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Pac-12 preview: Could the league's own depth keep it out of the Playoff?

Like the Big 12 in 2014, the Pac-12 was the lone Power Five conference to miss out on a berth in the College Football Playoff last year. Stanford and Utah started out 8-1, but were both upset Nov. 14, effectively burying their chance (and the conference’s) at college football supremacy. The Pac-12 had seven teams with at least eight wins in 2015 and the league looks to be chock full of parity again, but could that be its downfall?

A two-loss team has yet to make it into the CFP; the Pac-12 could fall victim to its own depth (and some tough non-conference scheduling) with the league’s best teams beating up on each other. But that depth is a two-way street. If a Pac-12 team ends its regular season with only one loss, there’s no way it misses out, right?

Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
Defensive Player of the Year: Budda Baker, DB, Washington
Newcomer of the Year: Davis Webb, QB, Cal

NORTH DIVISION (in predicted order of finish)

Stanford

(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

2015 record: 12-2 (8-1 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 1st North, Pac-12 champions

Overview: Stanford was firing on all cylinders when it demolished Iowa to win the 2015 Rose Bowl, and there’s no reason to think the Cardinal can’t pick up right where it left off. Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffrey is the best offensive player in college football and is back for his junior year. The Cardinal offense will break in a new quarterback (Ryan Burns will start, Keller Chryst will also play) and three new starters up front but have a reliable set of receivers to complement McCaffrey. The d-line is a bit of a concern as it was in 2015, but the Cardinal have plenty of depth at linebacker and in the secondary to pick up the slack.

Stanford hosts USC before traveling to UCLA and Washington in consecutive weeks in September and road trips to Notre Dame (Oct. 15) and Oregon (Nov. 12). It’s a difficult schedule, but allows the Cardinal to build quite the CFP resume, but it also can put David Shaw’s squad out of the race nationally before the calendar even flips to November.

Best case scenario: Burns hits his stride early in the season so defenses can’t completely key in on McCaffrey. The Cardinal have just one loss heading into Autzen Stadium Nov. 12 and cruise into the Pac-12 title game and perhaps even the College Football Playoff.

Worst case scenario: The quarterback struggles and offenses exploit an undermanned defensive line as the Cardinal finish behind Washington and Oregon in the North.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-2

Washington

Washington quarterback Jake Browning. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File)
Washington quarterback Jake Browning. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File)

2015 record: 7-6 (4-5 Pac-12)
2015 finish: T-4th North

Overview: Washington is a trendy pick to win the Pac-12, even after winning just four conference games a year ago. The Huskies should take a big leap with most of their top players returning, including sophomore QB Jake Browning, running back Myles Gaskin and deep threat John Ross. Browning showed flashes of his potential last year, but did so against some pretty poor defenses. Can he take the next step?

The defense is good, too — perhaps the league’s best. Safety Budda Baker is an All-America candidate and corner Sidney Jones Jr. is an all-league performer. I’d expect big things from middle backer Azeem Victor as well. UW has an uninspiring non-con slate before jumping into Pac-12 play. Back-to-back games against Stanford (a Friday night home game) and at Oregon should tell us if this team can jump into the national picture.

Best case scenario: The Huskies blaze through the non-con and past Arizona heading into the Stanford and Oregon games. UW splits those (or wins both), jumps into the Top 10 and has a fairly clear path to double-digit wins, the Pac-12 title game and even the CFP.

Worst case scenario: The Washington hype dies quickly with back-to-back losses to Stanford and Oregon. The Huskies right their footing, but drop a few more games down the stretch en route to a very respectable bowl game.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 6-3

Oregon

Oregon's Royce Freeman rushed for 1,836 yards in 2015. (AP Photo/Timothy J. Gonzalez)
Oregon’s Royce Freeman rushed for 1,836 yards in 2015. (AP Photo/Timothy J. Gonzalez)

2015 record: 9-4 (7-2 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 2nd North

Overview: Another year, another FCS graduate transfer quarterback for Oregon. Last year it was Vernon Adams, who was brilliant when healthy and led the Ducks to six wins in a row to round out the regular season. This year it’s dual-threat Dakota Prukop from Montana State. He joined the team in the spring, giving him a chance to comfortably mesh with his teammates and learn the offense. Prukop has an array of weapons to work with in what should be the typical high-powered Oregon offense.

