It's a little bit of a misleading stat, because the Chiefs have rarely been underdogs with Mahomes starting. But BetMGM data analyst John Ewing pointed out that every time the Chiefs have been an underdog with Mahomes, they've covered the spread or pushed every time. Their record is 6-0-1.
That's relevant, because Kansas City has moved to a 1-point underdog at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night.
.@Chiefs +1 at Bucs.
Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is 6-0-1 ATS.
Mahomes has NEVER lost you money as a dog!
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) September 30, 2022
There are countless stats to show Mahomes' greatness, and that's on the list.
Here are the seven times, via Stathead, in which the Chiefs have been an underdog with Mahomes (there were two games since the start of the 2018 that Mahomes missed and the Chiefs were underdogs; they failed to cover both times). It counts his first career start at the end of the 2017 season:
2017 Week 17: +3 at Broncos, won 27-24
2018 Week 1: +3.5 at Chargers, won 38-28
2018 Week 2: +4.5 at Steelers, won 42-37
2018 Week 6: +3.5 at Patriots, lost 43-40
2018 Week 11: +3 at Rams, lost 54-51 (push)
2019 Week 14: +3 at Patriots, won 23-16
2020 Week 3: +3.5 at Ravens, won 34-20
That's a 5-2 record straight up as an underdog, which is pretty good too.
The Chiefs are underdogs this week against the Buccaneers because their offense hasn't looked great the past two weeks, Tampa Bay's defense has been fantastic to start the season and the Bucs offense is getting some players back this week.
But beware before you bet against Mahomes as an NFL underdog. That bet has never won before.