NCAA tournament East Region: Dream and nightmare scenarios

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What are the wildest dreams and darkest nightmare scenarios for every team in the NCAA tournament East Region? Yahoo Sports has answers.

More best-/worst-case scenarios from Pat Forde: Midwest | West | South

VillanovaRecord: 32-2 (16-2 Big East)

Last 10 games: 10-0
Best wins: Butler x2, VCU
Key losses: Seton Hall, Georgetown
Leading scorer: Darrun Hilliard (14.2)

No. 1 VILLANOVA

Best Case: What could be better, on the 30th anniversary of the Wildcats' near-perfect game to shock nearly unbeatable Georgetown for the national title, than a reprise of the whole thing? Minus Jake Nevin, unfortunately, but the rest of the building blocks are there. With Rollie Massimino, Ed Pinckney and even reclusive Harold Jensen in the stands watching, 'Nova shoots a preposterous percentage, controls the tempo and shocks nearly unbeatable Kentucky for the national title. This time it's Darrun Hilliard, Ryan Arcidiacono and Josh Hart doing the shooting, with JayVaughn Pinkston and Daniel Ochefu battling inside. To reach its Kentucky Moment, 'Nova sliced through Iowa State, Michigan State, Northern Iowa and North Carolina State – sharing the ball, hitting shots, not caring who got the glory. In a program built on teamwork, this is Jay Wright's most together team yet. The Wildcats are so good that announcers are able to resist trite prattle about Wright's sideline attire and concentrate on the actual game. After winning it all, Wright resists overtures from the NBA to stay at Villanova.

Worst Case: After dispatching Lafayette, Villanova runs into that most dangerous of No. 8 seeds, North Carolina State. The Wolfpack's talent is at least equal to the Wildcats', if not superior, and it shows as guards Cat Barber and Trevor Lacey outplay 'Nova's backcourt. With only vague memory of what it's like to be in a close game, the Wildcats start to sweat against a quality opponent and a coach with a history of pulling postseason upsets. Ochefu fouls out, Wright stresses out screaming at the officials, and 'Nova unravels. For the fifth straight time, the Wildcats fail to reach the Sweet 16. This being Philly, the fans are not pleased. Wright takes his pocket squares and heads to the NBA. Program slips back into Lappas-level lassitude.

LafayetteRecord: 20-12 (9-9 Patriot)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: Princeton, Bucknell
Key losses: Yale, Navy
Leading scorer: Dan Trist (17.7)

No. 16 LAFAYETTE

Best Case: The best case already has happened – the Leopards are here, despite 12 losses and a 9-9 regular-season record in the Patriot League. In 19 seasons, Fran O'Hanlon (a Villanova grad who still holds the single-game assist record with 16) is 18 games below .500. This is his third time taking the Leopards to the tourney, and the fourth time the school has made it. They have never won a game. They will not win this time. So it can only go downhill from here – but playing in Pittsburgh, fans are close enough to attend. Jay Wright takes it easy on a 'Nova alum and only beats the Leopards by 15 instead of 30. Lafayette can head back to Easton, Pa., with its pride intact.

Worst Case: Jay Wright doesn't take it easy on a 'Nova alum and beats O'Hanlon by 30. Not that it was hard – this is the worst defensive team in the tournament, capable of giving up plenty of open shots and plenty of offensive rebounds on the shots that miss. And Villanova has shooters. Leopards are buried quickly but have to play out the full 40 before heading back to Easton, Pa., without their pride intact.

N.C. StateRecord: 20-13 (10-8 ACC)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina
Key losses: Wake Forest, BC, Wofford
Leading scorer: Trevor Lacey (16.1)

No. 8 NORTH CAROLINA STATE

Best Case: Seated on a podium at Lucas Oil Stadium the day before the national championship game, Mark Gottfried has a message for everyone who has declared him a bad coach, "How ya like me now?" Gottfried has worked another March makeover on an underachieving team, but takes this one to the hilt – a 13-loss dog is on the brink of a national title. Group that was routed at home by Clemson and also lost to Boston College and Wake Forest morphs into a juggernaut, riding the backcourt of Cat Barber and Trevor Lacey to wins over LSU, Villanova, Louisville and Michigan State to reach the Final Four. Once there, the Wolfpack wins a rubber-match game with Duke. Kentucky stops the madness in the title game, but N.C. State's first Final Four since 1983 sends fan base into ecstasy – especially since the Pack eliminated Duke, and North Carolina was upset by Harvard. For added glee, the NCAA prepares to drop two megatons on Chapel Hill.

