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NCAA tournament Midwest Region: Dream and nightmare scenarios

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What are the wildest dreams and darkest nightmare scenarios for every team in the NCAA tournament Midwest Region? Yahoo Sports has answers.

More best-/worst-case scenarios from Pat Forde: West | South | East

KentuckyRecord: 34-0 (18-0 SEC)

Last 10 games: 10-0
Best wins: Kansas, L'ville, UNC, Ark. x2
Key losses: None
Leading scorer: Aaron Harrison (11.3)

No. 1 KENTUCKY

Best Case: The Quest is fulfilled. Big Blue nirvana attained. The program that has everything but an undefeated national champion goes 40-0, checking the last box on the all-time checklist. Along the way the Wildcats smash Bob Huggins and West Virginia in the Sweet 16, in retaliation for upsetting the John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins team in 2010, then throttle Notre Dame to reach the Final Four. Kentucky massacres Wisconsin there, having no need for Aaron Harrison heroics this time. Leading by a point in overtime in a thrilling title-game showdown with Duke, John Calipari opts to guard the inbounds pass and Dakari Johnson knocks it away. Years later, families living in Appalachian hollows explain to their children why they are named Dakari. At the welcome-home celebration in Rupp Arena, a vision of Adolph appears and declares Calipari his true heir, adding that he never really cared for Rick Pitino. Cal states that the only thing better than 40-0 is 80-0, and several draftable players decide to stay in school. City of Lexington immediately votes to fund arena upgrades. Louisville loses its first game to a team called the Anteaters. Shortly before spring signing day, ESPN devotes 24 straight hours of coverage to UK, including a “Cooking with Cal” segment as the coach shows Shannon Spake how to make chicken cacciatore. Every available prep All-American commits to Kentucky.

Worst Case: With Joe Mazzulla watching in the stands as a human talisman, Huggins concocts a nightmarish Throwback Thursday – to 2010, specifically. Huggins draws up another crazy defense that turns Kentucky ice cold from the perimeter. Devin Booker and both Harrisons cannot hit anything. Karl-Anthony Towns fouls out after nine minutes of playing time. Johnson and Willie Cauley-Stein combine to miss 15 shots inside of five feet. With the pressure of an undefeated season bearing down, Calipari turns into a puddle of incoherent rage early in the second half and fails to draw up a single play the rest of the game. Kentucky loses in the round of 16, and a 36-1 season is deemed a miserable failure that sparks a night of rioting and months of utter depression in the commonwealth. Calipari and eight players go pro. ESPN returns Duke to Most Favored Program status. After Louisville stunningly reaches its third Final Four in four years, a vision of Adolph appears in Lexington to say it’s time to bring back Pitino.

HamptonRecord: 17-17 (8-8 MEAC)

Last 10 games: 7-3
Best wins: UMES x2, Norfolk St., Manhattan
Key losses: Syracuse, NCCU
Leading scorer: Dwight Meikle (13.2)

No. 16 HAMPTON

Best Case: Season-long four-game winning streak improbably became five in Dayton, as the Pirates upset Manhattan for their first NCAA tournament victory since Steve Merfeld kicked his feet in the air like a delighted child in 2002. Win gets Hampton to .500 for the first time since Jan. 12, and earned it a matchup with Kentucky. Pirates at least enjoy 48 hours as America’s Favorite Underdog and a couple good meals in Louisville before being dispatched in about eight minutes by the Wildcats.

CincinnatiRecord: 22-10 (13-5 American)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: SDSU, SMU x2, UConn
Key losses: Ole Miss, UConn x2, Temple
Leading scorer: Octavius Ellis (10.0)

No. 8 CINCINNATI

Best Case: Bearcats win one for Mick. Taking their customary barbed-wire defense into a familiar arena in Louisville, Cincinnati shuts down Purdue to win its first NCAA tournament game since 2012 as sidelined head coach Mick Cronin watches happily from home. Against Kentucky in the round of 32, guard Farad Cobb gets hot from the outside and keeps the Bearcats in the game until the final media timeout with four minutes left. Season is a success, and Cronin is cleared to come back next year. Meanwhile, Xavier blows its overly kind seeding by losing to former Bearcats interim coach Andy Kennedy and Mississippi.

