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NFL Would You Rather? Breaking down Week 14 betting lines

Week 14 of the NFL season got underway on Thursday night with Baker Mayfield putting on a show for the ages, leading an improbable comeback for the Los Angeles Rams as they defeated the Las Vegas Raiders outright as a 6.5-point home underdog. The rest of the weekend offers plenty of intrigue. We have some tight lines and quite a few betting lines that make you raise an eyebrow. Today, we're taking a look at three pairs of games with similar point spreads and talking through which side we'd rather be on if we were forced to make a choice.

Baltimore Ravens or Minnesota Vikings?

The Baltimore Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson on Sunday as Tyler Huntley gets the start at quarterback. The Ravens are 2-point road underdogs against their divisional rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have won three of four games. Elsewhere, in the most surprising line of the weekend, the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings are 1.5-point road underdogs against the 5-7 Detroit Lions. The Lions have won four of their last five games. Which surprising road underdog would you rather back?

Greg: I’m not saying Tyler Huntley is better than Lamar Jackson – his lows are certainly lower – but that throw he made at the end of the Broncos game is one that I wouldn’t have expected Lamar to make. The Ravens won’t miss too much of a beat scheme-wise with Huntley under center. They’re going to keep running the ball, which isn’t a bad idea against a Steelers defense that ranks 20th in rushing EPA. Pittsburgh has won three of their last four, but that was against the Saints, Colts, and Falcons. Kenny Pickett still looks shakier than a baby rattle, the receiver room is frustrated and disgruntled, and it’s going to be tough for the Steelers to lean on the run game against an elite Baltimore run defense that’s giving up just 54 rushing yards per game over their last three outings. Ravens win this one.

The extremely online Vikings fans are BIG mad right now at all the disrespect they’re getting from Vegas, Twitter, and every other corner of the football world. Minnesota is a dangerous team capable of making a run in the playoffs if everything keeps falling into place for them, but they’re not a great team by any stretch of the imagination. It took a miracle for them to beat the Lions at home and Detroit is playing really well right now, winning four of their last five and barely losing to the Bills. Amon-Ra St. Brown decimates a weak Vikings secondary en route to a win and cover, and the Lions install some stained-glass windows bearing his likeness. Give me the Ravens.

Pete: I'm not sure I buy the narrative that the Ravens don't miss much going from Lamar to Huntley here. Down the stretch last year, the Ravens needed Huntley to win them a game or two and he couldn't do it. He had one great drive last week, and it was enough to beat the Denver Broncos, but that isn't saying much. Divisional games in the AFC North in December will always be closely contested and I think Pittsburgh has a decent chance of playing spoiler and getting the win at home here.

At the risk of making the most square pick possible, I think the Lions' being favored here is outrageous. We all are well aware the Vikings are extremely fortunate to be 10-2 and their profile doesn't match that of an elite team. I think this has the potential to be a very good game and I definitely expect it to go back and forth, but at plus-money, I'll take Minnesota who has shown they can win close games at the buzzer. The opposite is often true with Detroit. Some might say that winning close games is pure luck, but I do think that it's an acquired skill that some teams are better at than others. I have to take Minnesota as a dog here, knowing full well I'm as square as it gets.

Seattle Seahawks or San Francisco 49ers?

The Seattle Seahawks barely escaped losing their third straight game last weekend, with Geno Smith leading a late touchdown drive to knock off the Los Angeles Rams. However, Seattle is now right on the playoff bubble. This week, the Seahawks are 3.5-point home favorites over the Carolina Panthers. It's a game Seattle needs to have. Elsewhere, Brock Purdy gets his first start as an NFL quarterback as the San Francisco 49ers play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Purdy's first start will be against none other than Tom Brady, who comes home to the Bay Area. The 49ers are 3.5-point home favorites. Which home favorite would you rather back?