Worst Case: Thirteen-loss dog wets the hardwood in its first game against LSU. Big men miss a few shots early and guards stop passing them the ball. Defensive lapses lead to easy LSU baskets. Barber and Lacey combine to shoot 6 for 25. Gottfried squints cluelessly at the court, wondering what's going on out there. N.C. State is dismissed with extreme prejudice by a team that would not exactly qualify as well-coached. Pack backers who think 1983 was last week roar for Gottfried's head, demanding better. Their roars intensify as Duke and North Carolina both make the Final Four, and the Tar Heels walk away unscathed from their NCAA investigation.

LSURecord: 22-10 (11-7 SEC)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: Arkansas, West Virginia, Georgia
Key losses: Tennessee, Auburn x2
Leading scorer: Jarell Martin (16.9)

No. 9 LSU

Best Case: Any team with two NBA players should be able to make a move in the NCAA tournament, and the Tigers have two in frontcourt players Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin. That's enough to get LSU past North Carolina State, and the inside tandem thrives against smallish Villanova to spring the upset. Les Miles attends and applauds the "want" and "chest" he sees from the basketball Tigers, then inquires where in Pittsburgh he can find some chewable grass. Tigers take down Northern Iowa on a Keith Hornsby jump shot in the Sweet 16, and multiple media injuries result from stretching for clever references to his famous musician father, Bruce. LSU finally loses to Virginia in the regional final – a better-than-expected run for a team that was fortunate to make the field and very fortunate to get a No. 9 seed. Mickey and Martin surprise a lot of people by staying in school to join a ridiculous recruiting class and take a swing at the 2016 national title.

Worst Case: Team that should have been an 11 seed at best after nine – yes, nine! – losses to non-tournament opponents blows a great opportunity. In latter stages of a tight game with North Carolina State, LSU guards completely forget they have two NBA frontcourt players on the floor and jack up an array of bad shots. On the sideline, Johnny "Wooden" Jones offers no correction, instruction or guidance. Mickey and Martin try wearing name tags saying "Hi, My Name is…" but it doesn't work. Tigers score four points in the final seven minutes and cough up the game. Les Miles sticks up for Jones, saying that in-game coaching is less important than "want" and "chest," and the Tigers had plenty of that. Mickey and Martin both turn pro before the sweat on their uniforms is dry.

Northern IowaRecord: 30-3 (16-2 MVC)

Last 10 games: 9-1
Best wins: S.F. Austin, Wichita State
Key losses: VCU, Wichita State
Leading scorer: Seth Tuttle (15.6)

No. 5 NORTHERN IOWA

Best Case: Five years ago, Ali Farokhmanesh etched himself into March Madness lore with one recklessly wonderful shot. Now Seth Tuttle is ready to do him two better. In 2010 the Panthers shocked No. 1 seed Kansas and reached the Sweet 16; this year, with a better team and a kinder draw, they march all the way to Indy. The star is Tuttle, who merely leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and minutes. Tuttle tips in a missed shot to beat Louisville in the round of 32. Five days later he buries a jumper to upset top seed Villanova. Teammates take it from there, pushing the underseeded Panthers past Virginia in a brutal slog, 44-41, and into the Final Four. Run ends there with a loss to Duke, which is OK. Ben Jacobson is hailed for his coaching genius but stays true to UNI, resisting offers to go elsewhere. With Iowa and Iowa State both eliminated early, Cedar Falls is the capital of college basketball in the state. And don't think the Cedar Fallsians (Fallsites? Fallstaffs?) aren't reminding everyone of that.

