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NFL against the spread picks: The AFC West race will be great down the stretch

Who would have thought that a game between the 7-3 Kansas City Chiefs and 7-3 Denver Broncos is probably for second place in the AFC West?

The Oakland Raiders lead the AFC West by a game, at 8-2, although they face a tricky game this week against the Carolina Panthers. Even the last-place San Diego Chargers are a lot better than their 4-6 record. The AFC West is loaded.

The Chiefs’ loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week made Sunday night’s game against the Broncos even more interesting. If the Chiefs lose, they’re looking at third place of the AFC West after a 7-2 start. That’s tough. The Broncos don’t want to be looking up at two games in the AFC West either.

The Broncos are 3-point favorites at home, which seems about right. The Chiefs and Broncos are about even. This might not be the most exciting “Sunday Night Football” matchup but it will be good. I think the Broncos’ defense carries the day and they cover. Whatever the outcome, it will set up a pretty crazy finish in a very interesting division.

Emmanuel Sanders scoring against the Chiefs last season (AP)
Emmanuel Sanders scoring against the Chiefs last season. (AP)

Here are the Week 12 against the spread NFL picks:

SuperContest

Redskins (+7) over Cowboys (picked Thursday): Probably more impressed with the Cowboys after that game, even after Washington got the backdoor cover. I think the Redskins are a pretty good team, and they were never truly in that game.

Titans (-4.5) over Bears: I guess it’s an obvious pick, but it’s obvious for a reason. The Titans watched the Texans and Colts lose in prime-time games, and they’re right back in the AFC South race. The Bears are starting Matt Barkley at quarterback. If the Titans don’t win, shame on them. (Spread is Titans -5.5 in Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em, which I used each week for these picks.)

Ravens (-4) over Bengals: I was a little surprised by this line. If you assume the normal 3-point home-field edge in the line, that’s saying that on a neutral field Baltimore is only a point better than the Bengals without A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard? I don’t buy that. The Bengals aren’t good this year.

Raiders (-3) over Panthers: I’ll say that the scheduling worries me. The Panthers have extra rest after playing last Thursday, and the Raiders played Monday night in Mexico City. But I’m assuming Luke Kuechly is out, and it’s hard to understate how important he is to the Panthers’ defense. Not often I’d pick against a team based on an inside linebacker’s injury, but Kuechly is an exception. (Line is Raiders -3.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Eagles (-4) over Packers: There are a bunch of reasons, and all the injuries are a legitimate excuse, but the truth is the Packers aren’t good right now. So I’m definitely not buying them going on the road and suddenly beating a tough Eagles team. I’m a little worried because this is basically a playoff game for the Packers, but I don’t know why everyone seems to be hanging onto the notion that Green Bay is still a good team ready to go on a run. (Line is Eagles -3.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

And the rest of the picks …

Vikings (+2.5) over Lions, Steelers (-9) over Colts (picked Thursday): One Sam Bradford away from a 3-0 Thanksgiving.

Falcons (-4) over Cardinals: I can see why folks would want to grab the points with the Cardinals, but I’m not. I think the Falcons are pretty good. And I don’t think there’s some late-season rally coming for Arizona.

Bills (-7) over Jaguars: I hate picking so many favorites, but I don’t know why anyone would want the Jaguars now. According to OddsShark, they have failed to cover in four of their last five. They look terrible.

Giants (-6.5) over Browns: The Browns are 2-9 against the spread, according to OddsShark, and one of the games they covered was a minor miracle. They trailed Tennessee 28-13 with less than seven minutes left but scored, got an onside kick and scored again to cover. And I’m supposed to pick them giving less than a touchdown to a 7-3 team? I don’t love the Giants, but no.

49ers (+7.5) over Dolphins: Probably reaching on any underdog here. But the 49ers have looked feisty the last couple weeks. And you can see a bit of a letdown for the Dolphins after a couple tense games on the West Coast.

Rams (+7) over Saints: Wouldn’t feel great with either side. I think the Rams’ defense can be semi-competitive.

Chargers (-1.5) at Texans: The Chargers are better than their record, the Texans aren’t as good as their record, and Houston is coming off a Monday night game in Mexico City and San Diego is coming off a bye. Not hard to understand why the Chargers are favored.

Seahawks (-5.5) over Buccaneers: It’s hard to pick against the Seahawks right now. They’re really heating up.

Jets (+9) over Patriots: I don’t love that Tom Brady didn’t practice at all Wednesday or Thursday. That might not matter because he’s Brady, but I also think the Jets treat this like their Super Bowl. Not like they have anything else to play for.

Last week: 9-3-2
Season to date: 76-84-3
SuperContest: 5-0 last week, 27-27-1

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!