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NFL betting: Will we get more prime-time fireworks from Tom Brady in Week 6?

·Betting analyst
·3 min read
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Prime-time games are back Thursday as Tampa Bay travels to Philadelphia in a matchup that should provide plenty of offense. Overs are 10-5 on the season in prime time while profiting for bettors in four of five weeks. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson did their part last week with MVP-caliber performances, carrying each of their games over the total. This week, Tom Brady showcases his top-three scoring offense.

It's not a surprise primetime overs are continuing to hit five weeks into the season. It's only natural to expect the league's stars to get a little more amped up for a nationally televised game. The betting market will continue to adjust, injuries will pile up, and weather will soon impact games more as the season progresses. Let's hit these overs while the numbers are still good.

TNF: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (Over 52.5)

The Buccaneers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Tampa is 4-1 to the over this season and 3-0 in games where the total closed at 52 or more. This is just another day at the office for Tom Brady. The Buccaneers have scored 45+ and the Eagles have allowed 41+ in 40% of their games this season. Both of Philly's defensive collapses came against offenses comparable to Tampa (Kansas City and Dallas). All signs are pointing to scoring.

I penciled in Tampa for 35, requiring the Eagles to score at least 18 to get us over the total. In the only game Philly failed to reach 20 points this season, they turned the ball on downs at the 49ers' 3-yard line and had a field goal blocked. The forecast for Philly is cool and comfortable in the mid-60s. That sounds a lot like me watching this over hit with ease.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (12) looks over the defense during a game against the Miami Dolphins on Oct. 10. (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (12) looks over the defense during a game against the Miami Dolphins on Oct. 10. (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

SNF: Seattle at Pittsburgh (Under 42)

How low can you go? That's the question over bettors are asking, waiting to see how far this line will drop before kickoff. Geno Smith starts for the Seahawks but I feel like it's the Steelers QB that has me so uneasy about this total. With Russell Wilson out, Pete Carroll now has a bonafide reason to run the rock at a ridiculous rate.

I am expecting to see an ultra-conservative game plan from Seattle coupled with a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 27th in yards per game. Both these teams are 4-1 to the under on the year. Significant turnover variance appears to be the only path to the over and I'm not comfortable banking on that. It sure feels like the Gods are giving us one back from making us stay up late last Sunday night. Bet the under and go to bed early.

MNF: Buffalo at Tennessee (Over 54)

What a week for Josh Allen. He enacts revenge on the team that crushed his Super Bowl dreams and his four-touchdown performance put him right at the top of the MVP conversation. For an encore, he gets to feast on a Tennessee defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency.

The Bills should be able to score against the Titans and Leslie Frazier's defense won't let them control the tempo of the game with Derrick Henry. Buffalo allows the lowest rushing success rate in the league and should be able to force Tannehill to try and trade touchdowns until the final whistle blows. That type of game script falls right into the hands of over bettors. Four of the Titans' five games have featured combined scores of at least 50 points, so with Josh Allen on the other sideline I feel safe betting on some fireworks.

Stats provided by Football Outsiders, teamrankings.com

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