Worst Case: Locked in a super slow-motion game with equally ponderous Wyoming, round-of-64 game has few possessions and comes down to the end. Leaping Larry Nance Jr. goes where the Northern Iowa defense cannot – up – and flushes a bold alley-oop in the final seconds. A desperate Wes Washpun drive is blocked, and the Panthers' 30-win season is over. Jacobson decides it's finally time to try a change of scenery. Iowa and Iowa State move on to meet in the Sweet 16, with the Cyclones then advancing to the Final Four. Cedar Fallsians (Fallsites? Falstaffs?) who were chirpy all season have to shut up and take it now from the rest of the state.

WyomingRecord: 25-9 (11-7 MWC)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: San Diego State
Key losses: SMU, San Diego State x2
Leading scorer: Larry Nance Jr. (16.1)

No. 12 WYOMING

Best Case: Pretty much left for dead after losing five of their past eight regular-season games, Cowboys harness the momentum they found in the Mountain West Conference tournament and ride it into the Big Dance. Most of that momentum is defense, which Wyoming plays with religious zeal. There is just enough scoring, from Josh Adams outside and Larry Nance Jr. inside, for the Cowboys to upset Northern Iowa by the electrifying score of 42-41. Wyoming lucks into a round-of-32 matchup with UC Irvine and exterminates the Anteaters, who are just tickled to still be playing. Luck ends in a Sweet 16 matchup with Villanova, but it's the deepest Wyoming run since 1987 (cue the Fennis Dembo flashbacks). All 600 residents of the state, plus a large buffalo herd, rejoice.

Worst Case: That "momentum" from the MWC tourney? It consists of three wins (one in overtime) by a total of nine points. That's not enough to pose a threat against a Northern Iowa team that probably deserved better than a No. 5 seed. Cowboys cannot shoot from the outside, cannot rebound their misses and cannot handle Seth Tuttle. Result is an emphatic loss, which is what you'd expect from a team that had seven MWC defeats. All 600 residents of the state, plus the large buffalo herd, carry on.

LouisvilleRecord: 24-8 (12-6 ACC)

Last 10 games: 5-5
Best wins: North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana
Key losses: Syracuse, N.C. State
Leading scorer: Terry Rozier (17.0)

No. 4 LOUISVILLE

Best Case: The gang that couldn't shoot straight finally gets some jumpers to fall – specifically Terry Rozier, who hasn't had a 50 percent shooting game since January and has made just 1 of his past 18 3-pointers. With Rozier back on track, Montrezl Harrell playing possessed inside and Wayne Blackshear teeing it up for his senior swan song, the Cardinals have just enough offense to get past UC Irvine and Northern Iowa in Seattle and advance to the Sweet 16 in Syracuse. There they begin the ACC reunion tour: Rick Pitino outcoaches Mark Gottfried and Louisville gets revenge on North Carolina State in the Sweet 16 for an earlier loss; Cards beat Virginia again in the Elite Eight; and finally Louisville loses to Duke in the Final Four. Third Final Four in four years is a rousing success for a team that at times looked ready to implode. Harrell goes pro but Rozier decides to stay for his junior year and work on his point-guard skills. Louisville fans dance in the streets and send bourbon to Bob Huggins when West Virginia shocks Kentucky in the Sweet 16, then celebrate a second time when John Calipari and eight Wildcats bolt for the NBA.

Worst Case: Emboldened by his fluke-miracle shot to beat Virginia, center Mangok Mathiang decides to try a fallaway 3-pointer at the end of a taut first half against UC Irvine. It misses everything, and a fuming Pitino benches him for the rest of the game. Midway through the second half, Pitino benches backup center Chinanu Onuaku for running the court like he needs an oxygen tank. With 30 seconds left in a tie game, third-string center Anas Mahmoud drops a rebound out of bounds to give the final possession to the Anteaters. Certifiably insane, Pitino inserts fourth-string 7-footer Matz Stockman for the first time since Jan. 13. Utterly freaked, Stockman fouls a shooter who makes the winning free throws. A season of playing four-on-five finally catches up with the Cardinals. After the loss, Pitino skips the annual "This is one of my favorite teams I've ever coached" spin and says he can't wait to blow up the roster that he recruited. Harrell and Rozier both go pro. Kentucky goes 40-0, and enough Wildcats say they're coming back that Pitino decides to retire rather than face another loss to Calipari. Louisville fans decide they cannot bear the gloating from Big Blue at the Kentucky Derby and skip the state holiday. They also cancel Christmas.

