NFL betting: Colts' Super Bowl odds shift after news of Carson Wentz trade

Frank Schwab
·3 min read

If you believe in Carson Wentz, you might have a good betting opportunity.

The Indianapolis Colts are an interesting team. They have a good coaching staff, fine offensive line, some interesting young position players and a defense that was among the best in the NFL last season. They needed a quarterback though. That's why their opening Super Bowl odds were +2500, which was middle of the road. That reflected the potential of the Colts with the right offseason moves, but the uncertainty after Philip Rivers retired.

The news Thursday that the Colts had landed Wentz in a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles, and did so without giving up too much, was huge in the NFL world. It had ripples in the betting world, too.

Carson Wentz helps Colts odds

BetMGM adjusted the odds for the Colts to win the Super Bowl shortly after news of the trade. The odds dipped from +2500 to +2000.

That's not a huge shift. Last year, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers landed Tom Brady in free agency, their odds moved from 60-to-1 to 16-to-1. The Buccaneers, of course, won the Super Bowl and cost BetMGM when it had to pay out a lot of winning Bucs tickets.

Wentz doesn't carry the same weight as Brady. There's far more uncertainty with him. He was an MVP candidate in 2017, but tore his ACL and the last three seasons have been uneven. His play really fell off in 2020, as his mistakes led to him being benched by the Eagles. He looked like a quarterback who needed a new start with a better situation.

The Colts' situation is very good, but you still have to have a lot of faith in Wentz to see the Colts as a Super Bowl contender.

Carson Wentz starts the second phase of his career with the Indianapolis Colts. (AP Photo/Matt Ludtke, File)
Carson Wentz starts the second phase of his career with the Indianapolis Colts. (AP Photo/Matt Ludtke, File)

Colts in good position to succeed

If Wentz is going to rebound, he found the right spot for it. Colts coach Frank Reich was Wentz's offensive coordinator in 2017 and has become one of the NFL's best head coaches. Indianapolis' supporting cast will be better than Wentz had the past couple seasons with the Eagles. He'll have a good running game led by Jonathan Taylor and some interesting young receivers like Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts were a playoff team last season at 11-5. They are very good.

Wentz is the wild card. If he can recapture what he had in 2017 (Wentz wasn't all that bad in 2018 or 2019 either, considering he didn't have much help), the Colts can be one of the AFC's best teams. All the other pieces are in place, and the Colts still have loads of cap space even after acquiring Wentz, and their first-round pick, too.

The Colts' offseason is far from over. They have figured out their quarterback situation and now can focus on adding more impact players around Wentz. If you believe Wentz can rebound in a better situation, this might be the best time to take them to win the Super Bowl. It's not like their odds will get any higher.

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