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Worst Case: Bearcats look like a team that hasn’t beaten anyone in the NCAA field since Feb. 5 and are quickly overmatched by Purdue. This is the Tulane debacle all over again, but against a better opponent. Haphazard ball handling and lousy shooting turn the game into a rout, and Cincinnati’s streak without an NCAA tourney victory stretches to three years. Cronin can only watch helplessly from home. Meanwhile, Xavier winds up in the Sweet 16, and Busken Bakery sells thousands of Musketeer cookies.

PurdueRecord: 21-12 (12-6 Big Ten)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: BYU, Ohio St., Indiana (2)
Key losses: KSU, N. Fla., Vandy
Leading scorer: A.J. Hammons (11.8)

No. 9 PURDUE

Best Case: Boilermakers open their first NCAA tournament since 2012 with an authoritative beatdown of Cincinnati. Rapheal Davis' offensive assertiveness pays off – team that has won 10 of its last 11 when he shoots two or more free throws advances to round of 32. Then, with A.J. Hammons battling Kentucky’s formidable front line to a standstill, they threaten to shock the world and the Wildcats in the round of 32. Kentucky holds on in the final minute, but Purdue’s return to relevance is established. Triple XXX Restaurant in West Lafayette names a burger in Matt Painter’s honor. Hammons returns for his senior season and in-state recruiting surges. Indiana loses by 30 to Wichita State, Butler and Notre Dame are upset in their first games, and the Boilers carry the flag for the Hoosier State.

Worst Case: Team that peaked in late January and early February continues to slide, failing to score 55 points in a round-of-64 loss to Cincinnati. Davis shoots zero free throws. Hammons’ talent returns to hiding. Nobody can make shots. Purdue remains Just Another Program in the Big Ten and in the minds of in-state recruits. Indiana, Butler, Notre Dame and Valparaiso all advance, and the Hoosier State leaves the Boilers behind.

West VirginiaRecord: 23-9 (11-7 B12)

Last 10 games: 5-5
Best wins: OK, Kansas, OK State x2
Key losses: ISU x2, Kansas, Baylor x3
Leading scorer: Juwan Staten (14.5)

No. 5 WEST VIRGINIA

Best Case: With senior guards Juwan Staten and Gary Browne back from injury and disruptive as ever, Mountaineers make a memorable run. They dispatch Buffalo with ease, then catch Cinderella Valparaiso in the second round and win that one, too. And every five years, the Mountaineers face an unbeatable Kentucky team in the tournament and make magic happen – last time in the regional final, this time in the Sweet 16. Staten reprises his Kansas game-winner, driving through the Wildcats to beat them at the buzzer. WVU refuses to go flat emotionally after huge upset and defeats Notre Dame to reach the Final Four. Run ends against Wisconsin, but nobody complains. Rejuvenated Bob Huggins signs on for five more years. Mountaineers fans ask Pitt fans how they’re liking the NIT.

Worst Case: Staten and Browne never return to full speed, and underdog Buffalo succeeds in fouling out every Mountaineer but the mascot in a round-of-64 upset. As the fouls mount, Huggins loses his mind and gets ejected. After calming down, Huggins decides he’s done and retires. Pitt fans enjoying the ACC ask West Virginia fans how they’re liking all those trips to Texas for road games.

