NHL Awards at the quarter season mark: Price vs. McDavid?

The NHL has reached the quarter mark of its 2016-17 season. There have been good surprises (the weird Eastern Conference playoff seedings) and bad surprises (Andrew Ladd comes to mind).

There have also been several players putting their names in contention for NHL Awards. Here’s how we see the fields early on for the major awards – a combination of worthiness and whom we think will win.

Hart Trophy

1 – Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens
2 – Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
3 – Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
4 – Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
5 – Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues

We’ve seen demonstrable proof that the Canadiens without Carey Price are a smoldering dumpster fire with a bumbling coach, an overwhelmed general manager and a team that needs substantial player personnel decisions to turn the corner; and with Carey Price they’re an unstoppable juggernaut with a shrewd GM, a team that seems poised to challenge for the Stanley Cup and … well, still a bumbling coach, but whatever, they’re winning.

Price has been absolutely remarkable in the first quarter of the season. You can see the hesitation we saw last season melt away, replaced with an offensive boldness, knowing the back end is on lock. In his first 13 wins, Price had a .960 save percentage and gave up only 17 goals.

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The only other player that can boast having a transformative effect on his team is McDavid, who’s right there with Price in the Hart race. Crosby overcame that injury scare to underline the fact that he’s the best player in the world with a blazing fast offensive start. Kucherov had stellar chemistry with Steven Stamkos before his injury, and kept rolling without him.

The final slot could have easily been Patrick Kane or Mark Scheifele, but we’ll go with someone doing it without a linemate in the top 30 in scoring: Tarasenko, who’s had a hand in 38 percent of the team’s goals through 22 games.

So Price is the leader, but will probably win the Vezina (MVP for goalies!) with the Hart going to a skater. Unless…

Vezina Trophy

1 – Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild
2 – Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens
3 – Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks
4 – Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets
5 – Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins

With due respect to Price, who will probably waltz away with this award to continue his Hasek/Brodeur/Roy-esque run of Vezinas, Dubnyk’s been remarkable. He has a .956 even-strength save percentage in 17 games, two clicks behind Price while facing around the same number of shots. He’s led the Minnesota Wild to a 1.95 GAA in their first 21 games – and that’s not for a Jacques Lemaire team, but a Bruce Boudreau team. Extraordinary.

Price is next, obviously. Crawford’s done some awesome work (.952 save percentage at EV in 18 starts) behind a Blackhawks team that took a while to figure itself out – Rask is probably in this spot for a lot of prognosticators, and he’s been fantastic, too. Sandwiched in between them is Bobrovsky, which admittedly is more a “goalie MVP” pick than one based on the numbers (.932 EV save percentage).

Norris Trophy

1 – Shea Weber, Montreal Canadiens
2 – Brent Burns, San Jose Sharks
3 – Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis Blues
4 – Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators
5 – Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets

Weber is a perfect storm of circumstances.

You have the fact that, in the grand tradition of Drew Doughty, he’s a Canadian-born Norris Trophy-winner-in-waiting. It’s just that we didn’t realize that his stats would be inflated by a world-class goalie not named Pekka Rinne in his Norris season. (Burrrrnnnn.) You have the fact that a Norris for Weber is a Norris for all those eye-testers that have been waiting to kick the analytics community right in the Fenwicks, and rewarding the “losing” half of the P.K. Subban trade would be that boot.

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(Never mind that the knock on the Weber deal was that, in the long term, giving up a generational talent like Subban for an older player would come back to bite them. In the short term, even in apparent decline, he was still Shea Weber.)

And you have the fact that with a 55.43 adjusted Corsi and 18 points in 22 games, he had a hell of a start, too.

Burns had 20 points in his first 22 games, pushing possession (53.35 percent adjusted Corsi) and playing quality minutes 23:56. Of course, while Burns gets the headlines, he’s not even the best defenseman on his team (that’s Vlasic).

Shattenkirk is having a ridiculously good walk year, with 14 points in 22 games and some strong possession numbers. Karlsson is still playing at an elite, game-changing level, even though you saw him blow a coverage on Auston Matthews on opening night, which obviously means he doesn’t deserve the Norris.

All Werenski is doing is putting up 16 points in 20 games, 11 of them on the power play, which pushing possession at even strength in playing over 22 minutes a night as rookie. And yes, this is one of those picks that gives extra points to an unexpected phenom than an expected veteran standout (Duncan Keith), because it’s the quarter pole awards and who cares?

Calder Trophy

1 – Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins
2 – Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets
3 – Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets
4 – Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
5 – Mitchell Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs

What if I told you there was a rookie goalie that went 7-1-0 in his first eight starts, with a .939 save percentage and a 1.75 GAA? Might you consider him among the best rookies at the quarter pole of the season?

Of course you would. And yet Matt Murray is actually left outside of the top five on some quarter pole ballots. Why? I don’t know, some bizarre disqualification for postseason experience that never seemed to stop Ken Dryden from winning the Calder? A penalty for playing on a really, really good team?

Werenski has been outstanding. Laine was the only rookie in double-digits in goals at the quarter mark, and is on his way to having a Calder-worthy total. Matthews went through a dry patch but has been generally as-advertised for the Leafs, but watch Marner skate away with more votes as some sort of Good Canadian Boy hipster pick.

Jack Adams Award

1 – Alain Vigneault, New York Rangers
2 – Joel Quenneville, Chicago Blackhawks
3 – Mike Sullivan, Pittsburgh Penguins
4 – Darryl Sutter, Los Angeles Kings
5 – (tied) Bruce Boudreau, Minnesota Wild; John Hynes, New Jersey Devils; Guy Boucher, Ottawa Senators; Michel Therrien, Montreal Canadiens; John Tortorella, Columbus Blue Jackets.

Coaching awards at the quarter pole pretty much mean “congrats on your great goaltending,” which is why half the League is tied at No. 5. More on them in a moment. Let’s talk about some other guys with tangible results.

Vigneault may not be long for the top spot here but there’s no question the Rangers’ speedier, deeper approach at the start of the season was revelatory. Quenneville is doing his usual excellent work in figuring out where Stan Bowman’s new puzzle pieces fit. Sullivan deserves mention for the Penguins’ start and because his system continues to flourish. Sutter has the Kings at a 2.41 team GAA without Jonathan Quick and with sub-replacement goaltending, so kudos there.

As for the rest, one of whom will probably win the Adams: Ask us again at the halfway mark. Especially about Tortorella, after his team’s shooting percentage and power play normalize.

And while we’re not fully ranking them, we’ll take Patrice Bergeron of the Boston Bruins for the Selke and Loui Eriksson of the Vancouver Canucks for the Lady Byng, for no PIMs in 22 games and handling all of that with grace.

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Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at puckdaddyblog@yahoo.com or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.

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