a step up in competition. But with no seniors on their roster for a second straight year, the Trojans are probably a year away from contending for the conference crown.
TIER 3: GIVING CHASE
5. Colorado (10-3)
6. Utah (9-3)
7. Cal (9-3)
Of this middle-of-the-pack trio, one or two is likely to snag an NCAA tournament bid. Colorado achieved the most in non-league play by virtue of its quality win over Xavier and decent win against struggling Texas. The Buffs atone for modest talent by doing a good job getting to the foul line on offense and by playing excellent field goal percentage defense.
Don’t out Cal or Utah even though neither has a notable win yet this season. The arrival of midseason transfers David Collette and Sedrick Barefield has eased the pressure on Kyle Kuzma and Lorenzo Bonam to do everything for the Utes. Meanwhile Cal’s supporting cast around future first-round pick Ivan Rabb is getting healthier with standout guard Jabari Bird back and starting center Kameron Rooks getting closer to returning.
TIER 4: IN NEED OF REPAIR
8. Stanford (8-4)
9. Washington (7-5)
10. Arizona State (7-6)
Stanford and Washington have enough talent to catch a contender or two napping in Palo Alto or Seattle this season, but both are too flawed to make any real NCAA tournament push. The Cardinal boast one of the top frontcourt players in the conference in junior Reid Travis, however, they lack the point guard play or outside shooting necessary to score with efficiency. Scoring isn’t Washington’s issue. The Huskies’ problem is they can’t stop anyone. Until they develop better defensive habits, they can’t be taken seriously this season, no matter how many points Markelle Fultz scores.
Arizona State has navigated an ambitious schedule by alternating between flashes of competence and long stretches of ineptitude. Guards Tra Holder, Shannon Evans and Torian Graham form a potent trio, but the Sun Devils don’t guard very well and their upside took a hit when prized freshman Sam Cunliffe transferred.
TIER 5: LAPPED TRAFFIC
11. Washington State (7-5)
12. Oregon State (4-9)
With losses to Loyola (Chicago), San Jose State and New Orleans, Washington State is just as dreadful as expected this season. The surprise is Oregon State joining the Cougars in this tier. The Beavers broke a long NCAA tournament drought last season, but a barrage of key injuries have led to major slippage. It would be a huge surprise if these two didn’t jockey for last place in the Pac-12 throughout conference play.
Bold prediction: UCLA and USC will suffer their first losses this week in Eugene
With Dillon Brooks healthy and Chris Boucher expected to return from a high ankle sprain this week, Oregon may field its full starting lineup for the first time this season. That’s perfect timing considering the Ducks host second-ranked UCLA on Wednesday night and fellow unbeaten USC on Friday. Oregon boasts a stable of quick guards and rim-protecting big men who run the floor well, making the Ducks well built for the transition-oriented style both the Bruins and Trojans like to play. They also have the athleticism to spread UCLA out, find a favorable matchup and attack off the dribble as well. Oregon should be competitive in both games at home if they defend with urgency. The Ducks ought to win both if they also take care of the basketball and knock down a respectable percentage of outside shots, two season-long weaknesses thus far.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
