Y! Picks: AAA Texas 500

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Track Facts

Venue: Texas Motor Speedway
Race length: 501 miles
No. of laps: 334
Qualifying: Fri., 4:30 p.m. ET
Race: Sun., 3:16 p.m. ET (ESPN)
STAT OF THE WEEK
Trouble ahead? In eight races at Texas, Brad Keselowski's best finish is 14th.
APRIL RACE
Top 5
1. Greg Biffle
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Mark Martin
4. Jeff Gordon
5. Matt Kenseth
RECENT FALL WINNERS
2011: Tony Stewart
2010: Denny Hamlin
2009: Kurt Busch
2008: Carl Edwards
2007: Jimmie Johnson
2006: Tony Stewart
2005: Carl Edwards
ALSO THIS WEEKEND:
Nationwide Series
O'Reilly Auto Parts Challenge, Texas Motor Speedway, Sat., 7:46 p.m.

Camping World Truck Series
Kroger 200, Texas Motor Speedway, Fri., 8:19 p.m.

EXPERT STANDINGS
NOTE: Jay Hart ended the regular season with 816 points, followed by Jay Busbee with 775 and Nick Bromberg with 755.
Busbee:  2,246 points (4 wins)
Bromberg:  2,225 points (1 win)
Hart:  2,222 points (5 wins)
YAHOO! SPORTS FANTASY AUTO RACING
Check your team | Expert picks
Texas preview (PDF)

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for Sunday's AAA Texas 500.

Tony Stewart is the defending race winner.

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Who Will Win?

Denny Hamlin: He probably saw his best chance at a Cup go up in a haze of flickering lights last week at Martinsville, but Denny Hamlin really needs to prove he's an elite driver for all 36 races. A win at Texas, where he's had success in the past, won't bring him a championship, but it could save some face. – Jay Busbee

Brad Keselowski: Let's trade the points lead again this week. Keselowski basically beat Johnson heads-up at Chicagoland in the first race of the Chase, and much like Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards last year, he'll take the checkered flag just ahead of Johnson, jumping ahead by a point in the standings with two races to go. – Nick Bromberg

Matt Kenseth: The race to watch will between Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski, but the race for the win goes through the Roush garage. Kenseth, who won a few weeks ago at Kansas, another 1.5-mile track, gets his third win of the Chase. Not that it matters. – Jay Hart

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Top Storyline

Cautions! In case you've forgotten (and I don't blame you if you have), the spring Texas race featured two cautions, both of which came in the first 100 laps. We're not going to see a stretch of 234 laps of straight green-flag racing Sunday, right? – Nick Bromberg

It's going to be fascinating watching the differing strategies employed by the No. 2 and No. 48 teams. Will they race to win, will they race to stay out of trouble, or will they race each other? Expect Keselowski's team to be glued to the radio transmissions of Chad Knaus … and Knaus knows that's happening. Psychological warfare! These are going to be three good races to close out the season. – Jay Busbee

What will Keselowski do? Brad finished 36th at Texas earlier this season. Another finish like that and we can crown Jimmie Johnson now. We know Double J will run well this weekend. We expect Keselowski will, but we don't quite know that for sure. – Jay Hart

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FROM THE SOURCE

"While we aren't being overlooked by any means, there are many who think that we are still too young of a team to seriously challenge the 48 team [Jimmie Johnson]. We like it that way. In reality, we are a very good race team that is primed to take this fight right down to the last lap at Homestead-Miami Speedway." – Brad Keselowski