UC IrvineRecord: 21-12 (11-5 Big West)

Last 10 games: 7-3
Best wins: UCSB x2
Key losses: Arizona, Oregon
Leading scorer: Will Davis II (12.7)

No. 13 UC IRVINE

Best Case: Anteaters hit the Dance like they have ants in their pants. The first NCAA bid in school history yields excitement, not nerves, and they channel that into a rousing start against fourth-seeded Louisville. Dangerous 3-point shooting team gets good looks against the Cardinals' zone and makes them. Center tandem of 7-foot-6 Mamadou Ndiaye and 7-2 Ioannis Dimakopoulos provide an interior deterrent that leaves scattershooting Louisville firing blanks from the perimeter. UC Irvine weathers full-court pressure and holds on for the biggest victory in school history. As an added bonus, they draw Wyoming in a bracket-collapse round-of-32 game and win again. Leading scorer Will Davis looks into a CBS camera and declares that he's going to Disneyland – which makes sense; it's about 20 minutes away from campus. Anteaters float to Syracuse and barely mind the decapitation they receive there from Villanova. Their job is done. After three straight 20-win seasons, Russell Turner draws plenty of interest from other schools but pledges allegiance to UC Irvine.

Worst Case: A team that had a grand total of zero wins over the NCAA tournament field isn't going to get one now, against Louisville. Anteaters don't get to the foul line, which is an advantage for the sometimes foul-prone Cardinals. They don't like to play at a fast pace, which is out of their control as the Cards ramp up their press. They don't force many turnovers, which will come as a relief to Louisville's occasionally haphazard ball handlers. And yeah, they're nervous on a stage where Louisville's players all have been. Cardinals pounce early, Anteaters panic and get routed. Turner takes another job. And Disneyland is closed when UC Irvine gets home due to bad weather.

ProvidenceRecord: 22-11 (11-7 Big East)

Last 10 games: 5-5
Best wins: Notre Dame, Butler, Georgetown x2
Key losses: Villanova x3, Butler, Brown
Leading scorer: LaDontae Henton (20.1)

No. 6 PROVIDENCE

Best Case:: Not many teams have two better players than Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton, and two players can take you somewhere in the tourney. Namely, they can take you to the Final Four if things get crazy enough – and they do in the wild, wild East. Friars dispatch Boise State, then upset Oklahoma when the school's unintentionally ghoulish mascot unnerves Sooners guard Buddy Hield as he tries to shoot the tying free throws with a second left. In their first Sweet 16 since the Pete Gillen days, Dunn drops a triple-double on the Spartans. In a regional final with a karmic twist, Providence beats the coach who last took the school to the Final Four, Rick Pitino, and does it with the weapon he pioneered, the 3-pointer. Henton drops five of them and the Friars advance. Loss in Indy to Duke does not dampen the enthusiasm. Dunn comes back to school for his junior year and Ed Cooley gets a contract extension.

Worst Case: Biggest problem: Dayton should never have been a No. 11 seed, and they're playing in nearby Columbus with something approaching a homecourt advantage. Another problem: Friars shoot 31 percent from the 3-point line, which is poor, and Dayton guards the arc well. Flyers collapse on Dunn when he drives, and there aren't enough shooters to make Dayton pay for it. Providence big men get in foul trouble, they give up too many easy baskets, and the whole thing unravels. Friars hit bottom when mascot scares small children in the arena to tears. Dunn goes pro ASAP and Cooley gets the wandering eye looking at other jobs.

