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Mostly NFL Notes: A 2016 AFC Season Preview

Lamar Miller is poised for a huge year and more predictions in an AFC Season Preview (Getty Images)
Lamar Miller is poised for a huge year and more predictions in an AFC Season Preview (Getty Images)

AFC East

  1. New England Patriots 12-4

  2. New York Jets 8-8

  3. Buffalo Bills 7-9

  4. Miami Dolphins 6-10

Comments/Fantasy predictions: New England gets three home games all in which they’ll be favored during the four weeks Tom Brady is suspended, so they’ll be just fine as usual…Martellus Bennett scores 10 touchdowns, while Chris Hogan finishes with more fantasy points than Michael CrabtreeBrandon Marshall and Eric Decker scored touchdowns on one out of every 11.7 targets last season. The rest of the Jets were targeted 42.4 times for every TDMatt Forte doesn’t finish as a top-20 fantasy running back.

Tyrod Taylor easily leads the NFL in rushing yards among quarterbacks, while LeSean McCoy bounces back with RB1 numbers…The only thing that can prevent Sammy Watkins from producing a top-five WR fantasy season is health…Opposing kickers were an NFL worst 21-of-29 on FG attempts (and even missed three extra points) against the Dolphins last season…There are a lot of young players on the roster capable of breaking out, but Ryan Tannehill (career 6.9 YPA) ultimately holds them back…Jordan Cameron isn’t worth rostering even in 2TE leagues, while DeVante Parker emerges as the team’s top option on offense.

Headlines of the Week: Diaper-Wearing Monkey Gets Loose, Scuffles With Walmart Employee In Parking LotWoman Cleans Out Messy Purse, Finds $157,000 Lottery TicketHungover Customer Brings Heaps Of Business To Struggling Fish And Chip ShopHickey Kills Teenager In Mexico CityFisherman Kept Possibly World’s Largest Pearl Worth $100 Million For 10 Years Under His Bed.

AFC North

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6

  2. Baltimore Ravens 9-7 (Wild Card)

  3. Cincinnati Bengals 9-7

  4. Cleveland Browns 3-13

Comments/Fantasy predictions: During Ben Roethlisberger’s last 16 full games, Antonio Brown has posted a 152-2039-12 line. He also typically puts up bigger stats when Le’Veon Bell is out. Like when it used to be unfair having the No. 1 pick in LaDainian Tomlinson’s prime, so is the case right now in PPR leagues…Jesse James leads all Pittsburgh tight ends in fantasy scoring, while Sammie Coates proves to be much more productive than Markus Wheaton despite a lackluster preseason…Le’Veon Bell is the No. 1 fantasy player over the final 10 weeks of the season, and it’s not particularly close.

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The next time Joe Flacco gets 7.5 YPA or throws for 4,000 yards will be his first…Baltimore’s backfield remains a mess for fantasy owners throughout the season, while Mike Wallace leads all Ravens wide receivers in points…Jeremy Hill leads the NFL with 13 rushing touchdowns, while Tyler Boyd quickly passes Brandon LaFell on the depth chart…The Browns (and 49ers) are underdogs in each of the first 16 weeks of the season (no one releases Week 17 lines this time of year), which doesn’t seem particularly encouraging…Robert Griffin shows flashes of his old self but ultimately succumbs to another injury, while Gary Barnidge finishes with more fantasy points than Coby Fleener.

Police Blotter: Murder Suspect Tells Judge He’s Seen Trial On TV, Doesn’t Need AttorneyMan Dressed As Superhero Steals Beer From StoreWoman Discharged From Hospital Steals Ambulance To Drive HomeTeenager On The Run Responds To Police On FB, Asks Them To Use Better Picture Of HerPolice Perform Heimlich To Save Man’s Life, Arrest Him Over Drugs He Coughed Up.

AFC South

  1. Indianapolis Colts 9-7

  2. Houston Texans 8-8

  3. Tennessee Titans 6-10

  4. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10

Comments/Fantasy predictions: The Colts have gone 56 straight games without a 100-yard rusher. Meanwhile, if Frank Gore rushes for 1,000 yards he’ll be the first 33-year-old to do so since 1984…Andrew Luck bounces back with a big season, while T.Y. Hilton is a top-10 fantasy wide receiver and Donte Moncrief is top 20…Lamar Miller has a huge year and is a top-five pick in 2017 fantasy drafts, while Will Fuller ends the year in the top-five in both yards-per-catch and drops.

No Titans running back has rushed for 100 yards in a game in either of the past two seasons, but two different ones will in 2016…Marcus Mariota ends the year with QB1 numbers, while Derrick Henry is drafted as an RB1 in 2017…Tajae Sharpe finishes with more fantasy points than Kevin White despite sporting an ADP that’s nearly 100 spots lower.

Jacksonville may very well make the leap, but its schedule isn’t easy, and signing a bunch of defensive free agents doesn’t exactly always translate to big immediate improvements…Which should lead to more fantasy goodness from the team’s passing attack, even if Blake Bortles continues to sport a lackluster YPA…The Jaguars had just five rushing touchdowns last season so enter Chris Ivory, whose 30 carries inside the five-yard line led the NFL over the past two seasons…Allen Robinson finishes as a top-three fantasy wide receiver, while Allen Hurns goes down as one of the better WR bargains. He just had 1,000+ yards with 10 touchdowns over 15 games as a sophomore and is being drafted outside the top-30 among wideouts.

Song of the Week: My Morning Jacket – Evil Urges

Longread of the Week: Is America Any Safer?

AFC West

  1. Denver Broncos 10-6

  2. San Diego Chargers 9-7 (Wild Card)

  3. Kansas City Chiefs 9-7

  4. Oakland Raiders 8-8

Comments/Fantasy predictions: It’s a near certainty the Broncos defense regresses, but it can do so by a decent margin and still easily be the league’s best…The defending Super Bowl champions are starting a quarterback with zero career pass attempts who was drafted just six picks before “Mr. Irrelevant” in 2015…Unlike Jordan Howard, Paul Perkins, Keith Marshall, Wendell Smallwood, C.J. Prosise and Kenneth Dixon, Devontae Booker is the rare rookie back hyped throughout summer who actually won his team’s backup job (DeAndre Washington appears to have as well)…C.J. Anderson finishes with more fantasy points than Adrian Peterson and is a first round pick in 2017.

The Chargers are a surprise playoff team, led by big seasons from Philip Rivers and Keenan AllenDanny Woodhead once again scores more fantasy points than Melvin Gordon, while Antonio Gates becomes the all-time leader in TD receptions by a tight end…Tyrell Williams is a sleeper for those in deep leagues…Spencer Ware’s floor is six touchdowns even if Jamaal Charles stays healthy, and if the latter goes down, Ware becomes a weekly RB1…Travis Kelce’s usage continues to frustrate his owners, while those who draft Jeremy Maclin are plenty happy.

Derek Carr’s efficiency remains a problem for the Raiders but volume makes up for it for his fantasy owners…After playing through plantar fasciitis last season, Amari Cooper goes nuts in year two, while Clive Walford lives up to his sleeper label…Michael Crabtree, who never topped 70 yards over the final eight games last year (when he totaled 331 yards), disappoints his owners, who on average are currently taking him over Sterling ShepardKhalil Mack wins Defensive Player of the Year.

Check back Tuesday for my NFC preview and year-end predictions.

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