Most bettors believe the Phoenix Suns are primed to bounce back on Saturday night.
The Suns jumped out to a 2-0 series lead over the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Finals, but the Bucks evened the series at two games apiece by winning Games 3 and 4 at home. Game 3 came down to the wire, but the Bucks pulled away late and won 109-103 thanks to clutch buckets from Khris Middleton and an unbelievable block from Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Now the series is back in Phoenix on Saturday night and the Suns are favored by four points at BetMGM.
The home team has won and covered the spread in all four Finals games so far, and the majority of bettors believe that trend will continue. According to BetMGM, 72% of the bets and 66% of the money is on the Suns -4.
Most of the moneyline action is on the Suns, too — 55% of the bets and 68% of the money. The Suns are -175 on the moneyline. The Bucks have +145 odds.
The most popular prop bets for Game 5 are the Bucks winning by 6-10 points at +525, Antetokounmpo scoring the first field goal at +475 and Chris Paul scoring over 20.5 points at -110.
Huge bet on the over/under
The over hit in the first two games of the series, both of which were played in Phoenix. Games 3 and 4 were back in Milwaukee, and the under hit. With the series back in Phoenix, most bettors think an over is coming on Saturday night.
The total opened at 218.5 at BetMGM, but has since ticked down a point to 217.5. Despite that line movement, 75% of the bets and 73% of the money is on the over.
That includes a $115,000 bet on the over at -115. That bettor would win $100,000.
How have the series odds shifted?
As of Saturday, the Suns are only slight favorites to win the series at -150 while the Bucks sit at +125. It’s a pretty drastic swing from where the odds were before Game 3 when the Suns held a 2-0 lead.
The Suns opened the series at -190, but those odds grew to -500 after they took a 2-0 lead. At that point, the Bucks were +375 to win the series. When the Bucks won Game 3, the Suns were -275 and the Bucks were +225.
Ahead of Game 5, the odds have shifted significantly in the Bucks’ favor.
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