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NFL against the spread picks: Hard to figure out the Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are 3-0 to start this season (AP)
The Baltimore Ravens are 3-0 to start this season (AP)

I liked the Baltimore Ravens coming into the season. They have a good coach, sound front office, and it has been a long time since they put up two bad years in a row. They haven’t had consecutive losing seasons this century.

Still, this 3-0 start doesn’t seem like your normal 3-0 start. They held off the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator a week later. They fell behind 20-0 to the Cleveland Browns before rallying to win. Then they eked out a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Browns and Jaguars are 0-6 combined. The Ravens have beat three bad teams by a combined 13 points. Joe Flacco has three touchdowns and four interceptions. They’re running for 3.3 yards per carry.

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However, they don’t seem like a fraud either. The Ravens are a very good organization, and I assume Flacco will play better and they’ll find a running game. The defense is playing well. This isn’t a 15-1 team in the making, but I doubt they fold and end up 7-9 either. They’re tough to gauge at this point.

This week the Ravens get a nice test against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are in a tough spot. They are on their third road game in four weeks, and none were short trips (New Orleans, Nashville, Baltimore). Going from Nashville, back home, then back to Baltimore to play a 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoff is rough.

The Ravens are favored by 3.5 points and I’ll take them, so I’m predicting a 4-0 start. Then we’ll see if we have a better idea how good the Ravens are this season.

Here are the rest of the Week 4 picks:

SUPERCONTEST

Panthers (-3) over Falcons: Simply put, I don’t think this Panthers team will fall to 1-3. On the other hand, you’re probably OK just doing the opposite of my picks.

Titans (+5) over Texans: I think the Titans are built to keep games close, and the Texans offense needs to show something before they should be favored by this many points. And yeah, Houston is without J.J. Watt. (The line is 5.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Buccaneers (+3) over Broncos: I know I shouldn’t be picking against the Broncos again, but it’s a second straight Eastern time zone game against a Bucs team that needs to win.

Chiefs (+5.5) over Steelers: I think the Chiefs are a good team and I’m fine taking this many points with a good team.

Giants (+4.5) over Vikings: The Vikings defense is great. That overshadowed how bad Minnesota’s offense was last week. This just seems like a “let’s slow down a little on the Vikings love” type of game.

And the rest of the picks …

Dolphins (+7) over Bengals (picked Thursday): Absolutely ice cold.

Jaguars (+2.5) over Colts: I’m not impressed with the Colts. They needed a huge play by T.Y. Hilton last week to salvage what looked like a home loss to the Chargers. I’m not impressed with the Jaguars either, but I have to pick one of them. It does worry me a bit that five of the last six Colts wins over the Jaguars came by 17 or more points (via OddsShark).

Lions (-3) over Bears: I think the Lions are clearly the better team, though it’s always hard to trust them. It’s just much harder to pick the Bears.

Bills (+4.5) over Patriots: Tough call, but I think the Bills have more urgency here and keep it close. They need to get back to 2-2 to feel like they have a shot this season. The Patriots would have been thrilled with a 3-1 start without Tom Brady, and they’ve already got the three wins.

Seahawks (-1.5) over Jets: Russell Wilson’s injuries are a concern, but I think the Seahawks are the much better team.

Browns (+7.5) over Redskins: Seems like the line is a little high. The Browns are engaged and giving great effort each week for Hue Jackson.

Cardinals (-7.5) over Rams: I’m still not ready to give up on the Cardinals.

Chargers (-3.5) over Saints: Get ready for a lot of scoring. The Chargers aren’t really that bad; they’re very close to being 3-0. The Saints have had a couple close losses too, but that defense is still beat up.

49ers (+3) over Cowboys: Seems like a bad spot for the Cowboys, with a lot of key injuries including Dez Bryant, who seems unlikely to play. It’s hard to love the 49ers but it’s a good spot for them.

Last week: 5-11
Season to date: 23-26
SuperContest: 2-3 last week; 6-9 season

Podcast: Which 3-0 teams are legit? Plus: Week 4 picks

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!