NFL betting: Are you bold enough to bet on the Steelers?

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·Betting analyst
·4 min read
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  • Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    LiveTodayTomorrowvs--|
  • Jalen Hurts
    Jalen Hurts
    American football quarterback

The Seattle Seahawks continued to spiral out of relevancy as Russell Wilson's comeback fell short in Washington on Monday night. The 17-15 loss marked the third straight game in which the Seahawks not only lost but failed to cover for bettors. The betting market's lack of confidence in Seattle was demonstrated by oddsmakers opening them as underdogs to a four-win team. Despite Seattle bettors getting stuck with a losing ticket, it's been a good idea this season to bet on teams that enter the week looking to rebound. We saw the Giants, Jets and Broncos all win as underdogs outright against teams that covered the previous week. The trend is now 50-28 ATS on the season with a 64% win rate.

There are three rebound teams in Week 13 in which the current spread isn't giving them enough credit. I am targeting two favorites that should be bigger favorites and an underdog that may have hit rock bottom. Here are my three best buy-low bets for this weekend.

All lines via Bet MGM.

Minnesota (-7) at Detroit

The lovable Lions were ever so close to securing their first win of the season, but that ship has sailed now. The competitiveness of that game had more to do with Chicago's ineptitude than any significant growth from Detroit. The Lions still rank dead last in net EPA per play as a team and their pass defense allows more explosive plays than all but two teams. The Vikings played down to Detroit as 10-point favorites in Week 5, so I expect coach Mike Zimmer to make that letdown a point of emphasis this week. Alexander Mattison rushed for 113 yards in that game, which proves the running game can be effective without Dalvin Cook.

You have to be cautious when laying the key number of 7 on the road, but the gap between these two teams is pretty significant. Minnesota is averaging 29.5 points per game over the last four weeks and the Lions' secondary just got torched by Darnell Mooney for 123 yards and a ridiculous 24.6 yards per catch. I will bet Justin Jefferson puts this secondary to shame. There is too much at stake for a Vikings team trying to stay relevant in the playoff race to take its foot off the gas.

Philadelphia (-6.5) at NY Jets

The Eagles cooled off in New York after getting backed pretty heavily the previous four weeks. Much like Minnesota, they get an opportunity to rebound against a bottom-five team. The Jets defense is one of the worst at allowing explosive rushing plays, which is music to the ears of Jalen Hurts. If Hurts' sore ankle holds him back, the Eagles' running backs are capable of carrying the load.

When Nick Sirianni isn't dialing up a rushing play he is funneling the offense through TE Dallas Goedert. Guess where the Jets rank in covering tight ends? Dead last. The Eagles averaged 34.5 points per game over the four weeks before Sunday's stinker against the Giants. I expect them to get back to form against the Jets in a big way. Even if Hurts' ankle holds him out, I still think Eagles backup Gardner Minshew can get the job done against the Jets' secondary. The Eagles' average margin of victory is 19.5 points in their five wins this season.

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Baltimore

It takes a certain amount of grit to back Ben Roethlisberger in 2021. The Steelers are the team nobody wants to bet after getting shelled by Joe Burrow's Bengals 41-10. Now, they take on their biggest rivals as divisional home underdogs.

Baltimore is coming off another divisional dogfight against the Browns in which Baker Mayfield was unable to take advantage of Baltimore's secondary. The Ravens are ranked 30th in yards per play allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed per game. The days of the Steelers winning behind Big Ben's arm are long gone, but he should be able to find at least some success against his rivals on Sunday.

The Ravens are coming into this game after a sloppy offensive performance where they were held to 3.9 yards per play and Lamar Jackson threw four interceptions. I don't think the Ravens can just flip the switch in a hostile environment at Heinz Field. We are in for a 37-degree, old-fashioned AFC North battle where points are at a premium. I'm happy to get more than the key number of 3 with the home team.

Stats provided by Football outsiders, teamrankings.com, Sharp Football stats, and rbsdm.com.

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