NFL against the spread picks: Sorry Lions, Packers are going to win the NFC North

I’ve always been skeptical of teams whose records are built almost entirely on wins in entirely close games.

It worked out for the 2015 Denver Broncos, who rode that fortune to a title. I don’t think it’ll work out so great for the 2016 Detroit Lions.

The Lions have had one decisive win all season, Week 13 at New Orleans, and eight close wins. They trailed the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars, a pair or terrible teams, at home before rallying to win late in the fourth quarter. And the last two weeks they’ve lost by 11 to the New York Giants and 21 to the Dallas Cowboys, who are the only playoff teams they have played since they lost to the Houston Texans in Week 8.

This week the Lions get the Packers at home, with the winner taking the NFC North crown, and it seems like two teams going in opposite directions.

The Packers are on fire. They’ve won five in a row, winning those games by an average of 13.2 points. For many reasons it all started to click after a 4-6 start (for a breakdown of Aaron Rodgers and the offense, here’s what NFL Films’ Greg Cosell had to say), and now it seems like they’re on a mission to get to the playoffs with Rodgers picking up a third MVP.

I don’t see the Packers slowing down in this game. They got a pretty convincing win against the Lions in Week 3, although the score was a reasonable 34-27 by the end. Green Bay is playing like it could be a contender in the NFC and the Lions aren’t. I’m taking the Packers as 3.5-point favorites in this one. And if the Lions lose and the Washington Redskins win, pushing the Lions out of the playoffs, that will be yet another cruel end to a Lions season.

Here are the against-the-spread picks for Week 17 in the NFL:

Ravens (+2.5) over Bengals: This Week 17 is weirder than usual. Nine of the 16 games mean nothing at all to either team, if you discount Tampa Bay and their one-in-a-million shot. Only two games have meaning for both teams: The Packers-Lions game, and the Dolphins-Patriots game because New England can clinch the No. 1 seed and the Dolphins still have a chance to move to No. 5 and get Houston and not Pittsburgh in the first round. And if Washington loses early, which would put the Packers and the Lions in the playoffs, none of the 16 games will feature one team needing to win to make the playoffs and the loser being eliminated. How do you handicap all these strange games? Beats me.

Titans (-3) over Texans: I’m not including my SuperContest picks here, because I’m a half-game back in the Team OddsShark season standings and want some extra time to think about those final-week picks (I’ll tweet them out as part of my buddy Scott Pianowski’s Throwing Darts), but this could be one of the picks. I think the Titans want to end this season on a good note, even without Marcus Mariota.

Jaguars (+4.5) over Colts: The Jaguars played a lot better in the first game after Gus Bradley was fired. Let’s ride that.

Dolphins (+9.5) over Patriots: Miami has to play hard, because even a small chance of getting to the No. 5 seed and drawing Houston next week is well worth it (the Dolphins would need to win and have the Chiefs lose). I also think Miami, which has been on a major roll in Adam Gase’s first season, want to send a message to the Patriots that they want to compete for the AFC East in 2017. You’ll see the Dolphins play hard.

Bears (+5) over Vikings: No clue.

Jets (+3.5) over Bills: The Bills could sit some banged-up starters and are voluntarily starting EJ Manuel at quarterback. It’s really hard to back the Jets at this point, but I feel like I have no choice.

Cowboys (+4) over Eagles: There are mixed messages out of Dallas if it will rest starters. I assume the starters won’t play the whole game. Even if they sit for most of it, the Cowboys offensive line will mostly play, right?

Steelers (-5.5) over Browns: On one hand, you can say the Steelers will rest starters and last week was their big game so don’t expect much from them this week. But the Browns had one goal late this season, they accomplished that last week by winning game No. 1, and I’m not planning on them playing their “A” game in Week 17 after that.

Panthers (+6) over Buccaneers: The Panthers haven’t played that poorly late this season, last week notwithstanding, and I don’t know that the Buccaneers really feel like they have a chance at a playoff spot. It seems like this line is inflated a couple points based on motivational perception, and I’m not sure that it’s right.

Saints (+6.5) over Falcons: Sure, the Saints don’t have anything tangible to play for. But this is a heck of a rivalry, and I think they’d enjoy wrecking Atlanta’s shot at a first-round bye. This one could be closer than you think.

Raiders (+1.5) over Broncos: Tough call. If the Broncos play hard, I think Matt McGloin will have a rough day. But will a defending Super Bowl champion be that amped up just to wreck a division rival’s AFC West title hopes?

Cardinals (-6) over Rams: Last week, the Cardinals beat the Seahawks and the Rams lost at home to the 49ers. I’m not picking the Rams here.

Chiefs (-5.5) over Chargers: The one thing I don’t know is if the Chargers will have that “it might be our last game in San Diego!” edge again. They did last year. Do you do that two years in a row? And assuming the Broncos-Raiders game is close, the Chiefs have to win to keep their AFC West title hopes alive. Other than the Packers and Lions – and not even them if Washington loses – nobody has more at stake Sunday than Kansas City. There’s a huge difference between a No. 5/6 seed and going on the road opening weekend vs. a No. 2 seed, a bye and one home game away from a trip to the conference championship game.

Seahawks (-9.5) over 49ers: I know Seattle has all of a sudden become inconsistent. But come on. This is a 4:25 p.m. Eastern kickoff, just like the Falcons, so they have to play like they can still get the No. 2 seed and a bye (Seattle has to win coupled with a Falcons loss to get the second seed).

Giants (+8) over Redskins: Obviously this line is high because the Redskins are playing for a playoff berth (win and they get a wild card) and the Giants have their playoff seed clinched. Giants coach Ben McAdoo hasn’t said if he’ll rest starters, though it’s hard to believe they’d play the whole game. If they played a majority of the game and played hard, this line is way too high. Isn’t Week 17 fun?

Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 121-111-6
SuperContest: 3-2 last week, 41-35-4 season

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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