Boise StateRecord: 25-8 (14-4 MWC)

Last 10 games: 8-2
Best wins:San Diego State x2
Key losses: Wisconsin, N.C. State, Wyoming x2
Leading scorer: Derrick Marks (19.6)

No. 11 BOISE STATE

Best Case: Broncos have played 22 minutes of bad basketball in the past month, and unfortunately it came in the Mountain West tournament semifinals and bumped them down to a play-in 11th seed and a true road game against Dayton. But Boise State is up for the battle, and Leon Rice's best defensive team doesn't mind grinding one out against the Flyers. Derrick Marks leads the Boise victory – its first ever in the NCAA tourney – and then keys an upset of Providence two days later with Ian Johnson in the stands. Run ends in Syracuse against Virginia, but Boise basketball has never been better. Rice signs long-term extension to stay on the bus.

Worst Case: Lousy draw – an underseeded team playing on its home floor – yields lousy result. Broncos put into a horrible position by the selection committee, playing a team that is 16-0 at home this year. Dayton makes it 17-0 in rapid order, as they run a parade to the foul line and grab control of the game early. Boise drops to 0-7 all-time in the NCAA tournament, and with the nucleus of a nice three-year run graduating, Rice decides it's time to go, too. Bus pulls out of town, may not return for a while.

DaytonRecord: 25-8 (13-5 A-10)

Last 10 games: 7-3
Best wins: Texas A&M, Mississippi, VCU
Key losses: Arkansas, Davidson, VCU
Leading scorer: Jordan Sibert (16.6)

No. 11 DAYTON

Best Case: Flyers got bizarre treatment from the committee – done dirty on seeding, but given the first true home game anyone has had in many years. They make the best of the location, riding the usual huge homecourt advantage to their 22nd straight victory at UD Arena. After a short commute to Columbus, Flyers again feel the crowd love, crank up the defense and beat Providence. They beat vulnerable Oklahoma on a driving Dyshawn Pierre basket and advance to their second straight Sweet 16. Archie Miller becomes a certified rock star in the coaching profession, even though the run ends with a loss to Virginia. Miller again turns down other jobs, knowing that next year's team could really be special.

Worst Case: The thing about Dayton's long home-court winning streak? None of the vanquished ranked in Ken Pomeroy's top 40. Boise State is No. 38. Thus, this is a new level of challenge for the Flyers, and after a somewhat shaky final four games of the season (2-2, with a loss to LaSalle) they're ripe to be beaten. Mediocre team outside the arc cannot buy a 3-pointer, and Dayton is hatin' life after being eliminated before even getting into the main bracket. Miller is offered every open job and picks the one he wants. Oliver Purnell lets it be known he's available for a return engagement.

OklahomaRecord: 22-10 (12-6 Big 12)

Last 10 games: 7-3
Best wins: Kansas, Iowa State, Butler, Baylor
Key losses: Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State x2
Leading scorer: Buddy Hield (17.4)

No. 3 OKLAHOMA

Best Case: In a welcome change of subject from racist fraternity videos, the Sooners make a thrilling charge to their first Final Four since 2002. Buddy Hield reveals himself to the nation at large as a star, averaging 24 points in victories over Albany, Providence, Michigan State and Northern Iowa. Well-traveled Lon Kruger reinforces his reputation as an underappreciated coach, getting back to the Final Four for the first time since 1994. Ryan Spangler makes up for the crushing blown layup at the Big 12 tournament by making the winning put-back in the regional final. Oklahoma State and Texas both lose their first games. As an added bonus, Bob Stoops' rejiggered coaching staff seems to know what it's doing in spring ball.

Worst Case: Sooners don't do enough to change the troubling subject, getting ambushed in Columbus by team of destiny Albany. Indiscriminate shot selection leads to a boatload of misses, and the Great Danes do a serviceable job on the backboard. One-and-done bummer reinforces concerns about Kruger as a tournament coach – it's his sixth straight NCAA tourney loss, with the last victory in 2008. Hield never gets a proper chance to show off, and Spangler never gets a proper chance to atone. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State and Texas both advance, and the Sooners still look futile in spring football.

