NFL against the spread picks: The Steelers-Ravens rivalry is back in full force

There are different types of rivalries in the NFL.

We call the Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears a rivalry, same with the Minnesota Vikings and Packers. They’re timeless, because the proximity of the teams means the people in those states live the rivalry year round. It doesn’t matter which players are in the respective uniforms. There are also rivalries like the San Francisco 49ers-Dallas Cowboys in the 1990s, with two teams hitting their peak at the right time. Those teams produced great games back then, but if they were playing tomorrow you probably wouldn’t bother to watch.

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens rivalry fits both categories. The AFC North rivals have model franchises, so they’ve been competing for the same prize for a long time. There seems to be a genuine dislike among the fan bases. Sunday’s game, the only game taking place on Christmas afternoon with the division title likely on the line, is as good as the NFL regular season can get.

The Ravens won the first meeting fairly easily, but Ben Roethlisberger rushed back from injury and was ineffective. That game was 21-14 and the Steelers rarely moved the ball. This game should be different.

Pittsburgh is playing very well lately (they have won five in a row and covered the spread in all five of those wins, according to OddsShark), and a win Sunday would clinch the division and also stamp themselves as perhaps the most dangerous opponent for New England in the AFC playoffs. The Ravens have played great on defense, though being without injured cornerback Jimmy Smith is a problem.

I worry some about the Ravens’ secondary without Smith, but I think the 4.5-point spread on Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em is too much. I’ll take the Ravens and the points, and predict yet another three-point game between these great rivals.

Here are the Week 16 against-the-spread picks:

SUPERCONTEST

Dolphins (+3.5) over Bills: I can see the reasons to have Buffalo as more than a field-goal favorite, but it’s hard to ignore that the Dolphins have been pretty good lately. With a playoff berth in their reach, I don’t think they let up.

Titans (-5) over Jaguars: Still OK picking against the Jaguars. (The line is Titans -4.5 in Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Falcons (-2.5) over Panthers: Carolina has played hard and pretty well the past few weeks. But I believe in the Falcons and their offense, especially with Julio Jones back, and think they keep get an important road win.

Raiders (-3.5) over Colts: All right, if it’s a three-point home-field advantage, then we’re saying the Raiders are only a half-point better than the Colts? I disagree.

Lions (+7) over Cowboys: The Cowboys have nothing tangible to play for until Jan. 14-15, when they’ll host a divisional round game. The Lions’ division title hopes will likely come down to Week 17 against Green Bay – and I’m a little concerned about them looking ahead to that game – but they’re not in terrible shape for a wild-card spot and will probably need to win this game to help their wild-card hopes, if it comes to that.

And the rest of the picks …

Giants (-2.5) over Eagles (picked Thursday): This line moved at least four points toward Philadelphia on Thursday, a rarity in the NFL, and now we can see why. At least it should quiet down the Giants’ Super Bowl talk.

Redskins (-3) over Bears: I don’t love what Washington showed on Monday night, but I still can’t pick the Bears to cover a field goal against them.

Chargers (-6) over Browns: I would think a lot of folks will pick the Browns, and I get it. It’s their best chance remaining to get a win. But since October the Browns have lost every game by at least 13 points. The Chargers aren’t playing well but they’re not terrible. And it’s not like the Browns haven’t been trying to get a win for a while.

Vikings (+6.5) over Packers: Minnesota, I can’t quit you.

Jets (+16.5) over Patriots: I almost made the Jets one of my top five picks, but late word about Todd Bowles’ illness changed my mind. Bowles or no Bowles, it still seems like too many points.

Rams (-3.5) over 49ers: This is a really bad game, but maybe the Rams defense shows up. And if Todd Gurley can’t have 100 yards on this 49ers defense, something is really wrong.

Saints (-3) over Buccaneers: I know the Bucs have played well, but the Saints are still tough at home, and they’re not a bad team.

Cardinals (+7.5) over Seahawks: Seattle is still a tough team to predict. The Cardinals will show up for this one.

Texans (-1) over Bengals: Tom Savage played well last week (check out Greg Cosell’s breakdown) but there was no time to think about it, against a terrible Jaguars team that had no time to prepare for him. Does Savage get better with a full week of starter’s reps in practice? Or will he seem a little more overwhelmed in a big spot for the Texans?

Chiefs (-3.5) over Broncos: That Chiefs loss last week was bad, and Denver had an ugly loss too. I know Denver’s season is on the line, but I have to stick with the Chiefs.

Last week: 8-7-1
Season to date: 112-105-6
SuperContest: 1-3-1 last week, 38-33-4 season

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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