Greg: I love the Panthers in this one. Seattle has given up 615 rushing yards over their last three games and the second-most rushing yards on the season. Carolina is fourth in rushing EPA. If D’Onta Foreman is able to play, I think he has a huge day. I know you hate Sam Darnold as much as you love Baker Mayfield, but he wasn’t completely awful last week, which is the current bar for Panthers quarterbacks. We’ve seen a few bad outings from Carolina’s defense this year – not lately, though. They’re 11th in points surrendered per drive on the season. The Panthers grind this one out on the ground and get enough stops to leave Seattle with the win.

Tampa Bay’s Week 13 victory was more about New Orleans imploding than it was about the Bucs being a competent team. Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich owe Dennis Allen a nice steak dinner. Brock Purdy was impressive in the Niners’ win over the Dolphins, getting the ball out on time and fitting it into tight windows. Kyle Shanahan’s system is more QB-friendly than bridge night at Zach Wilson’s mom’s house. Leftwich continues to run his backs into a brick wall on first down, the San Francisco defense causes Tom Brady to break every tablet on the sideline, and Purdy earns his nickname once again in a 17-9 win. I’m all over the Niners.

Pete: We're in agreement on this one. Seattle very easily could be the losers of three straight and in a free-fall if not for some late Geno magic last weekend. The Panthers play solid defense and they can run the ball, where Seattle is relatively week defensively. Carolina turns this into a grinding game, keeps it close and it wouldn't be shocking at all to see them pull off the outright upset.

If Brady and the Buccaneers' offense looked so bad for 56 minutes against the Saints' defense last week, it's scary to think about how bad they might look against this San Francisco defense. Byron Leftwich and Todd Bowles ain't figuring this thing out based on some comments this week. Backing Brock Purdy against Tom Brady feels extremely weird, but San Francisco wins this game something like 20-10. Give me the 49ers.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 05: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up prior to the game against the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium on December 05, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Can Tom Brady beat Brock Purdy in Purdy's first NFL start? (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) (Julio Aguilar via Getty Images)

Tennessee Titans or Cincinnati Bengals?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Detroit Lions as the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence still try to find some semblance of consistency. This week, the Jaguars are 3.5-point road underdogs against the Tennessee Titans, who are coming off an embarrassing loss of their own at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles. Elsewhere, Joe Burrow has accomplished a lot in his young career, but one thing he hasn't accomplished is beating the Cleveland Browns. Burrow and the Bengals are 5.5-home favorites as Deshaun Watson makes his second start for Cleveland. Which home favorite would you rather lay over a field goal with?

Greg: The Titans are way too banged up for me to trust them this week. Treylon Burks is in concussion protocol, Tennessee hasn’t won since Denico Autry was sidelined, and Derrick Henry is averaging 2.8 yards per carry over his last four outings. Maybe Mike Vrabel keeps co-owning the Jags with Shahid Khan, but I have no interest in touching this game. If anything, I’ll throw Jacksonville into some underdog moneyline parlays with Carolina, Baltimore, and Cleveland.

Is this the game where Zac Taylor finally beats Kevin Stefanski’s Browns? Nick Chubb has run for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns in three of his last four games against the Bengals. He’ll get another healthy dose of carries as Deshaun Watson knocks the rust off. If Cleveland can keep getting to Joe Burrow (17 sacks in four games), they can pull off the upset here. It’s tough for me to pick between the Bengals and Titans since I like the other side on each of these. When in doubt, go with Joe Brrr. I’ll take the Bengals.

Pete: I'll agree that I lean towards both underdogs here, but we have to make a choice. That's the whole point. I've been riding with the Titans pretty heavily this season, but I think I need a break here. The Jaguars are extremely inconsistent, and after last week, we're due for a good week where Trevor Lawrence shows why he was a generational prospect. Derrick Henry hasn't been good and the Titans are banged up. No interest in betting Tennessee this weekend.

Joe Burrow's struggles against the Browns are well documented, and he's probably pretty motivated to put an end to that narrative. If Deshaun Watson looks anything like he looked last weekend, the Bengals blow the Browns out. Burrow isn't Kyle Allen so the Browns won't be gifted two touchdowns. The Bengals are on top of their game now, so I see a world where they get a comfortable win here. I'd rather be on the Bengals.