NFL against the spread picks: A toothless NFC championship game rematch

Somehow, the NFL didn’t pick Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals as a prime-time game this week. They probably should have a few months ago. They got lucky.

Nobody could have predicted the rematch of last season’s NFC championship game would be between two teams with a 4-8-1 combined record. The Panthers brought back practically the same roster as their 15-1 team, subtracting cornerback Josh Norman but adding receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The Cardinals probably improved their roster, adding pass rusher Chandler Jones. And both teams are much worse, amazingly enough.

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You could say this is an elimination game, but that assumes the Panthers haven’t been eliminated already. They’d need to go 9-1 to get to 10-6, which is probably the record they have to hit to get a playoff spot. The Cardinals aren’t in that dire of a situation, but close. If you figure 10 wins is necessary for a playoff spot, they have to go 7-2.

The line is a little surprising. Carolina is favored by 2.5 points. You won’t see a 1-5 team favored often against a .500 team. I’ll take the Cardinals because they can spread out the Panthers, and secondary depth is clearly Carolina’s weakness (though, maybe I’m hanging on to the Cardinals too long; OddsShark points out they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last 10 games). But both teams need to win. We wouldn’t have guessed that from what looked like a marquee matchup not too long ago.

Here are the against the spread picks for Week 8 of the NFL season:

Saints (+2.5) over Seahawks: I like the Seahawks, if they’re healthy. But Russell Wilson is clearly not healthy. Until he looks close to his usual self, it’s hard to pick the Seahawks giving points on the road. (Line is Saints +3 on Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em, which is what I use for the lines here every week.)

Chiefs (-2.5) over Colts: It seems too easy. However, I think the Chiefs are a pretty good football team. I don’t feel that way about the Colts.

Falcons (-3) over Packers: The Packers are better at home. And they’re still a team that has no running game. I’m interested to see what their offense looks like this week, and if they use a pass-happy, receiver-heavy approach again. I’m not sure that can work long term. (Line is Falcons -2.5 on Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Broncos (-5.5) over Chargers: I think the Chargers are a good team. But the Broncos will be out for some revenge after getting beat in San Diego a couple weeks ago. C.J. Anderson’s injury hurts Denver in the long term, but I think Devontae Booker will be fine the next few weeks at least. (Line is Broncos -4.5 on Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Bears (+6) over Vikings: No matter what is said about Jay Cutler, I do think he’s better than Brian Hoyer. And the Vikings’ offense has some holes. (Line is Bears +5.5 on Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)

Here are the rest of this week’s picks:

Jaguars (+3.5) over Titans (picked Thursday): It’s hard to watch Blake Bortles these days. His windup before he throws has gotten so bad, I finally think it’s time to bench him. If he keeps playing with those awful mechanics he might be wrecked permanently.

Bengals (-3) over Redskins: Another London game, so who knows what we’ll get. I’m still a little stubborn on the Bengals. I’m not giving up on them yet.

Patriots (-6.5) over Bills: A great stat from the “Beating the Book” podcast: Only eight times all season, over 108 games, has an underdog covered and not won. And I don’t think the Bills can win straight up.

Browns (+2.5) over Jets: Josh McCown will start at quarterback, and I think he gives the Browns the best chance to win. The players understand the situation. They know that this might be their best remaining chance, on paper, to get their first win. This might feel like a playoff game for the Browns.

Texans (-2.5) over Lions: The way we talk about the Texans (present company included), you’d think they were the Jaguars. Yet, they’re 4-3 with a 4-0 record at home. Bless the Lions for being exciting, but their four wins have come by 4, 1, 3 and 3 points. They’re not exactly dominant. Also, if DeAndre Hopkins’ breakout doesn’t happen this week, with cornerback Darius Slay out, it’s not happening.

Buccaneers (-1.5) over Raiders: I know the Raiders have won a lot of games on the road so far, but it’s still tough when five of your first eight games have been at least two time zones away from home.

Eagles (+4.5) over Cowboys: Good game, and a tough pick. I think the spread is a little high for what should be a close game.

Last week: 5-10
Season to date: 48-58-2
SuperContest: 2-3 last week, 12-22-1

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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