On the other side, first-time coordinator Brady Hoke has a veteran secondary to work with but will fill in many new starters on a defense that allowed 37.5 points per game. The Ducks are one of the best teams in the conference, but the defense is a weak spot that could ultimately keep them from the top of the division.

Best case scenario: Prukop and the Ducks win seven of their first eight heading into a tough three-game stretch: at USC, vs. Stanford, at Utah. Win two of those three (with one being Stanford) and the division is in the Ducks’ grasps.

Worst case scenario: Prukop struggles in his transition to the FBS level. The Ducks slip up in the non-con at Nebraska and lose to both Washington teams, leading to a very mediocre seven-win campaign.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 6-3

Washington State

Washington State quarterback Luke Falk. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)
Washington State quarterback Luke Falk. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)

2015 record: 9-4 (6-3 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 3rd North

Overview: After a horrifying opening loss to FCS Portland State, I don’t think anybody could have seen WSU winning nine games. But they did… somehow, beating teams like Oregon and UCLA and coming a missed field goal away from upsetting Stanford. This year, Mike Leach again has a lot to work with offensively. Luke Falk is back at QB with wideouts Gabe Marks and River Cracraft and their top three running backs all returning. Four starters return up front as well, so the Cougars should put up huge numbers (as Leach teams are known to do), but will they be able to stop anybody?

The Wazzu defense improved in its first year under DC Alex Grinch, but its front seven doesn’t really inspire much confidence. The secondary is OK, but WSU looks like a team that will likely have to win a few shootouts (something it is quite capable of doing) to have a chance in the North. Realistically, this looks more like a 7-5 team.

Best case scenario: Wazzu goes on the road and upsets Boise State in the non-con, pulls off a few more upsets in conference play and wins nine games again.

Worst case scenario: Falk’s concussion issues resurface and the offense struggles to establish a rhythm in his absence. WSU misses out on the postseason.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-4

California

Davis Webb and Cal begin their season vs. Hawaii in Australia. (AP Photo/Rob Griffith)
Davis Webb and Cal begin their season vs. Hawaii in Australia. (AP Photo/Rob Griffith)

2015 record: 8-5 (4-5 Pac-12)
2015 finish: T-4th North

Overview: Cal won its first bowl game since 2008 last year with No. 1 NFL draft pick Jared Goff running the show. The Golden Bears’ replacement for Goff, Texas Tech grad transfer Davis Webb, also has NFL potential, but has nowhere near the quality of weapons to work with. Cal’s top three running backs (who combined for 1,585 yards) return, but its top six (yes, six) receivers from 2015 are all gone. On defense, Cal lost five of its top six tacklers, including team-leader Hardy Nickerson (112), who grad transferred to Illinois to play for his dad, an assistant under Lovie Smith.

Oh, and then there’s the schedule. If the Bears don’t win a couple close ones early, the season could turn ugly down the stretch. If there is a bright spot, many of Cal’s toughest games (Texas, Oregon, Washington, Stanford and UCLA) are at home. Still, it will be a struggle to reach a bowl game.

Best case scenario: Webb plays at an all-Pac-12 level while a freshman like Demetris Robertson steps up in a big way at receiver. The defense plays better than expected and the Golden Bears pull a few upsets to miraculously reach six wins.

Worst case scenario: Cal really isn’t a terrible team, but its schedule is one of the toughest in the nation. Hawaii and Oregon State are the only games that Cal is a definitive favorite. A 2-10 record really isn’t out of the question.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-7

Oregon State

Gary Andersen is entering his second season at Oregon State. (AP Photo/Timothy J. Gonzalez)
Gary Andersen is entering his second season at Oregon State. (AP Photo/Timothy J. Gonzalez)

2015 record: 2-10 (0-9 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 6th North

Overview: Gary Andersen knew he had a serious rebuild on his hands when he came over from Wisconsin before last season, and it certainly showed. 2016 shouldn’t be much better. Utah State transfer Darell Garretson should provide a bit of stability at QB with the wide receiver position looking like a bright spot. The defense was really bad last year, so Andersen signed quite a few JUCO guys in an effort to provide a boost with an emphasis on the line. Linebacker is the unit’s strength (in experience at least) and senior corner Treston DeCoud is coming off a solid season. Overall, this team will take a step forward in play. Whether that translates to a few more wins remains to be seen.

Best case scenario: Garretson efficiently runs the offense and spreads the ball to his veteran receivers effectively, allowing OSU to stay competitive in most of its games. The Beavers could even pull off a few upsets with Cal and Arizona at home both looking like fairly winnable games.