BuffaloRecord: 23-9 (11-7 MAC)

Last 10 games: 8-2
Best wins: Cent. Mich.
Key losses: Kentucky, Wisconsin
Leading scorer: Justin Moss (17.7)

No. 12 BUFFALO

Best Case: Holy Hurley, the Bulls’ best year ever continues with an upset of West Virginia, as guard Shannon Evans continues his stellar late-season play by outdueling Juwan Staten. But it doesn’t end there – Buffalo draws Valparaiso in the round of 32 and advances, extending its winning streak to 10 games. With Syracuse banned, Western New York wraps its parka-encased arms around the eternally ignored program. In a Sweet 16 matchup with Kentucky, the very sight of ex-Dukie Bobby Hurley evokes Pavlovian fear and loathing in UK fans. Just as they did when the two teams met in November, Bulls take a halftime lead and induce panic. They submit in the second half, but this is the city of Buffalo’s best sports moment since Jim Kelly was playing quarterback. Hurley decides he loves it there and signs new, long-term deal.

Worst Case: Bulls quickly realize there aren’t many athletes in the Mid-American Conference like West Virginia’s. Defensively unable to contain Staten, Buffalo is run out of the gym and Western New York resumes ignoring the Bulls after feigning interest for a few days. Hurley is courted for several jobs and cannot wait to accept one of them. Buffalo goes back to being a rank-and-file member of the MAC.

MarylandRecord: 27-6 (14-4 B10)

Last 10 games: 8-2
Best wins: ISU, MSU x2, Wisky
Key losses: Virg., Indiana, OSU
Leading scorer: Melo Trimble (16.3)

No. 4 MARYLAND

Best Case: In their first NCAA tournament in five years, the Melo & Dez Show propels the Terrapins to the Sweet 16. Guards Melo Trimble and Dez Wells combine for 50 points against a Valparaiso team that cannot match up athletically, then put 50 more on West Virginia in the round of 32. Students who dress like Mark Turgeon go viral. Maryland then pushes Kentucky to the brink in the Sweet 16 as Scott Van Pelt prepares a “SportsCenter” sonnet to the Terps before they fall just short. That run is enough to re-establish Maryland basketball as a contender. Jim Delany thanks the Terps for making him look good. All Maryland’s old ACC rivals flop. Trimble says he’s coming back for his sophomore year.

Worst Case: Team that became rather donut-like as the season wore on doesn’t fare well against a tall Valparaiso bunch that does work on the glass. With a lot of weight on their shoulders, Trimble and Wells can’t make enough shots and Trimble’s patented head-whip draws no phantom foul calls. Turgeon, who hasn’t won an NCAA tourney game since 2010, puckers on the sideline. Angry students who dress like him burn their suits and stop spray-painting spots in their hair. Van Pelt quickly moves on to other news. Delany says thanks for nothing. As their teams advance to the Final Four, Duke and North Carolina fans sarcastically tell Maryland backers how much they miss them.

ValparaisoRecord: 28-5 (13-3 Horizon)

Last 10 games: 9-1
Best wins: Green Bay (2), Murray St.
Key losses: Green Bay, Mizzou
Leading scorer: Alec Peters (16.8)

No. 13 VALPARAISO

Best Case: Crusade for respect rolls into Columbus and catches Maryland by surprise, as Valpo’s assiduous defense frustrates the Terrapins guards. Coach Bryce Drew joins player Bryce Drew in the school’s pantheon of NCAA tourney heroes after outmaneuvering Mark Turgeon. Valpo then knocks off West Virginia and moves into a Cinderella Sweet 16, and stretch four Alec Peters lands on cover of Sports Illustrated. Run ends against Kentucky but nobody is disappointed. Drew turns down offers from bigger schools to coach a team that should be even better next year.

Worst Case: Crusade for respect runs into a Maryland team that recognizes a dangerous opponent and adequately prepares for it. Team that has not scored more than 60 points in a game since mid-February cannot match firepower with the Terrapins. Stretch four Peters cannot stretch a mobile Maryland front line. Bryce Drew the coach cannot match Bryce Drew the player’s heroics, but does match brother Scott Drew’s desire for a bigger job and leaves after the season.

