NFL against the spread picks: Patriots-Steelers is the matchup of the year

There’s a good reason Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin was talking about a matchup with the New England Patriots weeks ago.

There will be 256 games played in the NFL regular season and Patriots-Steelers is the one that should have the biggest impact on who wins the Super Bowl. The winner of Sunday’s game is very likely to land the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That probbaly means avoiding the Jacksonville Jaguars and their nasty defense in the divisional round. And, of course, it means home-field advantage in the AFC championship game, assuming the No. 1 seed gets there.

This is as big as it gets in the regular season. And the matchup itself is as good as advertised.

If you’re making a case for the Steelers, this is it: Antonio Brown and the offense are on fire. Since a horrible game against the Jaguars, the Steelers have won eight in a row. Roethlisberger has 2,475 yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 100.8 rating in that eight-game stretch. And don’t forget Le’Veon Bell, who leads the NFL in rushing. The Steelers have also been a very good home team in recent years, and Sunday’s game is in Pittsburgh. The Patriots looked vulnerable in a Monday night loss to the Miami Dolphins, and while that might not have mattered much, it’s not the way you want to enter a showdown like this.

And here’s your case for the Patriots: If we throw out Monday’s loss as a classic case of the Patriots looking ahead, the Patriots have been the Patriots for more than two months. They had a slow start, then didn’t lose from Oct. 1 to Monday night. They’re getting Rob Gronkowski back, and he typically plays well against the Steelers. Everyone on the Patriots does well against Pittsburgh; they’ve won 10 of 12 against the Steelers with Tom Brady at quarterback. This has been a one-sided rivalry, and the Patriots know what’s at stake. It’s not just the No. 1 seed at stake for the Patriots. If the Patriots lose Sunday and the Jaguars win out, the Jaguars get the No. 2 seed and a bye and the Patriots would have to play on wild-card weekend (Jacksonville would own the tiebreaker due to a better conference record). And when is the last time the Patriots let down in a game this big?

That’s why this matchup is great. You can make a great case for either side. That’s also why it’s not as fun to pick. I’ve changed my mind on this game multiple times this week. It seems foolish to pick against the Patriots in a big game. It also is hard to pick against a red-hot Steelers team as a three-point underdog at home, especially after watching Jay Cutler rip up the Patriots defense.

I’ll go with the Patriots, though without a ton of conviction. It was a bit troubling to watch the Baltimore Ravens move the ball at will last week against a Steelers defense that clearly misses injured linebacker Ryan Shazier. A staff like the Patriots will take advantage of that. But if you ask me again in an hour, I might change my mind. That’s what makes this game a must watch.

Here are the Week 15 against-the-spread picks:

SUPERCONTEST

Bills (-3.5) over Dolphins: Maybe Miami has turned a corner and will finish the season strong. My guess is they played their Super Bowl on Monday night, and they’ll have a tough time getting back up on a fairly cold day in Buffalo. Tyrod Taylor should return for the Bills, which obviously helps too. (The line is off in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em due to Taylor’s uncertain status.)

Rams (+2) over Seahawks: Linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Both are impact players. Wagner has a legitimate NFL defensive player of the year argument. The Seahawks might be facing a fantastic Rams offense without Wagner, Wright, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and Cliff Avril. If the Seahawks win this, it might be time to put Russell Wilson at the top of the MVP list (this will be a great game too and shame on the NFL for being so short-sighted to not flex this to Sunday night … the line is minus-1 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

49ers (-2) over Titans: I believe the 3-10 49ers are a better team right now than the 8-5 Titans. If you’ve watched these teams play lately, you know why. I loved the Titans before the season, but I was wrong. Look beyond the record and you’ll find they’re not a good team. (The line is minus-1 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Cowboys (-3) over Raiders: Sometimes you can find an edge by figuring out a team’s motivation. The Raiders had to feel last week at the Chiefs was their season. Win, and they’re right in the AFC West mix. Lose, and it’s a serious uphill climb in the division without a realistic shot at a wild card. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been playing well and understand that Ezekiel Elliott comes back next week. I think the Raiders let down after last week’s loss, and I also think Dallas is simply the better team.

And the rest of the picks …

Broncos (-2.5) over Colts (picked Thursday, SuperContest pick): It wasn’t a good matchup on paper, but it was a fun game due to Brock Osweiler’s unexpected big night.

Bears (+5.5) over Lions: The Bears are unpredictable, but they do rise up and play well on occasion. The Lions rarely blow anyone out.

Chiefs (+1) over Chargers: This isn’t the sharpest analysis, but doesn’t this just seem like the type of game the Chargers blow in spectacular fashion? Wouldn’t it follow their pattern to get everyone hopes up with an unbelievable run of football, only to screw up this big game? Also, the Chiefs are tough at home, Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking, and perhaps they got on track a little bit last week. Either way, this a great Saturday night game.

Ravens (-7.5) over Browns: If you picked the Browns last week, that’s an awful loss. But, what are you picking the Browns for? The Ravens have won 17 of 19 against the Browns and the wins have come by an average of 11.5 points according to OddsShark. Maybe the Browns will pick this week to cover the spread, but I’m fine continuing to pick against that happening.

Vikings (-12) over Bengals: I hate double-digit NFL favorites, but the Bengals had some serious “no mas” signs in last week’s lay-down blowout loss to the Bears.

Jets (+17) over Saints: There are some NFL spreads that are just too large. Can’t say I love Bryce Petty at New Orleans, but I’ll blindly take almost any underdog this big.

Eagles (-9) over Giants: I’m a little surprised the line didn’t move much to account for Carson Wentz’s injury. That should give us some value on the Giants, but I think the Eagles rally around Nick Foles and play very well.

Cardinals (+4.5) over Redskins: Two teams that I think are better than their records. Two teams that have dealt with awful injury situations all season. Washington has looked really bad two weeks in a row, and Arizona fought hard in a win last week. If one of these two teams has packed it in for the season, it’s Washington.

Packers (+6) over Panthers: This line moved dramatically through the week, from about three points to six and back down to three. I use the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em lines so I’ll take the Packers here, but I know you won’t exactly find that line in Las Vegas anymore this week. I will say I believe the Panthers win straight up. Aaron Rodgers’ return is great, but he doesn’t fix that defense. Again though, another must-watch Week 15 game.

Jaguars (-12) over Texans: I’d like to take the underdog, but I have no idea how the Texans score any points on that defense.

Buccaneers (+6) over Falcons: Much like the Dolphins playing their Super Bowl on Monday night, perhaps the Bucs look at this prime-time game against a division rival as a way to salvage something out of a rough season. I’m not sure the Buccaneers can win, but they’ll give it a good shot.

Last week: 10-6
Record to date: 113-91-5
SuperContest: 5-0 last week, 40-28-3 to date

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Frank Schwab is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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