NFL line movement: Favorite flips in Bengals-49ers game

Week 14 of the NFL season is upon us. It's the final week of the season that features teams on bye weeks. It's the last week of the regular season for most fantasy football leagues. In other words, it's getting late early out here. Both conferences have plenty of drama as we push toward the playoffs. What's the betting market telling us about this weekend's games?

Favorite flips in 49ers-Bengals

Both the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals are holding on to playoff spots in their respective conferences. However, both teams could find themselves on the outside looking in after this week if they lose. Cincinnati is one of nine teams in the AFC that has either six or seven wins. San Francisco has six losses, but there are five teams in the NFC with seven losses right on its tail ready to pounce should the 49ers slip up. Needless to say, it's an important late season game for both teams.

Oddsmakers made the Bengals 1.5-point home favorites. Both teams are coming off losses last week in games they were favored in, and both teams have been inconsistent throughout the season. However, the line has flipped through zero and the San Francisco 49ers are now 1-point favorites in Cincinnati.

Both teams are 4-3 in their last seven games, so there really isn't much separating them at all. Cincinnati likely has a quarterback advantage while San Francisco might have the better coached scheme with a more talented defense. Nevertheless, the market likes the 49ers to get this won on the road.

Baltimore-Cleveland, the rematch

It was less than two weeks ago when we all settled onto our couch on a Sunday night and watched a beautiful, thrilling Browns-Ravens game on national TV. The Ravens won the game 16-10 despite Lamar Jackson throwing four interceptions. Both teams looked terrible and both teams looked in desperate need of a bye.

Well, one of those teams did get a bye. The Browns had Week 13 off while the Ravens played and lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In that game, the Ravens' offense continued to struggle and Baltimore suffered another key injury on defense. Meanwhile, the Browns got to rest key players who have been playing injured such as Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry and Kareem Hunt.

The market opened with the Browns as 1-point home favorites, and the betting market seems to be siding with the Browns. Cleveland is currently a 2.5-point favorite over the Ravens.

The previous meeting between these teams was basically a toss-up in Baltimore. Since that game, Cleveland has gotten some time off for some key injured players and had a whole week to game-plan against an opponent it is familiar with. The venue also now flips to Cleveland while the Ravens lost Marlon Humphrey in another grueling divisional battle against the Steelers. There's logic as to why the Browns are getting support here as their season is basically on the line.

Pair of big favorites coming down

Two of the AFC's best teams are big favorites at home this week. However, they were even bigger favorites earlier in the week.

The Tennessee Titans are currently 9-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars after the market opened with the Titans as 10.5-point favorites. Tennessee is coming off a bye week, but things were not going well on offense for the Titans prior to their week off. The team was without their top three playmakers in Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Jones might return this week, but Brown and Henry will remain out. Will this offense be able to score enough to cover a large number?

Elsewhere, the Kansas City Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. The market opened with the Chiefs as 9.5-point favorites. Kansas City's defense has been the story in recent weeks as it's the best scoring defense in the league over the past two months.

However, there's still plenty of people wondering what's wrong with Patrick Mahomes and the offense. Mahomes has played one "Mahomes-esque" game in the last two months and it came against these Raiders in a 41-14 win. However, Las Vegas has given these Chiefs problems in recent years, which makes this a fascinating game to handicap.

Key number moves

Not all line-movement is equal. The moves around key numbers such as 3 or 7 is much more influential and impactful in the market. Four games are circling the key number of three this weekend:

Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh: The Vikings opened as 3.5-point favorites on Thursday night, but the current line has the Steelers getting just 3 points from the Vikings. Adam Thielen has been ruled out and Dalvin Cook is questionable, meaning the offense might be just Justin Jefferson and Alexander Mattison for Minnesota.

Carolina vs. Atlanta: The Carolina Panthers are 2.5-point home favorites over the Atlanta Falcons. The line opened with Carolina laying three points, but the market decided a full field goal was too much for this matchup of not very good teams.

L.A. Rams vs. Arizona: One of the best matchups of the weekend has the Rams visiting the Cardinals, where Arizona is a 2.5-point favorite over Los Angeles. The original line had the Cardinals favored by three. The Rams are coming off their first good performance in a month, and I guess manhandling Jacksonville was enough to get people back on the Rams' bandwagon.

Tampa Bay vs. Buffalo: Another quality matchup has the Bills as 3-point underdogs in Tampa against the Buccaneers. The line has not moved yet, but there is -115 juice on the Buccaneers side of the spread, which suggests a move to 3.5 points is possible. If you want to lay just three points with Tampa Bay, it might be best to act now.

Totals moves

Of the 14 games on this weekends slate, 11 games have seen totals drop as early market movement has been favoring some unders. Below is a list of each game's opening total and the current total:

• Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota: 45 —> 43

• Baltimore vs. Cleveland: 43.5 —> 42.5

• Jacksonville vs. Tennessee: 44 —> 43.5

• Las Vegas vs. Kansas City: 49.5 —> 47.5

• New Orleans vs. NY Jets: 43.5 —> 42.5

• Dallas vs. Washington: 48.5 —> 47.5

• Atlanta vs. Carolina: 43.5 —> 42.5

• Seattle vs. Houston: 43.5 —> 42

• Detroit vs. Denver: 41.5 —> 42.5

• N.Y. Giants vs. LA Chargers: 45.5 —> 44.5

• San Francisco vs. Cincinnati: 47.5 —> 48.5

• Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay: 52.5 —> 53.5

• Chicago vs. Green Bay: 45.5 —> 43.5

• L.A. Rams vs. Arizona: 52.5 —> 52