ButlerRecord: 22-10 (12-6 Big East)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: UNC, Georgetown
Key losses: OK, Nova x2, Georgetown x2
Leading scorer: Kellen Dunham (16.7)

No. 6 BUTLER

Best Case: Bulldogs revive the magic of the Brad Stevens era, beating fraudulent Texas in their first game and then upsetting a flat Notre Dame team that left its best basketball in Greensboro, N.C., at the ACC tournament. Shooter Kellen Dunham lights up Pittsburgh with 12 3’s in the two games. Bulldog mascot again becomes the slobbering darling of March. With Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack showing up to lend support, Butler wins a Sweet 16 rock fight with Wichita State and struts into the regional final. Run ends there against Kentucky, but Lexington-area native Chris Holtmann puts a coaching scare into John Calipari in the process. Nation falls back in love with Butler, which makes deepest run of any Indiana schools.

Worst Case: Nation never has time to fall back in love with Butler as the Bulldogs are waylaid inside by Texas big men and dispatched Thursday afternoon. Bad matchup exposes Butler’s interior issues, and Dunham makes no shots. Overstimulated Bulldog lifts leg at courtside. Nostalgia for Stevens era dies a quick and quiet death. Victorious fans of Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame and Valparaiso mock Butler fans for sullying the NCAA neighborhood.

TexasRecord: 20-13 (8-10 Big 12)

Last 10 games: 5-5
Best wins: Iowa, W.Va., Baylor
Key losses: ISU x3, UK, Oklahoma x2
Leading scorer: Isaiah Taylor (13.1)

No. 11 TEXAS

Best Case: Realizing his team is lucky just to be here, Rick Barnes stays out of it and lets his talent do its thing. Blessed with a good matchup against small Butler, big men Myles Turner and Cam Ridley dominate the interior. Longhorns then catch similarly small Notre Dame in the round of 32 and prevail there, too. Wichita State does Texas a favor by sparing it a third loss to Kansas this season, and the 'Horns somehow wander into the regional final before losing to Kentucky for the second time this season. Barnes decides that’s a good note to go out on and retires, freeing the school to hire a better coach. Meanwhile, Texas A&M watches its fourth straight Big Dance on TV.

Worst Case: Longhorns immediately meet a team too disciplined defensively for their dysfunctional offense to take advantage of. Turner continues to chafe at role coming off the bench, guards continue to be careless with the ball, and Barnes flops in X-and-O matchup with sharp Butler coach Chris Holtmann. Athletic director Steve Patterson decides he doesn’t want to mess with a coaching search, declares gift NCAA bid a positive and retains Barnes. Meanwhile, Kevin Sumlin gets in the SwagCopter and lands another five-star commitment for A&M.

Notre DameRecord: 29-5 (14-4 ACC)

Last 10 games: 8-2
Best wins: UNC x2, Duke x2, L'ville
Key losses: Virginia, Duke, Pitt
Leading scorer: Jerian Grant (16.8)

No. 3 NOTRE DAME

Best Case: The breakthrough in Greensboro, N.C., was only the beginning. After breaking through a long-established program ceiling, Fighting Irish are free to be great. Dazzling offensive team blitzes Northeastern and Butler, as Jerian Grant becomes the star of the first weekend of the tourney. Pat Connaughton and Steve Vasturia then shoot down Kansas in the Sweet 16, marking Notre Dame’s deepest NCAA tourney run since losing to Magic Johnson and Michigan State in the Elite Eight in 1979. Irish are stunned and pleased to see West Virginia in the next game, after the Mountaineers shock Kentucky. Notre Dame wins and advances to just its second Final Four, as Digger Phelps nostalgia runs wild. Irish overcome Wisconsin on a Zach Auguste putback at the buzzer, then beat Duke for the third time this season in an all-ACC title game (cough) to claim their first national title. One night later, Notre Dame women shock Connecticut and win that title, too. Dick Vitale and Regis Philbin nearly expire with joy. Subway Alumni stop complaining about Brian Kelly and embrace basketball powerhouse status.

