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How No. 12 Kentucky and No. 5 Kansas match up — with a game prediction

How the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (16-4, 6-2 SEC) and the No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks (17-2, 6-1 Big 12) match up at each position — with a game prediction:

Small forward

Kentucky’s Kellan Grady (12.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 43.2% treys) came to the Wildcats’ rescue in Tuesday night’s 82-74 overtime victory over Mississippi State. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound graduate transfer from Davidson scored UK’s first eight points of the OT on a reverse layup followed by back-to-back three-pointers. A super-senior, Grady is averaging 14 points in UK’s past four games.

Kansas’ Christian Braun (15.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 51.7% FGs) had 15 points and seven rebounds in KU’s 94-91 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech on Monday night. The 6-7, 218-pound junior from Burlington, Kan., has made only seven of his past 27 three-point attempts. In KU’s 65-62 win over UK in last season’s Champions Classic, Braun did not shoot well (2-of-10 field goals, 0-of-4 treys, 4-of-8 free throws) but had eight points and 13 rebounds.

Advantage: Kansas.

Kentucky’s Kellan Grady (31) scored UK’s first eight points in overtime in Tuesday’s 82-74 OT victory over Mississippi State in Rupp Arena.
Kentucky’s Kellan Grady (31) scored UK’s first eight points in overtime in Tuesday’s 82-74 OT victory over Mississippi State in Rupp Arena.

Power forward

UK’s Keion Brooks (10.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 48.5% FGs) had 12 points, six rebounds and two assists in the win over Mississippi State and hit some timely baskets down the stretch. For the 6-7, 210-pound junior from Fort Wayne, Ind., it was his first double-digit scoring performance in five games.

Kansas’ Jalen Wilson (8.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 46.2% FGs) had a monster game vs. UK last season, going for a double-double with 23 points and 10 rebounds. A 6-8, 225-pound redshirt sophomore from Denton, Texas, Wilson’s game has recently been on an upward arc. Over KU’s past six games, he has scored 16 or more points in four contests. If the game is close, Wilson (59.5% FTs) is not a good free-throw shooter.

Advantage: Kansas.

Kansas forward Jalen Wilson (10) had 23 points and 10 rebounds in the Jayhawks’ 65-62 victory over Kentucky last season in the Champions Classic.
Kansas forward Jalen Wilson (10) had 23 points and 10 rebounds in the Jayhawks’ 65-62 victory over Kentucky last season in the Champions Classic.

Center

Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe (16.3 ppg, 15.2 rpg, 61.5% FGs) has a history of strong play vs. Kansas. As a freshman at West Virginia in 2019-20, the 6-9, 255-pound product of the Democratic Republic of Congo hit 11 of 19 shots and averaged 15.5 points and 13 rebounds in the two games, both KU wins, vs. the Jayhawks. After his 21 points, 22 rebounds vs. Mississippi State on Tuesday night, Tshiebwe is now third in NCAA Division I in double-doubles (14) and continues to lead the nation in rebounding.

Kansas’ David McCormack (9 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 50.4% FGs) seems to thrive in games played on Saturday, as he has had double-doubles in the past two such games. The 6-10, 250-pound senior had 11 points and 15 rebounds in KU’s come-from-behind victory at archrival Kansas State last Saturday. Two Saturdays ago, the Norfolk, Va., product hit West Virginia with 19 points and 15 boards. McCormack had seven points and five rebounds vs. UK last season but made only one of nine shots.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Kentucky big man Oscar Tshiebwe (34) is averaging 16.3 points and 15.2 rebounds.
Kentucky big man Oscar Tshiebwe (34) is averaging 16.3 points and 15.2 rebounds.

Shooting guard

Kentucky’s Davion Mintz (8.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 34.3% treys) started in place of injured freshman star TyTy Washington in the win over Mississippi State and had four points, two rebounds and four assists. The 6-3, 195-pound super-senior is in a bit of a shooting lull. In UK’s past three games, the Charlotte, N.C., product has made six of 23 field-goal tries, one of 10 treys. In last year’s UK loss to KU, Mintz had 12 points, two rebounds and two assists.

Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji (21.3 ppg, 5 rpg, 52.7%, 47% treys) is a National Player of the Year candidate. The 6-5, 215-pound senior from Kansas City hit seven of 12 three-point tries and had 37 points and seven rebounds in KU’s victory over Texas Tech on Monday. Agbaji has scored 20 points or more in five of the past six games. Agbaji had 17 points, five rebounds and three assists vs. UK last year, but made only five of 17 shots.

