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NFL betting: The Bills are the Super Bowl favorite at the halfway point of the 2021 season

Nick Bromberg
·College football and motorsports writer
·5 min read

The 2021 NFL season is now halfway over and the Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorite. Yes, even after an ugly loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Buffalo dropped to 5-3 after losing 9-6 to the Jaguars in Week 9. That bumped the Bills’ odds from +500 to +550 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM. But Buffalo still has the lowest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl and is way ahead of anyone else in the AFC.

The Bills opened at +1200 to win the Super Bowl ahead of the season and was the No. 3 favorite along with the Buccaneers and Ravens. The Bucs are now just behind the Bills at +600 to win back-to-back Super Bowls. The Los Angeles Rams are No. 3 at +700 after starting the season at +2000 and the 8-1 Arizona Cardinals are at +900 to win the Super Bowl.

The Cardinals have worse odds than the Rams despite having a game lead in the NFC West standings and a head-to-head win over Los Angeles already this season.

The Ravens are tied with the Green Bay Packers at +1000 to win the Super Bowl after nine weeks. Baltimore (6-2) is just ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (+1100) among AFC teams in the Super Bowl odds.

Since the season is halfway over, it’s a great time to see how the betting odds have shifted throughout the season. Here’s a look at the conference and division title odds with nine weeks to go.

AFC title odds

  • Opening favorite: Kansas City Chiefs (+200)

  • Current favorite: Buffalo Bills (+225)

The Bills look to have the edge for homefield advantage thanks to a manageable schedule the rest of the season. The Chiefs are now the No. 3 favorite at +500 behind the Baltimore Ravens at +450. The Tennessee Titans are at +650 to win the conference and the Los Angeles Chargers have improved from +1600 at the start of the season to +900 now.

NFC title odds

  • Opening favorite: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+300)

  • Current favorite: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+250)

The Bucs are getting 12% of the cash bet on the NFC title and there are a lot of teams with similar odds. Five teams have odds of +550 or better to win the conference — the No. 6 favorite is the New Orleans Saints at +2000.

The Rams are the No. 2 favorite at +325 and are followed by the Arizona Cardinals (+425) and the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers (+550 each).

AFC East odds

  • Opening favorite: Buffalo Bills (-160)

  • Current favorite: Buffalo Bills (-650)

The Bills have gotten 60% of the cash bet on the AFC East. The Patriots are at +425 to win the division and the Dolphins and Jets are pretty much out of it.

AFC North odds

  • Opening favorite: Baltimore Ravens (+120)

  • Current favorite: Baltimore Ravens (-160)

The Browns are now +450 to win the division after opening at +145. That’s just ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers at +500 and the Cincinnati Bengals are at +700. This is a close division.

It's also worth noting that someone grabbed placed a $10,000 bet on Cleveland +3000 to win the Super Bowl recently. The Browns — who opened at +2500 to win the Super Bowl and sit at those odds currently — would return that bettor $300,000 with a Super Bowl title.

AFC South odds

The Titans are the second-biggest division favorite thanks to a three-game lead over the Colts and two head-to-head wins. The Colts are at +1000 to win the division.

AFC West odds

  • Opening favorite: Kansas City Chiefs (-455)

  • Current favorite: Los Angeles Chargers (+140)

The AFC West has swung from having the biggest opening favorite to being the closest division through the first half of the season. The Chargers and Raiders (+450) are both at 5-3 and the Chiefs (+160) and Broncos (+750) are at 5-4. The West race should be fun over the rest of the season.

NFC East odds

  • Opening favorite: Dallas Cowboys (+105)

  • Current favorite: Dallas Cowboys (-3000)

Here’s our biggest favorite to win the division through nine weeks. Dallas has a 3.5-game lead over everyone else. The Eagles are +1700 to win the division.

NFC North odds

  • Opening favorite: Green Bay Packers (-250)

  • Current favorite: Green Bay Packers (-2000)

The Packers have received the fewest bets of any team in the division, likely because people thought the North was a bit more wide open than it actually is. The Vikings are at +900 to win the division, though they need to start winning some of these close games to make a run.

NFC South

  • Opening favorite: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-125)

  • Current favorite: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-650)

The Falcons are a game back of the Saints and are at +4000 to win the division while New Orleans is at +550. Few people have bet anyone other than Tampa, however. The Bucs have gotten 95% of the cash bet on the NFC South.

NFC West

  • Opening favorite: Los Angeles Rams (+175)

  • Current favorite: Arizona Cardinals (-185)

This division was the closest in the NFL ahead of the season. Now it’s basically down to the Cardinals and Rams (+150). The Seahawks and 49ers are both +6600 after 3-5 starts, though you may see some bettors finding Seattle tempting with the impending return of Russell Wilson.