Will Miami’s real estate boom end in 2022?

·3 min read

Expecting to see a real estate bubble burst in 2022? Keep dreaming, real estate experts say.

Five experts shared their insights on the regional housing market. This year Miami-Dade achieved a historic median sale price for single-family homes — $515,000 in May — and in June the highest number of deals closed in a single month in 30 years. Condominium sales have been strong, particularly on the coast. These five anticipate similar robust activity to continue in the new year, but they differ on how long sales and median prices will keep advancing. Their perspectives are condensed and edited for clarity.

“If omicorn ends up being a real presence this winter, it will only boost sales in Miami,” said Ana Bozovic, founder and real estate market analyst of Analytics Miami.
“If omicorn ends up being a real presence this winter, it will only boost sales in Miami,” said Ana Bozovic, founder and real estate market analyst of Analytics Miami.

Ana Bozovic, founder of Analytics Miami

If omicorn ends up lingering this winter, it will boost sales in Miami. It stands to reason that Florida will continue to be less aggressive in regards to public health mandates and coronavirus pandemic lockdowns. While our tax advantage and weather are compelling, many people also are voting with their feet and moving to states like Florida perceived as more respectful to personal freedoms.

“I’m predicting that both condos and single-family homes will undergo price increases for the next three years due to the inventory imbalance, as well as supply chain delays impacting construction timelines,” said Fernando de Nuñez y Lugones, development division executive vice president of ONE Sotheby’s International Realty.
“I’m predicting that both condos and single-family homes will undergo price increases for the next three years due to the inventory imbalance, as well as supply chain delays impacting construction timelines,” said Fernando de Nuñez y Lugones, development division executive vice president of ONE Sotheby’s International Realty.

Fernando de Nuñez y Lugones, development division executive vice president of ONE Sotheby’s International Realty

Both condos and single-family homes will have price increases for the next three years due to the inventory imbalance, as well as supply chain delays affecting housing construction.

“Omicron could play a role as well as any other variants as the pandemic can result in travel restrictions which can limit domestic as well as foreign travel,” said Danny Hertzberg, a sales associate for The Jills Zeder Group.
“Omicron could play a role as well as any other variants as the pandemic can result in travel restrictions which can limit domestic as well as foreign travel,” said Danny Hertzberg, a sales associate for The Jills Zeder Group.

Danny Hertzberg, a sales associate for The Jills Zeder Group

Prior to the pandemic, the Miami market was reliant on buyers from South and Central America as well as the ebbs and flows of those economies and political environments. Now our market has become much more diversified in relation to demand, and this diversification, may be one of the most important signs of the market’s continued health. Omicron will play a role in 2022, as well as any other emerging variants. We are not experiencing the anticipated uptick of international buyers at the end of this year due to variant-related concerns. However, pre-construction condo projects should remain unaffected, since many of these sales occur remotely to international buyers after showing them project renderings.

“We will see strengthening in areas that are not on the ocean, but are close to downtown and Brickell or have good transit access,” said Andrea Heuson, professor at University of Miami Herbert Business School.
“We will see strengthening in areas that are not on the ocean, but are close to downtown and Brickell or have good transit access,” said Andrea Heuson, professor at University of Miami Herbert Business School.

Andrea Heuson, professor at University of Miami’s Herbert Business School

We will see condo market strengthening in Miami areas close to downtown and Brickell, and neighborhoods with good transit access, but softening sales on the ocean. For example, there has been a flurry of home sales activity in Wynwood, Allapattah and Hialeah sections, all west but with reliable transit options. Neither the challenges of sea level rise nor traffic are going away. In Broward and Palm Beach counties, single-family home sales will gain popularity.

“We’ll plateau in a year or two from now. What it means is more modest price appreciation and sales activity instead of the rocketship that we’re experiencing right now,” said Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel real estate appraisers and consultants.
“We’ll plateau in a year or two from now. What it means is more modest price appreciation and sales activity instead of the rocketship that we’re experiencing right now,” said Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel real estate appraisers and consultants.

Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel real estate appraisers and consultants

The other side of this boom in 2023 or 2024 is going to be characterized by a plateau instead of a correction. The bubble of more than a decade ago was caused by financial engineering, all kinds of fraud. That’s not prevalent in this housing cycle. What it means is more modest price appreciation and sales activity ahead instead of the rocketship we’re experiencing right now.

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