Advantage: Kansas.

Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji had 37 points and seven rebounds in the Jayhawks’ 94-91 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech on Monday night.
Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji had 37 points and seven rebounds in the Jayhawks’ 94-91 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech on Monday night.

Point guard

Often maligned as a poor shooter, Kentucky’s Sahvir Wheeler (11.1 ppg, 6.9 assists) has been on fire since returning from a neck injury suffered against LSU. In Wheeler’s past four games, he has made 25 of 40 field-goal tries and is averaging 16.3 points and 5.5 assists.

Kansas’ Dajuan Harris (5.2 ppg, 3.7 assists) had five assists and four steals in the KU win over UK last year. A 6-1, 170-pound redshirt sophomore from Columbia, Mo., Harris is not much of a scoring threat. In 19 starts in 2021-22, Harris has scored in double figures three times. He is making 42.7% on field goals and 32% on three-point tries.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Kentucky point guard Sahvir Wheeler (2) is averaging 11.1 points and 6.9 assists a game.
Kentucky point guard Sahvir Wheeler (2) is averaging 11.1 points and 6.9 assists a game.

Bench

Kentucky’s TyTy Washington (13.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.4 apg) missed the Mississippi State game after suffering an ankle injury in UK’s loss at now-No. 1 Auburn last Saturday. Obviously, UK’s chances of winning in Allen Fieldhouse are much greater if the 6-3, 197-pound freshman from Phoenix can play. ... Versatile junior forward Jacob Toppin (5.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 52.9% FGs) suffered an ankle injury of his own in the victory over Mississippi State but was able to return late in the game. ... People will, of course, continue to wonder if John Calipari will have highly touted freshman and mid-year enrollee Shaedon Sharpe make his college hoops debut at KU.

A graduate transfer from Arizona State, Remy Martin (8.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.1 assists) was expected to be the Jayhawks’ lead guard but the 6-foot, 175-pound super-senior has struggled. Over the past four games, Martin has made only five of 21 shots. Jalen Coleman-Lands (4.6 ppg, 40.5% treys) is also struggling with his shot, having made only two of his past 11 three-point tries. ... Mitch Lightfoot (5.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 64.2% FGs) is the Kansas version of Tennessee’s John Fulkerson. The 6-8, 225-pound product of Gilbert, Ariz., is a sixth-year super-senior who first played against UK in Rupp Arena in 2016-17 — when now-NBA veterans Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo were Kentucky freshmen.

Advantage: Even.

A sixth-year, super-senior, Kansas big man Mitch Lightfoot (44) first played against Kentucky in Rupp Arena in 2016-17 when current NBA veterans De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo were UK freshmen.
A sixth-year, super-senior, Kansas big man Mitch Lightfoot (44) first played against Kentucky in Rupp Arena in 2016-17 when current NBA veterans De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Bam Adebayo were UK freshmen.

Intangibles and history

Kentucky leads the all-time series with Kansas 23-10 but the Jayhawks have won four of the past five meetings.

Kansas Coach Bill Self Self is 7-4 against Kentucky as Kansas head coach and 7-5 vs. the Wildcats overall. UK head man John Calipari is 4-4 vs. Kansas at Kentucky.

UK is 2-8 in its past 10 games against teams ranked in the AP Top 25.

Kentucky is 4-3 all-time in the Big 12/SEC Challenge but 1-2 vs. Kansas. The Jayhawks are 5-3 overall in the Challenge.

Under Bill Self, Kansas has been on a relentless march to catch Kentucky as the all-time winningest program in NCAA Division I men’s college hoops history. Presently, the Wildcats have 2,343 all-time wins compared to 2,340 for the Jayhawks.

Advantage: Kansas.

Kansas Jayhawks Coach Bill Self, left, and Kentucky Coach John Calipari have gone against each other twice in NCAA championship games. In 2008, Self and KU defeated Calipari and Memphis. In 2012, Calipari and Kentucky beat Self and Kansas.
Kansas Jayhawks Coach Bill Self, left, and Kentucky Coach John Calipari have gone against each other twice in NCAA championship games. In 2008, Self and KU defeated Calipari and Memphis. In 2012, Calipari and Kentucky beat Self and Kansas.

Prediction

Kansas 87, Kentucky 83.

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