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NFL against the spread picks: If the Steelers are for real, now is the time to show it

When you talk about this peculiar NFL season – pick any so-called Super Bowl contender and you’ll find a few major flaws without even digging too hard – the one team that keeps coming up is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Everyone thinks the Steelers can be very dangerous in January, and there are good reasons to believe that’s true. But they’re also tough to trust because they’ve been so inconsistent.

The Steelers have won three in a row, though two of those games were against the Cleveland Browns and an Indianapolis Colts team without Andrew Luck. Last week’s win over the New York Giants was impressive though.

This week the Steelers have a game that should let us know which direction they’re headed. They play Sunday at a Buffalo Bills team that is 6-6 and is probably out of the playoff race for good with their next loss. They’ll be getting the Bills’ best shot.

I think the Steelers are going to win this one – they need it too, with the Baltimore Ravens tied with them in the AFC North and coming off an impressive 38-6 win over the Miami Dolphins – and start to establish themselves as that dangerous playoff team we think they can be. The Steelers are 2-point favorites in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em and 1.5 in the SuperContest, and I’m picking them in both. We should know by the end of this week if the Steelers are serious about being a championship contender in this wide-open season.

Antonio Brown and the Steelers are on a three-game winning streak. (AP)
Antonio Brown and the Steelers are on a three-game winning streak. (AP)

Here are the Week 14 against-the-spread picks:

SUPERCONTEST

Chiefs (-3) over Raiders (picked Thursday): I’ve been on a nice run in the SuperContest, and have taken over first place among the Team OddsShark pickers. Now that I’ve said that out loud, I expect to lose every remaining pick.

Vikings (-3) over Jaguars: The Jaguars just lost at home to a Broncos team that had 11 punts and 10 first downs. Make no mistake, I’m not making this pick because I love the Vikings. I don’t see how the Jaguars beat a team with a decent defense. (Vikings are -3.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Eagles (+1) over Redskins: The Eagles are a different team at home. They’re 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, according to OddsShark. I like Washington well enough but think it’s a good spot for Philadelphia. (Eagles are a pick’em in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Ravens (+7) over Patriots: I think we’re getting a really close, fun game on Monday night. The Ravens always play the Patriots well, their defense is legit, and the offense seemed to turn a corner last week (read Greg Cosell’s review of their offensive performance against the Dolphins).

Here are the rest of the picks for the week:

Bengals (-6) over Browns: I picked the Browns as an upset pick on the Grandstanding podcast, but I just keep thinking about how awful the Browns have looked for weeks. So I changed my mind and will go with Cincinnati.

Bears (+7.5) over Lions: The Lions have played close games all season. Yeah, the win over the Saints was impressive, but I want to see it twice in a row from them.

Broncos (+1) over Titans: If Trevor Siemian plays I think the Broncos cruise to a win. If it’s Paxton Lynch, I’ll probably regret this pick.

Texans (+6) over Colts: Speaking of regrets, I wish I hadn’t decided to ride with the Texans as my breakout team this season. Though, I said that when I thought J.J. Watt would still be in their lineup, and when I thought Brock Osweiler could be somewhat mediocre. Still, the Colts aren’t very good and shouldn’t be giving six points to anyone.

Dolphins (-1) over Cardinals: So we think the Cardinals are back because they pulled off a home win against Washington? The Dolphins were everyone’s darlings a week ago (or at least in the minds of their fans who kept telling me I had them ranked too low in my power rankings), and one horrible loss to the Ravens shouldn’t change that too much.

Panthers (-1) over Chargers: This time of season, you have to guess which teams will still play hard. Neither of these teams has much to play for anymore, and I have no idea if either will show up. You don’t want to end up picking a team like the Jets last week, and watching them lay down for three hours while getting blown out by the Colts. Speaking of the Jets …

Jets (+2.5) over 49ers: If they canceled this game, who would mind? Or even notice?

Seahawks (-2.5) over Packers: Good game. I’m not sure if the Packers are really back. They were tied 7-7 with the Texans at home in the fourth quarter last week. They’ll need to play a lot better to beat the Seahawks, though Seattle’s inconsistency is a concern. And who knows how much Earl Thomas’ injury affects their defense.

Falcons (-6) over Rams: I refuse to give up yet on the Falcons. I still think there’s a dangerous team somewhere in there.

Buccaneers (-2.5) over Saints: New Orleans’ season pretty much ended last week with their seventh loss. I’m not sure I totally trust the Bucs, but they’re the hot team with more to play for.

Giants (+3) over Cowboys: The Giants need this one more. The Cowboys are an overwhelming favorite for the No. 1 seed in the NFC whether they win or lose.

Last week: 9-6
Season to date: 93-94-5
SuperContest: 4-1 last week, 34-29-2 season

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!