Worst case scenario: The Beavers go winless in conference play again and only pull out a single win over FCS Idaho State.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 1-8

SOUTH DIVISION (in predicted order of finish)

UCLA

Josh Rosen threw for 3,670 yards and 23 TDs as a true freshman. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File)
Josh Rosen threw for 3,670 yards and 23 TDs as a true freshman. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File)

2015 record: (8-5, 5-4 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 3rd South

Overview: Only a sophomore, quarterback Josh Rosen is already one of the nation’s best, but the lack of depth behind him will have UCLA fans on the edge of their seats all season. If Rosen stays healthy, the Bruins are the class of the South, if not the conference as a whole. There’s a lot of talented youth around Rosen on offense, and he will need a few guys to step up at wide receiver (look out for converted corner Ishmael Adams). And while Rosen gets the publicity, the defense is the superior side of the ball. The defensive line is scary, and the Bruins’ secondary rivals Washington for the best in the Pac-12. The non-conference slate is tough with Texas A&M and BYU on the road, but UCLA gets Stanford and USC at home while avoiding Oregon and Washington.

Best case scenario: Rosen plays at a Heisman level while the defense swarms opposing offenses. If the Bruins can avoid a slip-up against an inferior team, this team has more than just Pac-12 title potential. A College Football Playoff berth could be in the cards.

Worst case scenario: Josh Rosen gets hurt. That’s it. The Bruins would go from a conference title contender to maybe a 7-win team.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-2

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USC

In addition to being a lockdown corner, USC's Adoree Jackson can make a huge impact as a returner. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
In addition to being a lockdown corner, USC’s Adoree Jackson can make a huge impact as a returner. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

2015 record: 8-6 (6-3 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 1st South, lost Pac-12 title game

Overview: USC has just as much talent as UCLA, but that schedule sure is tough. Max Browne is the Trojans’ new quarterback. He’ll make his first career start against No. 1 Alabama. Good luck. USC also gets Stanford, Washington and UCLA all on the road while hosting Oregon and Notre Dame. There is so much room for error. Browne backed up Cody Kessler for two years, but there is always uncertainty with new quarterbacks. Luckily, he has weapons everywhere to distribute the ball and probably the best offensive line in the Pac-12. That’s a recipe for success for an experienced QB, provided he doesn’t turn the ball over. The defense is good, too, especially in the secondary with Iman Marshall and Adoree Jackson.

USC probably won’t beat Alabama in Week 1, but solid play from Browne could propel him — and the Trojans — to a pretty good season in Clay Helton’s first year at the helm full-time.

Best case scenario: Browne plays well and gets some confidence against Alabama, and the Trojans keep pace with UCLA atop the South, setting up a crucial matchup with the Bruins for the division on Nov. 19.

Worst case scenario: The Trojans stumble to a 1-3 start and folks in L.A. begin to question the hire of Helton. A few more losses to average conference teams could turn 2016 into a disaster.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 6-3

Utah

Utah needs big production from running back Joe Williams. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Utah needs big production from running back Joe Williams. (AP Photo/John Locher)

2015 record: 10-3 (6-3 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 2nd South

Overview: Utah is a team nobody wants to play. Like in 2015, when the Utes won 10 games, Utah is strong in the trenches, especially on the defensive line where Kylie Fitts and Hunter Dimick should be one of the better pass-rushing duos in the conference. The secondary is solid as well, but the Utes replace three of its top four tacklers. The offense loses even more.

Travis Wilson, for all of his faults, had a really good career and played through a bevy of injuries. Junior college transfer Troy Williams (who began his career at Washington) takes the keys to the offense in Wilson’s place, and does so without U of U’s top two receivers from 2015 and star running back Devontae Booker. Joe Williams played well when Booker was injured and will assume lead back duties. Overall, it’s hard to look at this offense and think it won’t take a step back this year — and that will ultimately keep the Utes from the upper echelon of the conference.

Best case scenario: Defense and special teams play help the Utes pull a few upsets, but they fall just short of a Pac-12 title game appearance. 9-3 seems like this team’s ceiling.