AlbanyRecord: 24-8 (15-1 AEC)

Last 10 games: 9-1
Best wins: Stony Brook x2
Key losses: Providence, Bucknell, Stony Brook
Leading scorer: Sam Rowley (14.3)

No. 14 ALBANY

Best Case: With America rooting for Peter Hooley, the heavy-hearted Aussie continues his inspired play. He scores 20 against Oklahoma and hits the winning jumper again, as the Great Danes earn their first NCAA tourney victory in school history. Matched up against No. 11 seed Boise State in the round of 32, Albany does it again – slowing the pace, handling the ball, making free throws and winning another nail-biter. Suddenly the Danes are in the Sweet 16 and the darlings of the Dance, a national sensation. Hooley is on every network morning show. Coach Will Brown is dispensing wit and wisdom. Freshman Greig Stire is giving haircuts to media members. It's madness. March Madness. Feel-good madness. It ends against Michigan State, but the Danes have done plenty.

Worst Case: Emotionally spent from the America East tournament, Great Danes bring little more than a great storyline to Columbus. They're tired, they don't match up with Oklahoma's perimeter athletes, and they give up too many open threes. Albany is routed and returns home to a fresh layer of spring snow, still all-time winless in the tournament.

Michigan StateRecord: 23-11 (12-6 Big Ten)

Last 10 games: 7-3
Best wins: Maryland, Indiana x2
Key losses: Wisconsin x2, Maryland x2, Duke, Kansas, Notre Dame
Leading scorer: Travis Trice (14.8)

No. 7 MICHIGAN STATE

Best Case: If you watched Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament, you saw a team that now can play with anyone. A team that is dangerously underseeded at No. 7. A team that nobody will want to play – starting with poor Georgia in the round of 64. Spartans rout the Bulldogs, then set their sights on vulnerable Virginia and take the Cavaliers out, too. With Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice both hitting from the outside and Branden Dawson scattering bodies inside, this suddenly looks like a legit Tom Izzo team. Spartans keep rolling past Providence and Northern Iowa to reach the Final Four. Izzo is so tickled he plays a polka on his accordion as his players cut down the nets. They wear down Iowa State with physical defense in the semifinals before finally succumbing to Kentucky in the title game. Izzo's seventh Final Four comes from farthest out, as a seven seed. Euphoria takes spotlight away from offseason football issues in East Lansing and Harbaugh Mania in Ann Arbor.

Worst Case: Harbaugh Mania still holds sway after a flat Michigan State team is quickly eliminated by Georgia. Early tipoff time Friday is less than five days after the Spartans played their overtime donnybrook against Wisconsin, and they're lured into a listless pace by an opponent determined to play halfcourt ball. Valentine and Trice are both off, Dawson doesn't get enough touches and the offense bogs down. Michigan State is bounced in the round of 64 for the first time since 2011. Accordion never makes an appearance. Fed up with recruiting, Izzo finally follows through on all the flirtations with the NBA and bolts.

GeorgiaRecord: 21-11 (11-7 SEC)

Last 10 games: 6-4
Best wins: Kansas State
Key losses: Gonzaga, Arkansas x2, Kentucky
Leading scorer: Marcus Thornton (12.2)

No. 10 GEORGIA

Best Case: Having lived on the hot seat for years, Mark Fox enjoys the cold jolt of a Gatorade bath in the locker room after the Bulldogs upset Michigan State for their first NCAA tournament win since 2002. With Marcus Thornton and Nemanja Djurisic in the frontcourt and Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines in the backcourt, Fox has some pieces, and he uses them to skillfully slow the Spartans' break and win in the halfcourt. Aided by the fantastic good fortune of Belmont upsetting Virginia, Georgia bounces the Bruins and wanders into the Sweet 16. Students party in the square in Athens like they just beat Alabama in football. Run ends there, but SEC commissioner Mike Slive is appreciative of every tournament advancement perpetrated by a school not named Kentucky or Florida. Slive sends a note to football schedule master Larry Templeton telling him to give the Bulldogs preferential kickoff times where possible in the fall.

