NBA scout explains how several Heat players have changed perception and potential salary

How have these Heat players changed the perception of themselves during this playoff run?

A longtime Eastern Conference scout, who watched the Heat a lot this season, offered thoughts a day before the NBA Finals began on Thursday:

▪ Caleb Martin: “You have to be cautious about drawing conclusions from this small a sample size; there’s such a gap between what he had done and how he played in the Boston series. But he’s gone way up in estimation because he did it on the biggest stage against Boston.

“Everyone has seen him and knew he was an excellent defender who can make a shot, but nobody had seen this -- a guy who’s a 20 point a game scorer and shooting 50 [percent] on threes. Plus, his self creation ability has really impressed me. He gets to the basket and he finishes. He’s not pigeonholed into being a spot up and catch shooter. He showed he’s a pull up guy, too. He really has becomes a three-level scorer.

“He has played out of his mind entering the Finals. The question is if it’s something he can maintain at this level or close to it. The fact he has done it at this time of the year is significant. Boston didn’t pay attention to him. He will be on the scouting report more.”

Is it safe to say he’s a good NBA starting power forward moving forward, even at 6-5? “I’m not sure. Against teams with taller bigs, it’s a tough way to go. On the other hand, they have to guard him, too, and that creates problems [for opponents]. As far as being a starting four, it might be system and matchup specific.”

Martin has two years remaining on a contract that will pay him $6.8 million and $7.1 million the next two seasons. But if Martin plays well next season, he likely would opt out of his 2023-24 salary ($7.1 million) with the hope of snagging a larger contract in free agency next summer.

▪ Gabe Vincent: “I’ve gone from thinking this guy is a good $3 million backup to a $10 million, $11 million player; he’s worth that in today’s NBA. The guy has produced when it counts, and that’s what teams are looking for. He has risen to the occasion.

“He’s up and down at times with his shooting, but he’s a clutch shooter, and that means something. He has got cojones. He’s never afraid of the moment. You get high effort defensively. Decent playmaker, has toughness. To me, his value correlates a lot to his scoring.”

(ESPN analyst and former Nets executive Bobby Marks told me 2 1/2 weeks ago that Vincent - who’s earning $1.9 million this season - is poised to get potentially $9 million annually in free agency this summer. He has only helped himself since and is now likely in the $12 million range.)

▪ Duncan Robinson: “The contract is more movable now than it seemed before the playoffs. Before, it was a complete albatross contract. Now people are maybe going to take a second look and say this guy is much more viable and producing when it counts.”

Robinson -- completing the second year of a five-year, $90 million contract -- is owed $18.1 million, $19.4 million and $19.9 million over the next three seasons. Only half of the final year salary is guaranteed.

“He’s more closely living up somewhat to his contract, which I’m sure is a great relief to the powers that be there,” the scout said. “He’s showing he has got more to his game than the three-point shooting, showing more stuff without the ball, has gotten to the basket a few times. He’s really good at moving without the ball. At least he gives effort defensively. Maybe they should have played him more this season.”

The scout said to dump Robinson’s contract alone, the Heat likely still would need to attach a carrot, which Miami has been reluctant to do. But he also could be part of a larger trade -- in other words, salary cap ballast -- as part of a larger trade.

▪ Jimmy Butler: “Before this run, I would have said he’s a top 20 player in the league. He’s got to be top 10. His competitiveness is top three, the will to win is All NBA quality. And he does it when it counts. A little surprised where he has gotten them. His record speaks for itself.”

▪ Max Strus: “He hasn’t really changed my perception. Pretty good backup wing who can start, but I like him as a backup. You’ve got to guard him and he’s got more game than just threes. He’s a better defender than people realize.

“The thing that some of these Heat players have to overcome is a perception that they’re better in that system. Josh Richardson is a good example of the Miami factor; He wasn’t as good after he left.”

Richardson averaged 16.6 points in his final season with the Heat (2018-19) and never approached that again.

(Marks told me 2 1/2 weeks ago that Strus is poised to get the $12.2 million non taxpaper midlevel exception in free agency this summer.)

Strus and Vincent have Bird Rights, meaning the Heat -- which is way over next year’s salary cap -- has the capacity to keep them.

▪ Bam Adebayo: “He does all these other things, but he’s been disappointing in some ways to me, still has not shown he can be a reliable scorer when it counts.” The next day, Adebayo erupted for 26 against Denver, his best offensive game of these playoffs.

“Is he really a No. 2 guy offensively? Maybe he’s your No. 3 guy offensively. Maybe he just needs to simplify his game, make a 15 foot shot or whatever” and not try to force post-ups.

“He was really clumsy with the ball against Boston. That said, they’re in the Finals. Is there max [salary] value to being able to defend all five positions at a high level? Yes, or close to it. That’s very valuable. But you would like more consistency offensively.”

▪ Kyle Lowry: “He has shown he’s got enough to occasionally be productive. On balance, he’s been a plus [during this playoff run]. He’s still dangerous, can make a shot. He’s not done.

“They haven’t gotten the value they expected, but he can help you win some games. Damian Lillard would make a lot of sense for them if they can get him” - with such a move likely requiring Tyler Herro and first-round picks as a starting point. Lillard, to this point, has not requested a trade.