Worst case scenario: This offense could be quite bad, resulting in a disappointing early loss to rival BYU. The Utes have five Pac-12 road games and a pretty tough home schedule with USC, Washington and Oregon all coming to Salt Lake City. If the Utes can’t win some of those road games they’ll be favored in, the season could slip into five or six win territory quickly.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-4

Arizona State

Todd Graham is entering his fifth year at Arizona State. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)
Todd Graham is entering his fifth year at Arizona State. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)

2015 record: 6-7 (4-5 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 4th South

Overview: After back-to-back 10-win seasons, Arizona State took a sizeable step backwards in 2015 with only six wins. The Sun Devils had a lot of hype (even some CFP hype) entering the season, too, so that dropoff came as a surprise. ASU is going to be young this year, especially on offense. Sophomore Manny Wilkins or redshirt freshman Brady White will start at QB behind an inexperienced line but has a good group of backs and receivers to rely on. Like its in-state counterpart Arizona, defense could be an issue. ASU likes to attack defensively, so its sack numbers were high, but it allowed way too many big plays. ASU must improve its pass defense if it wants to legitimately contend in the South. There’s a lot of young talent on this team, but it could be a year away from even sniffing a division title.

Best case scenario: Beating a team with a high octane offense like Texas Tech early in the year gives a young defense confidence heading into Pac-12 play. The road schedule is tough, but ASU could pull a few upsets at home and creep up toward the eight or nine win mark.

Worst case scenario: The new quarterback, whoever it is, struggles and the defense doesn’t improve. Injuries could be killer on a defensive line that lacks depth, leading to a decreased pass rush and more pressure on a secondary that is average at best. Those factors coupled with a tough schedule could have the Sun Devils on the verge of missing a bowl.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 4-5

Arizona

Arizona QB Anu Solomon. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)
Arizona QB Anu Solomon. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)

2015 record: 7-6 (3-6 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 5th South

Overview: Everybody knows a Rich Rodriguez team is going to put up yards and points, but will it stop anybody? With star linebacker (plus a barrage of other injuries) Scooby Wright out for most of the year, the Wildcats had a tough year in 2015. Rodriguez brought in Marcel Yates from Boise State to implement a new aggressive style. That attacking style could leave the secondary (which struggled in 2015) in a lot of one-on-one situations, so the Wildcats could be susceptible to big plays. Nonetheless, Yates inherits a lot of experience and should lead an improved unit, but it will likely still be toward the bottom of the conference.

A weak defense puts pressure on quarterback Anu Solomon and the offense to put up big numbers. Solomon, provided he is back to full-strength after dealing with concussion issues, has proven weapons in slot receiver Nate Phillips and running back Nick Wilson, but needs an outside receiver to step up. Trey Griffey could be that guy. In the end, the offensive firepower won’t be enough to put the Wildcats in contention for the division, but a bowl appearance is likely.

Best case scenario: Solomon returns to form and the Wildcats pull off a few upsets during its difficult Pac-12 stretch (Washington, (at)UCLA, (at)Utah, USC, and Stanford in consecutive weeks). The defense takes a big step forward and the Wildcats end up with eight wins.

Worst case scenario: A loss to BYU to open the year could put the Cats in jeopardy of missing a bowl game. They will likely be underdogs in their first five Pac-12 games, so a 2-6 start really isn’t out of the question. Missing a bowl puts Rich Rod on the hot seat.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 3-6

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Colorado

Colorado QB Sefo Liufau. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Colorado QB Sefo Liufau. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

2015 record: 4-9 (1-8 Pac-12)
2015 finish: 6th South

Overview: This feels like the make-or-break year for Mike MacIntyre, but it doesn’t feel like the year the Buffs finally make it back to a bowl game. CU was riddled with injuries in 2015 (MacIntyre’s third with the program) but still kept things quite close in many of its conference games. The program is improving, no doubt, but the Buffs will likely finish at the bottom of the division yet again.

Sefo Liufau is back at quarterback after going down with a foot injury late in the year. He has an experienced line and decent options at receiver and running back to work with, but won’t have Nelson Spruce (89 catches in ‘15) as his security blanket. Most of the front seven is back on defense, which should improve in its second year with Jim Leavitt as coordinator, especially with a stud like Chidobe Awuzie in the secondary.

Best case scenario: The Buffs could realistically open 3-2 if they beat in-state rival Colorado State in Denver to open the year. CU then pulls off a few upsets to reach six wins and a bowl game for the first time since 2007.

Worst case scenario: This could be the season that gets MacIntyre fired. There are maybe three games where the Buffs will be favored. A few bad breaks (like if Liufau gets hurt again) could result in a 3-9 or 2-10 record.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-7

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Sam Cooper is a writer for the Yahoo Sports blogs. Have a tip? Email him or follow him on Twitter!