Worst Case: To paraphrase a popular meme, Mark Richt has lost control of the basketball program. Bulldogs are rocked onto their heels by Michigan State's aggressiveness and flail offensively. Team that scored 49 in a loss to Arkansas and 50 and 58 in two losses to South Carolina turns in another dud and is summarily routed by the locked-in Spartans. Students party in the square because they're students, and it's the square, and what the basketball team does won't keep any of them from their Fireball. Despite a successful season, loss edges Fox back toward the hot seat going into next year, and puts more pressure on Richt to get control of everything that surrounds him.

VirginiaRecord: 29-3 (16-2 ACC)

Last 10 games: 8-2
Best wins: Maryland, Notre Dame, UNC, L'ville
Key losses: Duke, L'ville, UNC
Leading scorer: Malcolm Brogdon (13.7)

No. 2 VIRGINIA

Best Case: Boring is beautiful. Embrace The Pace rallying cry echoes through Charlotte, on to Syracuse and finally to Indianapolis. Tony Bennett, master of slow-motion basketball, and his band of joined-at-the-hip role players achieve what Terry Holland and Ralph Sampson could not. They win a national championship. Cavaliers fight their way out of a tough early draw, beating Belmont and Michigan State, then happily embrace the re-emergence of no-longer-rusty Justin Anderson. He leads Virginia past Providence and Villanova to reach the Final Four. Once there, Cavaliers exact revenge upon Duke in the semifinals and get their long-speculated-upon shot at Kentucky. Bennett outcoaches John Calipari, refuses to let the Wildcats beat his team in transition and refuses to let them own the backboard. Virginia has scoring droughts, but forces Kentucky to endure them as well. Virginia wins by the utterly Virginia score of 53-49. Back in Charlottesville, The Lawn celebration is so loud it threatens to awaken Thomas Jefferson's ghost.

Worst Case: Anderson never does return to peak form, and there is nobody to replace his lost combination of athleticism and skill. The scoring droughts continue – indeed, they lengthen. The burden of season-long expectation mounts. And against an offensively skilled Belmont team that is playing with house money, Virginia folds. Team that has played at least one really poor half in every game this month has another slow start, and the Bruins keep the pressure on by making shots. The Cavaliers are one-and-done, and like so many other times in school history a great opportunity evaporates. All that emotional investment in boring basketball, and nothing to show for it. Rest of nation rejoices at not having to watch three weeks of Virginia killing the clock. The Lawn is solemn. Jefferson's ghost sleeps.

BelmontRecord: 22-10 (11-5 Ohio Valley)

Last 10 games: 7-3
Best wins: Murray State
Key losses: VCU, Butler, Murray State
Leading scorer: Craig Bradshaw (17.9)

No. 15 BELMONT

Best Case: Rick Byrd, the genial offensive maestro in the sweater vest, has a little something for Virginia. He has a perimeter passing attack and dazzling shooters who will dilate the pupils of any basketball purist with their well-drilled skill. The Bruins unleash that on a Cavaliers team that has its eyes peeking ahead at Michigan State, and the result is lethal. Craig Bradshaw goes off and Taylor Barnette hits another game-winner as Belmont upsets the No. 2-seeded Cavs. As luck would have it, Georgia also upsets Michigan State, and Belmont draws a Bulldogs team that is highly beatable. If country music had any happy songs, they'd write one in Nashville about the hometown Bruins' miracle appearance in the Sweet 16. Even with no musical accompaniment, Byrd can hum a few bars. Road ends in Syracuse, but this is the program's finest hour.

Worst Case: Byrd is indeed an offensive maestro, but his defense is a mess. Belmont yields plenty of good shots, doesn't control the paint and doesn't shut off drivers well. The result: Patient Virginia runs a layup line on the Bruins, while simultaneously locking down on their shooters at the other end. Belmont lost eight times to non-tourney teams, and it surely can lose to a No. 2 seed in the tourney. Bruins are back home before anyone in Nashville even thinks of writing a song about them.