Worst Case: Emotionally hung over from ACC tournament triumph, Fighting Irish aren’t ready for the first tipoff of the round of 64 at 12:15 Thursday. Northeastern is ready. Dangerous shooting team takes advantage of the usual lax Notre Dame defense and the Irish fall into a deep hole early. Foul trouble kills Mike Brey’s team inside, and Notre Dame is shockingly the first team out of the real bracket. Dick Vitale and Regis Philbin never get the chance to be obnoxious, and there is no Digger nostalgia to be found. Disgusted Subway Alumni chalk up another early-round exit and go back to complaining about Brian Kelly.

NortheasternRecord: 23-11 (12-6 CAA)

Last 10 games: 7-3
Best wins: Manhattan, W&M x2
Key losses: UNC-Wilm. x2
Leading scorer: Scott Eatherton (14.6)

No. 14 NORTHEASTERN

Best Case: Huskies team energized by a great Colonial Athletic Association run takes the fight to sleepwalking Notre Dame in the first game of the round of 64. Hot from the outside and effective inside against a porous defense, Northeastern gets an early lead, gets the Pittsburgh crowd on its side and puts the Irish into panic mode. It hangs on to win its first NCAA tourney game in more than three decades, then draws a good matchup against Butler in the round of 32 and beats the Bulldogs, too. Bill Belichick and some random Red Sox jump on bandwagon of Boston school and show up at Sweet 16, where the Huskies are pummeled by Kansas but nobody cares. Coach Bill Coen returns loyalty of school that has kept him for nine seasons, five of them losing, by signing a new long-term deal.

Worst Case: Notre Dame is not sleepwalking, and the energy of that CAA run wore off days ago. Already an iffy defensive team, Huskies get strafed from 3-point range by hot Irish shooters and are never in the game. Northeastern goes back to being ignored in Boston by Belichick and everyone else.

Wichita StateRecord: 28-4 (17-1 MVC)

Last 10 games: 9-1
Best wins: Memphis, Northern Iowa
Key losses: Utah, Northern Iowa
Leading scorer: Ron Baker (15.0)

No. 7 WICHITA STATE

Best Case: Righteously cranky about the annual bracket screw job by the selection committee, the seventh-seeded Shockers unleash some fury on Indiana. After pounding the Hoosiers, they are blessed with the ultimate opportunity – hated Kansas on a neutral court, with no chance for the Jayhawks to duck a “rivalry” that was last played in 1993. With all the motivation and none of the pressure, Wichita’s guard trio of Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet and Tekele Cotton outplays the Jayhawks’ backcourt and delivers one of the most delicious wins in program history. Not stopping there, the Shockers roll into Cleveland and dispatch Notre Dame to reach the regional final and a payback game against Kentucky, which ended last year’s undefeated run. Refs don’t reward the Harrison twins for wild drives this year, and Wichita prevails to reach the Final Four. Loss there to Wisconsin does nothing to dampen spirits. Gregg Marshall again turns down other jobs to stay in Wichita. The Sunflower State belongs to the Shockers.

Worst Case: Committee looked at résumé that includes just two wins and three games against NCAA tournament teams and got it right with the No. 7 seed. Shockers’ one defensive weakness – 3-point defense – is exposed immediately by sharpshooting Indiana, which drops a dozen bombs on Wichita and eliminates the Shockers right away. Having won the game before, Kansas fans in the arena taunt Shockers for being too scared to advance and take on the Jayhawks. Baker goes pro a year early. Marshall finally gets enough money waved under his nose to bail for another job.

IndianaRecord: 20-13 (9-9 Big Ten)

Last 10 games: 4-6
Best wins: SMU, Butler, OSU, Md.
Key losses: L'ville, G-town, Md., Wisky
Leading scorer: Yogi Ferrell (16.1)

No. 10 INDIANA

Best Case: Hoosiers bomb the toxicity out of the air with a 3-point barrage that upsets Wichita State and advances them to the round of 32. Indiana plays an inspired game there against Kansas but can’t quite match up inside, falling in the last minute. Indiana fans climb off Tom Crean’s back long enough to let him coach next year’s team, which has everyone returning after Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr. make the wise choice and stay in school. Cincinnati becomes IU fans’ second-favorite program by taking out Purdue in the round of 64 and undefeated Kentucky in the round of 32. Quinn Buckner, Bobby Wilkerson and Scott May show up to spray champagne on the Bearcats’ team bus when it returns to campus.

