NFL against the spread picks: Ravens are the contender nobody is talking about

The best team we’re not talking about enough is the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens lost the one time we’ve seen them on the prime-time stage, at Cincinnati in Week 2, and then everyone noticed when they lost to the Cleveland Browns in overtime. That might be why the Ravens’ dominance, especially on defense, hasn’t gotten a lot of notice.

The Ravens haven’t allowed more than 14 points in any game other than that Cincinnati loss, and we can excuse that game because weird things can happen on Thursday night. The Ravens are fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA per-play metric. Their plus-76 point differential is second in the NFL to the Los Angeles Rams at plus-78, and nobody else is close. The Rams and Ravens are the only two teams better than plus-43.

There’s no secret to it. The Ravens play really good defense. They’ve allowed just 270.8 yards per game, almost 36 yards per game better than anyone else. They’re second against the pass and third against the run. For those who like efficiency stats instead, the Ravens are by far the leader in yards allowed per pass play, and tied for seventh in yards allowed per run play. It’s a fantastic defense.

They’ll be tested on Sunday. The New Orleans Saints seem to be hitting their stride after a few slow spots in September. New Orleans looked like a legitimate Super Bowl contender in dismantling the Washington Redskins before last week’s bye. But this will be a heck of a challenge for the Saints offense.

I’m picking the Ravens minus-2.5 (it’s a SuperContest pick as well) for a few reasons. I don’t think the bye was good for the Saints; it takes away momentum from a hot team. We might have seen that with the Chicago Bears last week. The Saints don’t have extreme home/road splits the past couple years, but they’re still a different team on the road, outside, on grass. It’ll be especially tough to move up and down the field against a legitimate Ravens defense. I don’t think it’s a big deal that Drew Brees has beaten every NFL team but the Ravens, but there’s another factor if you like that type of thing.

We came into this season thinking the Saints were a Super Bowl contender, and they have validated that recently. Under the radar, the Ravens might be a Super Bowl contender too. They’re pretty good, even if they’re not getting the buzz a lot of other teams are.

Here are the NFL Week 7 against-the-spread picks:

SUPERCONTEST

Vikings (-3) at Jets: Home underdogs have been quite good all season, but this is more of a play on the Vikings than against the Jets, who have looked good. The Vikings are going to be a really good team at some point this season, and that will include some difficult road wins. Also, the Jets look like they could be without some key offensive players, and the Vikings defense can take advantage of that.

Bills (+7.5) over Colts: Does it feel comforting to pick new Bills starting quarterback Derek Anderson on the road? No. But the Bills have a really good defense, and I’m not sure it’s a good idea to lay more than a touchdown with a 1-5 team. (The line is Bills +8 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

49ers (+9.5) over Rams: The 49ers have played three games without Jimmy Garoppolo and they’ve played hard in all three. The offense doesn’t look bad with C.J. Beathard. Meanwhile the Rams are facing their third straight road game, an unusual NFL spot, and Cooper Kupp will be out. No matter how good the Rams are, this line is too high. (The line is 49ers +10.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Redskins (-2) over Cowboys: Maybe the Cowboys just figured out everything on offense last week against the Jaguars and they’ll be fine from here on out. I’m fine fading that and expecting to see Dak Prescott searching fruitlessly for open receivers yet again. Also, the Cowboys are a worse team on the road. According to OddsShark, Dallas is averaging only 14.3 points over its last six road games (and Washington has allowed just 15.2 points over its last six home games). Don’t let the blowout against the Saints on Drew Brees’ record-setting night fool you — Washington isn’t a bad team. (The line is pick’em in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

And here are the rest of this week’s picks …

Broncos (-1) over Cardinals (picked Thursday): Wow, the Cardinals are bad.

Titans (+6.5) over Chargers: Early London games are back! At least this week. London games in a regular time slot, like last week’s Seattle-Oakland game, are nothing special for any fans in the United States, it’s just the NFL stealing a game from the home fans that have made the league a financial power. Anyway, the Chargers are the better team by far, but London games are often strange and the Titans are good enough to at least keep it reasonably close. I figure this one will be low scoring.

Patriots (-3.5) over Bears: It’s possible the Patriots aren’t a good road team. They’re 0-2 with two double-digit losses on the road, and 4-0 at home. But I’m buying that the Patriots have rebounded, and Khalil Mack probably being at less than 100 percent due to an ankle injury swings my pick to New England.

Lions (off) over Dolphins: The line is off on the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em due to the Dolphins quarterback situation, but are we sure there’s a lot of difference between Ryan Tannehill and Brock Osweiler? Osweiler will start and I don’t see him repeating last week’s heroics. That’s what Osweiler does; he looks like a superstar one week and then makes you forget all about that the next week.

Panthers (+5) over Eagles: I like the way the Eagles looked in their last game, and they got a few days of extra rest. I still think Carolina is a very good team, however, and they can keep this close.

Browns (+3) over Buccaneers: The Buccaneers defense is really bad, and it looks like they could be without linemen Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry on Sunday. Before last week, the Browns were in each game, and it’ll be easier for them to move the ball this week.

Texans (+5.5) over Jaguars: Strange game. The Jaguars have looked bad the last two weeks. The Texans have looked bad every week, but somehow have three wins. I could see the Jaguars defense getting well this week and them winning big, but it’s tough to pick the Jaguars offense and slumping Blake Bortles right now.

Bengals (+6) over Chiefs: The Bengals are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers, and while the Chiefs also lost right at the end at the Patriots, there were a lot of positives to come out of Kansas City’s loss. Not so much with the Bengals. Still, the Bengals are a solid team and the Chiefs defense will allow Cincinnati to score some points.

Giants (+5.5) over Falcons: If Eli Manning can’t have a big day against this terrible Falcons defense, it might be time for a really tough decision. Then again, the last coach who tried to bench Manning got run out of town and will be ridiculed and scorned forever, so it’s probably safe to say Pat Shurmur won’t make a change.

Last week: 9-5-1
Season to date: 47-42-5
SuperContest: 3-2 last week, 13-15-2 season to date

– – – – – – –

Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
Follow @YahooSchwab

Subscribe to The Yahoo Sports NFL Podcast
Apple Podcasts• Stitcher • Google Podcasts

More from Yahoo Sports:
• Report: Rihanna turned down Super Bowl halftime show
• 5 reasons Boston’s back in the World Series
• ‘Potter’ actor left scarred by fantasy football injury
• ‘Deep’ issues for Lakers after LeBron’s debut