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Worst Case: Toxicity is thicker than ever after the Hoosiers repay the selection committee’s kindness of A) letting them in and B) not putting them in Dayton by stinking it up against Wichita State. Soft defensive team cannot stop the Shockers, who get every shot they want and make more than half of them. The few Indiana fans who made the trip to Omaha turn on Crean quickly, and those back home join the chorus. A Gofundme.com site pops up as fans attempt to raise money and pay the $11 million buyout. Ferrell and Blackmon decide this isn’t much fun and go pro. Kentucky goes 40-0 and tells the ’76 Hoosiers to stuff it.

KansasRecord: 26-8 (13-5 B12)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: Utah, Okla., Baylor x3
Key losses: UK, ISU x2, Okla.
Leading scorer: Perry Ellis (13.8)

No. 2 KANSAS

Best Case: After a perfunctory punking of New Mexico State, the Jayhawks tell Wichita State, “Careful what you wish for.” Kansas beats down the uppity Shockers, putting them back in their place for the foreseeable future. In the Sweet 16, Bill Self’s hammer-it-in offense mauls Notre Dame inside to set up a date with Kentucky. Cocky after beating Kansas by 32 in November, the Wildcats aren’t ready for the challenge of a drastically improved team. Jayhawks don’t shoot 20 percent this time, battle admirably inside and Bill Self hands John Calipari another soul-crushing NCAA tournament defeat. Not finished there, Kansas marches into the Final Four and beats Wisconsin and Duke to win it all. Self signs 20-year contract extension and all underclassmen stay in school. Meanwhile, Iowa State loses early and Kim Anderson is still the coach at Missouri.

Worst Case: Locked in an unexpected battle with dangerous No. 15 seed New Mexico State, Jayhawks get that familiar, throat-tightening sensation – you know, the Bucknell, Bradley, VCU, Stanford sensation. Trailing by three late in the game, Self hits the cliché button and runs “Chop.” On the other bench, Marvin Menzies says, “Duh,” and orders his team to foul. Aggies win, having outplayed Cliff Alexander-less Kansas inside. Six players go pro early, led by Alexander, whose parents are seen signing with an agent 30 seconds after the final horn. Meanwhile, Iowa State wins it all.

New Mexico St.Record: 23-10 (13-1 WAC)

Last 10 games: 10-0
Best win: Seattle
Key losses: Wichita St., CSU
Leading scorer: Remi Barry (13.2)

No. 15 NEW MEXICO STATE

Best Case: Group that has lost just once in 2015 arrives in Omaha with plenty of confidence. Pascal Siakam, leading rejector on the nation’s No. 1 team in blocked shot percentage, swats a Wayne Selden 3-pointer at the buzzer to shock Kansas in the round of 64. Matched up with small Indiana in the round of 32, Aggies pull another blueblood stunner and make the Sweet 16 for the first time since a 1992 run that was vacated (pesky NCAA rules). Coach Marvin Menzies is hailed as a giant-killing oracle but professes his love of Las Cruces and stays there. Loss to Notre Dame does not dampen the enthusiasm of Aggies fans, who ask New Mexico backers how they’re enjoying the Noodles Neal era.

Worst Case: The reason why the Aggies have lost just once in 2015 becomes readily apparent – they’ve played in an awful Western Athletic Conference that in no way prepares them for the team that played the nation’s toughest schedule, Kansas. Blocking shots against Chicago State and Texas Pan American is easier than against the Jayhawks, who get all the good looks they want and convert them. Aggies are run out of Omaha first thing Friday, to the delight of New Mexico fans.